How I believe Brexit might proceed.


Machjo
#1
1. Cameron,knowing full well that leaving the EU will hurt the UK and so not having the heart to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, will ask the Queen to dissolve Parliament and call an election.

2. No one in a constituency tje majority of the voters of which voted leave would have the heart to campaign to remain. Since most constituencies voted leave, most constituencies will field only leave candidates from all parties.

The election campaign will probably be more like two parallel campaigns, one in the majority leave constituencies and one in the majority remain ones.

3. Since all parties will probably field leave candidates in the 'leave' constituencies, the new Parliament will probably be majority leave, triggering Article 50, giving it two years to negotiate a Brexit to then present the agreement, if any, to a new referendum.

How people vote then will depend on the state of affairs and any proposed agreement between the UK and the EU at that time. Beyond that, I find it hard to predict how the people would vote in that referendum. While this was the leave the EU referendum, the next will be a remain in the EU or accept the new UK-EU agreement-if-there-is-one referendum.

Where I could see a major storm brewing would be the following.

The EU decides to play hardball, won't budge on migration policy to have access to the European market, and so the UK government, also not willing to budge on migration policy, calls a referendum to stay in the EU or accept a CETA-style agreement (meaning a comparatively closed border but with the UK controlling migration).

The voters, knowing that a CETA-style agreement would hurt their economy but feeling blackmailed by the EU, vote to accept the CETA-style agreement as their way to show the EU the proverbial finger.

This hurts the EU and especially the UK economies as the UK closes the border to migration and both sides limit trade.

The UK is thrown in deep recession, the EU in minor recession, each side feels bitter towards the other, and we begin to see a further rise of nationalism in Europe anew.

That's a scary scenario, though I hope a brighter scenario emerges instead.
 
B00Mer
Republican
+1
#2
Another Brexit thread
 
DaSleeper
+1
#3
Almost as many as Trump threads.....
 
B00Mer
Republican
+1
#4
Quote: Originally Posted by DaSleeper View Post

Almost as many as Trump threads.....

...and yes they were merged. Time for a Mergxit.
 
DaSleeper
#5
Quote: Originally Posted by B00Mer View Post

...and yes they were merged. Time for a Mergxit.

They were???
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taxslave
Free Thinker
+1
#6
Even 38 is more than the subject warrants.
 
DaSleeper
+2
#7  Top Rated Post
Quote: Originally Posted by taxslave View Post

Even 38 is more than the subject warrants.

I absolutely agree....but I was just showing a quite appropriate rebuttal to the gentleman's objection

But the absolute champion offender in all this Is Mentalfluff and his global warming threads
 
Mowich
Conservative
#8
Quote: Originally Posted by Machjo View Post

1. Cameron,knowing full well that leaving the EU will hurt the UK and so not having the heart to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, will ask the Queen to dissolve Parliament and call an election.

2. No one in a constituency tje majority of the voters of which voted leave would have the heart to campaign to remain. Since most constituencies voted leave, most constituencies will field only leave candidates from all parties.

The election campaign will probably be more like two parallel campaigns, one in the majority leave constituencies and one in the majority remain ones.

3. Since all parties will probably field leave candidates in the 'leave' constituencies, the new Parliament will probably be majority leave, triggering Article 50, giving it two years to negotiate a Brexit to then present the agreement, if any, to a new referendum.

How people vote then will depend on the state of affairs and any proposed agreement between the UK and the EU at that time. Beyond that, I find it hard to predict how the people would vote in that referendum. While this was the leave the EU referendum, the next will be a remain in the EU or accept the new UK-EU agreement-if-there-is-one referendum.

Where I could see a major storm brewing would be the following.

The EU decides to play hardball, won't budge on migration policy to have access to the European market, and so the UK government, also not willing to budge on migration policy, calls a referendum to stay in the EU or accept a CETA-style agreement (meaning a comparatively closed border but with the UK controlling migration).

The voters, knowing that a CETA-style agreement would hurt their economy but feeling blackmailed by the EU, vote to accept the CETA-style agreement as their way to show the EU the proverbial finger.

This hurts the EU and especially the UK economies as the UK closes the border to migration and both sides limit trade.

The UK is thrown in deep recession, the EU in minor recession, each side feels bitter towards the other, and we begin to see a further rise of nationalism in Europe anew.

That's a scary scenario, though I hope a brighter scenario emerges instead.

Then there's the best scenario of all - the EU is besieged by other countries wanting to opt out and the whole organization is relegated to the dust bin of history.
 
Danbones
Free Thinker
#9
“You should know that those who observe us from afar, are worried. I have seen and heard and listened to several leaders of other planets. They are very worried because they’re wondering which way the European Union is going. So we have to reassure both the Europeans and those who observe us from further away.”- Jean-Claude Juncker’s recent statement to the EU Parliament concerning his discussions with alien leaders
https://off-guardian.org/2016/07/04/...eu-commission/

Its possible Britain did the right thing
 
Blackleaf
#10
Quote: Originally Posted by Machjo View Post

1. Cameron,knowing full well that leaving the EU will hurt the UK and so not having the heart to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, will ask the Queen to dissolve Parliament and call an election.

2. No one in a constituency tje majority of the voters of which voted leave would have the heart to campaign to remain. Since most constituencies voted leave, most constituencies will field only leave candidates from all parties.

The election campaign will probably be more like two parallel campaigns, one in the majority leave constituencies and one in the majority remain ones.

3. Since all parties will probably field leave candidates in the 'leave' constituencies, the new Parliament will probably be majority leave, triggering Article 50, giving it two years to negotiate a Brexit to then present the agreement, if any, to a new referendum.

How people vote then will depend on the state of affairs and any proposed agreement between the UK and the EU at that time. Beyond that, I find it hard to predict how the people would vote in that referendum. While this was the leave the EU referendum, the next will be a remain in the EU or accept the new UK-EU agreement-if-there-is-one referendum.

Where I could see a major storm brewing would be the following.

The EU decides to play hardball, won't budge on migration policy to have access to the European market, and so the UK government, also not willing to budge on migration policy, calls a referendum to stay in the EU or accept a CETA-style agreement (meaning a comparatively closed border but with the UK controlling migration).

The voters, knowing that a CETA-style agreement would hurt their economy but feeling blackmailed by the EU, vote to accept the CETA-style agreement as their way to show the EU the proverbial finger.

This hurts the EU and especially the UK economies as the UK closes the border to migration and both sides limit trade.

The UK is thrown in deep recession, the EU in minor recession, each side feels bitter towards the other, and we begin to see a further rise of nationalism in Europe anew.

That's a scary scenario, though I hope a brighter scenario emerges instead.

Cameron is not going to call an early election. Not only is he now a dead duck after losing the referendum but a leadership contest is underway right now in the Tory Party and Ukip and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has most of his MPs trying to kick him out of his job.

I think Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom, the two favourites to be the new Tory leader and Prime Minister, have also ruled out holding an early election if they get the job. The biggest thing for the government to crack on with as soon as the new PM is elected by the Tory Party is to undertake Brexit negotiations and get Britain out of the EU with a great deal and as soon as possible.
 

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