Prediction Time

Reverend Blair
#1
After the last election, the seats in the House of Commons were divided like this:

Liberal Party 135, Conservative Party 99, Bloc Quebecois 54, New Democratic Party 19, independent 1

Carolyn Parrish is an independent now, and the speaker is another seat, so the Liberals have 133 votes while the other parties remain the same. Of the the (now) two independents, Chuck Strahl generally votes with the Conservatives and Carolyn Parrish generally votes with the Liberals.

My predictions if an election was held tomorrow?

Liberals 120, Conservatives 102, NDP 26, BQ 60.

Since the NDP and BQ are both left-leaning parties, they would wield far more power than their slight increases would indicate. The Conservative gains would not have such an effect on their power. In fact their power would diminish with the NDP and BQ gains and the Liberals would be more likely to seek their support in proposed legislation than the support of the Conservatives.

Both Harper and Martin would be facing a very uncomfortable reality...neither would be leaders of their parties for long.
 
crit13
#2
Conservatives 125
Liberals 105
BQ 60
NDP 18
 
Vanni Fucci
Free Thinker
#3
Keep dreaming redneck... :P
 
no1important
#4
Don't you mean Chuck Cadman Rev?
146- liberal
85-Conservative
55-Block
21-NDP
1 -Independant (Cadman)
 
crit13
#5
Quote:

Keep dreaming redneck...

Yet another personal attack with no moderator around.
 
Gonzo
#6
On certain issues like gay marriage, abortion, missile defence, kyoto, the list goes on, the conservative are on the wrong side. So I think Canadians care more about that then the sponsorship scandle. The Liberals will have a minority government again. Maybe the NDP will pick up more seats.
 
Vanni Fucci
Free Thinker
#7
Quote: Originally Posted by crit13

Quote:

Keep dreaming redneck...

Yet another personal attack with no moderator around.

That wasn't a personal attack, that was about as much of a generalization as you're likely to get from me...
 
Gonzo
#8
I would hate to see Steven Harper in power. My God, him and Bush! Canada would be sold! I hope Canadians remember how corrupt Mulroney was, because he endorses Harper.
 
mrmom2
#9
Hahahahahahahahah :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P To funny!
 
crit13
#10
What's really funny is that you think the Conservatives are some how less Canadian than the Liberals.

Every Conservative I know is extremely proud to be a Canadian whereas many (not all) Liberal supporters I know bitch and complain about this country all the time.

They complain about health care, scandals over taxation etc.

Einstein said that the definition of insanity is to do the same thing over and over again and expect a different result.

Keep voting Liberal, you're already insane.
 
Vanni Fucci
Free Thinker
#11
Quote: Originally Posted by crit13

Keep voting Liberal, you're already insane.

Well, I'm still waiting for the results to be in on whether or not I'm insane, but I think you should know that I've never voted Liberal in my life...

...and I still think you're a redneck...
 
mrmom2
#12
We'll have our troops in Iraq in a heartbeat if Harper gets in .Can you say Pan American Union too!I'm not saying they are not proud to be Canadians but they will sell Canada!
 
Gonzo
#13
Actually, I vote NDP. Where did I say that conservatives dont love there country? I just dont trust Harper. I'm not alone in that feeling. Where he stands on many issues I dont agree with. There realy aren't any "good" leaders right now. Martin dithers, Harpers a red neck. You basically vote for the lesser of the evils.
 
Vanni Fucci
Free Thinker
#14
Quote: Originally Posted by Gonzo

I just dont trust Harper. I'm not alone in that feeling.

No Gonzo, you are not alone by a long shot...
 
no1important
#15
Martin is the lesser of two evils by far.
 
Vanni Fucci
Free Thinker
#16
Quote: Originally Posted by no1important

Martin is the lesser of two evils by far.

Maybe so...but I'll vote for the lesser of three...
 
Gonzo
#17
Me too. The NDP will get my vote.
 
dukee
#18
My prediction:

Conservatives 143 Liberals 75 Bloc 55 NDP 35


The Liberals are going to take a beating, paving the way for significant breakthroughs for the Conservatives and the NDP.

With Martin's political future relegated to the scrapheap, I would expect Liberal Party divisions to finally erupt.
 
crit13
#19
Once the truth comes out the Liberals will destroy their own party. There will be a feeding frenzy of finger pointing.

I hope some of them get jail time. They will become the poster boys of the next election.
 
peapod
#20
Wow! I never thought I would ever hear critc say that!
 
no1important
#21
I did vote NDP last time federally, only because no Marijuana Party candidate running. I will do the same next time. It was a tight 3 way race here and Gurmant Grewal squeaked in. ):
 
Reverend Blair
#22
Are you seriously predicting that the BQ will lose seats, Dukee?

The Conservatives put far too much emphasis on scandal, something they are also known for, and too little on policy. The impication is that they think Canadians are stupid.

