A hypothetical look at Election '07


snowles
#1
I've gotten to thinking lately about how the next election is going to shape up, and I would like to throw a question out there and see what those in the know think.

In the last election, the breakdown of the popular vote was as follows: Conservatives 36.2%, Liberals 30.2%, Bloc 10.5%, NDP 17.5%, Green 4.5%. The resulting seat breakdown was as follows: Conservatives 124, Liberals 103, Bloc 51, NDP 29, and 1 Ind.

In the past few days, I have heard a lot of Conservative supporters talk about how Stephen Harper will win a majority in the next election. What I am curious to know is, for those who believe it to be the case, is it even really possible?

I mean, look at the numbers, province by province: they certainly won't win the three seats in the Northwest Territories, Nunavut or the Yukon, where they have always been a third-place party. It won't happen on the east coast, where more than enough people are fed up with the Conservatives to the point where their seat total will likely go down (even though they trailed in the vote breakdown during the last election anyways).

I would be stunned if they picked up any more seats in Quebec. I would be less than surprised if they lost most of them (about 8 of the 10), almost all but a couple to the Bloc, since they gained most of them in Quebec City, where the most anger over Harper's actions has resonated. This province is where Gomery was the most heated, and its results likely cost the Liberals the election; the issue here has since passed and with a Quebec leader, I don't see how it will be repeated.

It won't happen in Northern Ontario, as it will never be anything other than Liberal, despite the idiots that have served in many of our communities over the years (and the Conservatives have been relegated to a very distant third party). Eastern Ontario was already, and will likely forever be Conservative held anyways, while Central Ontario was split, and every seat the Conservatives picked up was really tight. I don't forsee Toronto going right-wing anytime soon. This is another place that I would be surprised if the Conservatives didn't lose a lot of seats.

The Liberals and the NDP only won 8 seats to the 20 Conservative seats in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, so there's not a lot of wiggle room for growth in these two provinces. There's even less in Alberta, where Conservatives won all 28 seats. In BC as it stands now I would expect little to change, but with environmental issues a large deal in BC voters minds, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Liberals picked up a lot of votes from the NDP next time around; on top of that the Conservatives actually lost seats here last time, and David Emerson defected afterwards. There is no way Emerson will keep his seat.

So I'm interested people, where are the extra seats will come from to ensure a majority for the Conservatives. Right now the Conservatives have 124; a majority is 155. The difference then is 31 seats gained, assuming that people like David Emerson don't lose their seats, and Garth Turner's riding revotes Conservative, neither which is very likely to happen. Even with everything against them; Gomery, income trusts, the ridiculous '5-point plan', the Liberals still captured more than 30% of the popular vote.

The results had a 6.5% change in votes for each party result in a 23% change in seats, a number which seems way out of whack when looking at it from a statistical point and the large sample size. It would have to happen again, but without losing a single vote, and with the odd propotions intact, almost 1.5 times greater in magnitude than before for the Conservatives to win a majority. Every way I break down the numbers, I don't see a Conservative majority happening - not now, not ever.

Information from Wikipedia.
 
#juan
No Party Affiliation
#2
I think it depends on two things. Who calls the election and when. If the Bloc or some combination of the Bloc and the Liberals force an election, the liberals might pay through the nose. If the Conservatives call an election, it could go bad for them. It could even mean a Liberal win with a minority or maybe even a small majority.
 
Colpy
Conservative
#3
Much as I would love it, I can't see a Harper majority.

Let's hope I am so very WRONG!
 
#juan
No Party Affiliation
#4
Colpy

Harper has a nasty long row to hoe. For the moment. I'm quite happy with a conservative minority. I don't yet trust Harper with a majority. If he gets a majority, I'll have to live with it, but I think his agenda would be quite different with a majority. I have a feeling that I'm like the most people in Canada. People also have to get comfortable with Dion. When they do, it will be goodbye Harper. I think Harper had a shot when the Liberals were leaderless....I wonder why he didn't call an election then..
 
RedGreen
#5
I don't think the conservatives can win majority either.

They won last time because so many Liberal voters had had enough of the corruption of the Chrétien/ Martin reign. The right leaning Liberals voted conservative. The left leaning Liberals voted NDP and some cast their ballots to support an issue that is important to them and voted Green.

The Liberals who voted conservative are likely mad that the "conservatives" they thought they voted for were actually the stampede going "reformers" in disguise.

The ones who voted NDP probably feel a little silly that they voted for a party with bad policy, little understanding of the Canadian economy and really no chance of ever coming to power.

The folks who voted Green are happy that their votes caused the "Big 3 (four including BQ)" to recognize that the environment is the number one issue to many Candaians.

Most Liberal voters will go back and the Liberals will be back in power. Do the math like snowles did and you'll see that they don't need much of a shift in votes in order to win.


Just an idea... There should be an area on the ballot where voters can make their 'second choice' if desired. This would not translate into seats or anything. It would just be interresting to see what secondary parties would get support and conversly, what party secondary party voters would choose. Many voters want to vote for other parties, but feel that it is a waste, so they vote strategically (i.e. vote Liberal to keep the conservatives out or vice-versa).
 

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