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Due to immigration and a high birth rate - currently at its highest since 1981 - Britain's population could swell to 81 million by 2074, leaving it with possibly the biggest population in Western Europe...

Immigration set to increase Britain's population by a third

By JAMES SLACK
22nd October 2007
Daily Mail


Forecast: Prof Robert Rowthorn predicts a 21million increase in the population by 2074



The UK population will increase by a third, to 81million, in the lifetime of children born today, experts predict.

They say the rise, fuelled by immigration and higher birth rates, will put enormous strain on schools, hospitals and other public services.

The forecast of a 21million increase by 2074 comes from economics professor Robert Rowthorn of Cambridge University.

In evidence to Parliament, he said: "Large-scale immigration will lead to a rapid and sustained growth in population, with negative economic and environmental consequences in the form of overcrowding, congestion, pressure on housing and public services and loss of environmental amenities.

"It also undermines the labour market position of the most vulnerable and least skilled sections of the local workforce, including many in the ethnic minority population, who must compete against the immigrants."

The professor also said there was no evidence to back the Government's ecomomic case for allowing large numbers of people to move here.

Professor Rowthorn says immigration is currently adding 205,000 to the population every year.

Migrants are mostly young and many start families here.

These two factors alone, he said, would take the population to 77million by 2074.

But even this could be an under-estimate, he believes, as fertility rates in the UK are increasing - itself partly the result of migrants having more children.

Once this is factored in, the population projection reaches 81million by 2074.

Population: Britain's population could rise by a THIRD to 81 million



The findings are similar to those produced by Oxford University professor David Coleman last week.
He said the number of people living in the UK is likely to exceed 75million by 2051.

Professor Rowthorn said that if Britain allowed no more immigration. the population would fall seven million by 2074.

The Cambridge expert is a consultant to the International Monetary Fund, the UN Commission on Trade and Development and the International Labour organisation.

He has advised British government departments, and is a regular in the Chancellor's seminar group on large-scale economic issues.

He told a House of Lords committee: "Large-scale immigration is of minor economic benefit to the existing population of the UK as a whole, although it is certainly of benefit to the immigrants, their families and sometimes their countries of origin."

The findings of the two academics will put further pressure on the Government to reduce net migration - the numbers arriving compared to those leaving.

Last Wednesday, Ministers admitted for the first time that the large scale of immigration over the past decade was placing a huge strain on public services.

Immigration: 95 East European plumbers working in West London assembled by the Daily Mail



A Home Office survey of public sector workers found that some low-level crime is increasing, schools are struggling to cope with Eastern Europeans who speak little or no English and community tensions are rising in some areas.

It added that GPs and A&E departments are coming under pressure from migrants with illnesses such as TB, or those who turn up at a hospital instead of a surgery.

Housebuyers are also being priced out of the market by both migrants looking to settle here and landlords buying properties to let.

Immigration Minister Liam Byrne said it was clear communities were "unsettled" and a new balance should be struck between the needs of the economy and society in general.

But in a separate Home Office report, officials said immigrants often work harder and are filling gaps in the jobs market. Treasury officials have predicted that a million more will arrive by 2012.

Another group of academics claimed yesterday that Britons will increasingly welcome migrant workers as they realise they could hold the key to their retirement hopes.

Professor Sharun Mukand, of Tufts University in Massachusetts, told a conference in Nottingham that many countries would soon face a migration dilemma. Ageing populations and rising social security payments were likely to demand the importation of a younger workforce.



Shadow Home Secretary David Davis said Gordon Brown's open-door immigration policy has "papered over the cracks in the economy" but completely ignored the effect on housing and public services.

He added: "While we've had record levels of immigration, a million under-25s have been dumped on the scrapheap, not in work or training."

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