Canadians aren't stupid though. The next election will be fought on the environment. The Liberals will push their "green" budget, the NDP and BQ will push Kyoto...the NDP because they have a plan, the BQ because of Quebec's hydro power...and the Conservatives will paint themselves as backwoods luddites who prefer corporate profits to breathing and think the election issue is a scandal that people in most of Canada are tired of hearing about.

The main sub-issues will be health care, BMD and same-sex marriage, none of which are strong points for the Conservatives. If (more like when) a Conservative backbencher from Saskatchewan or Alberta decides to make abortion an issue in spite of the official party stance, Stephen Harper will be afraid to deal with it forthrightly.
 
mrmom2
#23
Harpers to close to W Canadians will never go for him.The last thing we want to see is our troops in Iraq.Not to mention he'sa Bildaberger
 
missile
Conservative
#24
It all depends on the local candidates for me-
I will vote for whoever the best person is,
the party be damned.
 
tibear
#25
RB,

You truly believe the next election will be about the environment, give your head a shake.

Just because the NDP want to take about the environment doesn't mean that the MAJOR parties want to deal with it.

Without question, integrity and honesty will be the issues if we have a spring election. You won't hear anything about SSM(except from the NDP because they'll be screaming that the Liberals are calling an elections simply to postpone the SSM debate yet again).

The BQ and Conservatives have both indicated that integrity is something they are going to go after.

Just to let you know, I don't think the Liberals are any different than any other government in power. They have corrupt members just as any other party does. I would like to think that the election will be about issues, which the Liberals will try to do, but the public doesn't like liars who are stealing money and I don't think the Liberals will be able to overcome the Gomery inquiry testimony.

A quick question, what would your reaction be if it was a conservative government who had a publication ban on the information that the inquiry was generating??? Would you be as easygoing??
 
Reverend Blair
#26
Quote:

You truly believe the next election will be about the environment, give your head a shake.

Three out of four parties see it as one of their strengths. It is in the international and national news almost daily. It shows up as a major concern in polls every time.

Quote:

Without question, integrity and honesty will be the issues if we have a spring election.

Not if the Liberals have any say in it. It is unlikely that the government will fall because of a bill on the scandal. It is likely that it will fall on the environment-related budget bill.

Quote:

You won't hear anything about SSM(except from the NDP because they'll be screaming that the Liberals are calling an elections simply to postpone the SSM debate yet again).

The Liberals, NDP and BQ will be using it to present Harper and the Conservatives as the party that would use Notwithstanding to take away rights.



Quote:

The BQ and Conservatives have both indicated that integrity is something they are going to go after.

They tried that last time. As the election went on, the issues came out. The Conservatives also have to be very careful about this because they are not exactly scandal free...they still have that legacy to deal with.

Quote:

A quick question, what would your reaction be if it was a conservative government who had a publication ban on the information that the inquiry was generating??? Would you be as easygoing??

You pretty much accused me of being a paranoid hardass in the other thread, now I'm easygoing?

The answer is yes, I would take the same stance. Elections should be about issues, not scandal. I'm not a fan of the Liberals and I see very little difference between Martin's most harmful policies and Harper's policies, so it really isn't partisan decision in this case.

Like I said before,
Quote:

Instead of discussing policy and its ramifications we are reduced to the level of scandal-mongering tabloids waiting for a starlet's nipple to pop out her dress. That's not politics or governance. It's bullshit, and it's harmful as hell to the country. It needs to stop.

 
Jo Canadian
#27
If there was a snap election soon I wish I could vote for: Sheila Fraser, Auditor General. She comes down hard on any shit that' s been pulled, no matter who it is, libs/cons/misc...and gets people to do something about it.

Quote:

and gets people to do something about it.

That's a quote not many politicians are associated with I'd say.
 
Reverend Blair
#28
She was in Winnipeg a while ago and said that things had gone too far...that people within government, career federal employees not politicians, were so afraid of being crucified that things weren't getting done.

Funny how the national press never picked up on that.
 
no1important
#29
The NDP always has good principles and I do not know why more people do not vote for them. Are they scared if they vote NDP instead of Liberal, Harper will sneak in? Do they dislike how close the NDP is to organized labour?

I know they ****ed up really big here, and a lot of the old guard is coming out of the shrubs to run in next Provincial election, and the current leader is viewed as a fill in until 2009 election.

I think that could be the problem, They need a leader Provincially and Federally to be more "broader"? I dunno, but until they get a more "in touch" leader and not a "Bay Street" shyster type like Jack Layton is. There going to have problems. I hate to say it but Ed Brodbent was the best leader the NDP has had in recent years.

I do vote NDP myself if there is no Marijuana Party candidate, which is about 70% of the time.
 
mrmom2
#30
Wll maybe they should be afraid Rev!They need to know that their jobs are not secure just like the rest of us maybe they would get some work done and treat us public with some more respect.
 

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