Two latest Polls: Conservative still in lead (smaller)


Jersay
#1
SES Research January 04:

Liberal: 33

Conservative: 35

NDP: 15

BLOC: 12

Green: 5

Ekos January 04:

Liberal: 30.4

Conservative: 36.2

NDP: 17.9

BLOC: 10.4

Green: 4.7

Seat Projection:

Ekos January 04:

Lib: 86

Con: 133

NDP: 35

Bloc: 53

Other: 1

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...ection%2C_2006

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadia...#Opinion_polls
 
paulmartin
#2
I hope the NDP end up getting more seats than the Liberals to be honest. 1 or 2 more scandals ought to do it.
I think the turnout for this vote will be the part that the pollsters miss. If the turnout is high the chances are good the liberals are in big trouble. Canadians don't like being ripped off and they'll say it by bothering to vote anything but liberal.
 
Jersay
#3
Quote:

I hope the NDP end up getting more seats than the Liberals to be honest. 1 or 2 more scandals ought to do it.
I think the turnout for this vote will be the part that the pollsters miss. If the turnout is high the chances are good the liberals are in big trouble. Canadians don't like being ripped off and they'll say it by bothering to vote anything but liberal.

Hopefully another few scandals by the Liberals and if the Conservatives can implode then the NDP can form the next government. But that is a dream, at least this election. However, if the NDP does get more seats, I heard that because of Strategic voting they could possibly take 60, it would be good.

And hopefully more people turn out the better, anyway they vote.
 
JomZ
#4
We have to remember that polls are only suggestive numbers and are meant to represent the general consensus of the population. 2,000 people does not properly represent 32,000,000+ people.

"Polls are for Dogs" as Diefenbaker once said refering to their accuracy. The only thing they do is make jobs for people to try and guess the outcome of the election on the 23rd.

I recently participated in a phone survey for Adobe (Dunno who they were doing this for) a few weeks ago about this. The questions were so worded that I sometimes picked Harper, sometimes Martin, sometimes Layton, and ever a few Green answers popped up.

Here is my bet for this election
- 25% of those who vote will not have made their choice
until the day of.
- We will have the lowest voter turnout in history (Mid
50's)

So dont go getting your hopes up.
 
paulmartin
#5
I Hope that the turnout is good since it would mean more people had their say. Second to the Internet, it's our best place to vent. lol
 
the caracal kid
#6
i agree with you JomZ,

people are tired of the status quo and realize that parties represent a large portion of that. We would see a much higher turnout if we had an official way to rescind our vote (i.e. vote "none of the above").
 
Canucklehead
#7
You are correct JomZ but 2000 is the minimum, as per Allan Gregg at the Strategic Council, to give the poll any statistical relevance. Anything less is rubbish for a population the size of Canada.

Polls as far as I am concerned should not be published during the campaign at all. I honestly believe the poll numbers themselves do nothing but give people a sense of sport in politics and everyone loves a close game, don;t they? Let people vote their conscience without outside influence and we'll see what type of country we really live in.
 
the caracal kid
#8
one thing that would do, canucklehead, is end real strategic voting.

Something that those who think one should vote for something rather than against something would favour.
 
Canucklehead
#9
This is all academic for me having already voted. I don't need to see the party sideshows telling me what I want to hear to know who stands for what. Then again, I keep an eye on the newspapers between elections as well.

Strategic voting will never end, people like to feel they have control and strategic voting help people feel important (if only to themselves) and scratches the control itch.
 
the caracal kid
#10
thats why i said "real" strategic voting. there will of course always be reactionaries, but those that are aiming for a specific outcome rely on polls to determine how to vote.

if only more people paid attention between elections, and more importantly, remembered what happens between elections.
 
I think not
#11
It's not over till it's over.
 

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