Peak Oil update

dumpthemonarchy
Free Thinker
#1
There was a conference in Houston with energy experts discussing Peak Oil. More geology, production and business here than politics. An expert from the Cdn gov't was there.

I think we will need more farmers in the future and less agrobusiness consortiums.

http://www.voanews.com/english/2007-10-31-voa81.cfm

As oil prices reach record levels, industry observers ponder a future of increased demand and a possible peak in production. A European group announced last week that world production peaked last year and will decrease steadily in the years ahead, even as demand continues to grow. VOA's Greg Flakus went to a peak oil conference in Houston recently and filed this report.

On hand for the Association of Peak Oil Studies conference were industry representatives, engineers, analysts and investors all expressing concern about what the world will do when production reaches its peak.
Among the better known speakers was legendary oil developer and billionaire T. Boone Pickens, who expressed his belief that world oil production is unlikely to keep up with rising demand, meaning much higher prices could be ahead.
"The $90 a barrel does not surprise me. It would not surprise me if it went to $100 a barrel. I am not predicting that, but I do think it will go to 100 before it goes back down to 80," he said.
Pickens blamed some of the problem on inefficient production from state-owned oil companies that have not allowed more technically advanced private companies, like Dallas-based Exxon Mobil, to take a more active role in their fields.

"Could you get more than 85 million barrels a day out of the world? You could if they all turned it over to Exxon, but they are not going to do that, we know. But 75 percent of all the oil in the world is controlled by state-owned oil companies," he said.
Many industry analysts and oil experts dispute the peak-oil theory, noting that new technology, bolstered by the increased price of oil, has made it possible to extract oil from areas that were once overlooked. Many also dispute the idea suggested by some peak oil theorists that production will go into a steep decline after reaching the peak.
Many energy analysts also blame the recent run up in oil prices on speculation and fear of delivery disruptions in the Middle East, rather than a peak in production.
But the people concerned about peak oil are not alarmists, says the director of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil in the United States, Jim Baldauf. "We do not claim that we are running out of oil. We claim that we are running out of cheap oil, and I think if you just look in the financial pages today you will see that this is not some projection," he said.
Baldauf is executive vice president of Austin, Texas-based APEX Resources, a company that has exploited wells that were once considered depleted. He says exploiting them is is difficult. "All I know is that we have to drill deeper and smarter and at twice the cost to get about a third of the production that we used to get," he said.
He says many people in the energy industry see a peak in worldwide production coming soon and support various efforts to find a solution. "There is no silver bullet, single techno fix to solve this problem. More likely it is going to be an integrated mosaic of pieces that make up a jig-saw puzzle of solutions," he said.
One solution might be the use of hybrid-electric vehicles like one put on display at the conference by Jamie Mitchell of the Austin Energy utility company. "We need to find solutions to the problem and how cities like Austin and Houston will continue to thrive when we do not have cheap, abundant oil resources," Mitchell said.
Most conference participants expressed support for immediate conservation programs as well as development of alternative fuels, from liquefied natural gas to biofuels such as ethanol, as well as such ideas as solar and wind energy to charge electric car batteries.
Many at the conference also supported development of new, safer nuclear plants. They do not produce greenhouse gases and could provide support for an electric-vehicle system. But they recognize that will be an uphill battle, given the public's safety concerns.
Veteran oil and gas industry analyst Charles Maxwell favors full-scale development of all alternative energy as well as decisive conservation steps . He warns that it would be better to take strong action now than wait for an energy-shortage crisis. "The more we can do before that trigger is pulled, before some event sets this stuff off, the better off we are going to be," he said.
He says such an event, whether it be a natural disaster or political upheaval could happen at any time, with dire consequences for the entire world.


---end-------












Then an article about how
 
karrie
No Party Affiliation
#2
"We do not claim that we are running out of oil. We claim that we are running out of cheap oil, and I think if you just look in the financial pages today you will see that this is not some projection,"

I find it interesting that in stating this, the oil companies can drive up the price of oil, thus drive up the cost for exploration, thus, yes, drive up the price for oil. The whole thing is like a snake eating its tail.
 
Karlin
#3
I agree karrie, the supply side of the supply-demand situation is driving up the prices, and thats just what the big players want. It is a pretty common tactic for every kinds of goods. Market forces don't have much to do with it, it is more about interferance and manipulations. Otherwise, alternative energy would have started to take over when oil was around $50 a bbl.

As for peak oil, it may be that there will never be more than 85 million bbls/day produced, but as for the long term supplies, they are likely nowhere near the end - we will not be running out anytime soon. The Canadian off-shore east coast is just starting to get going, and they are not giving the true estimates of the totals there.... the west coast has not even begun [I hope it never does] , and there is the arctic regions not yet fully explored. Around the world, probably much more oil.

So, we won't run out of oil - not before we totally befoul the atmosphere with the emissions from burning those fossil fuels!! I truly hope this IS the peak of production [at 85M bbls/day]. It is the peak carrying capacity of the atmosphere
 
Unforgiven
#4
It's when China and India get to the point where everyone wants to drive an SUV that there will be shortages. The argument being that since we've had it all those developing years that they have a right to it regardless of what it does to the environment. Price will be what it's set at by the government I suppose. I wonder why we don't hear of oil deposits in either of those countries. Doesn't make a lot of sense that there wouldn't be any.
 
lone wolf
Free Thinker
#5
Mongolia?
http://www.rfa.org/english/news/busi.../02/02/127166/
 
karrie
No Party Affiliation
#6
Quote: Originally Posted by Unforgiven View Post

It's when China and India get to the point where everyone wants to drive an SUV that there will be shortages. The argument being that since we've had it all those developing years that they have a right to it regardless of what it does to the environment. Price will be what it's set at by the government I suppose. I wonder why we don't hear of oil deposits in either of those countries. Doesn't make a lot of sense that there wouldn't be any.

My husband's company has offices in India and China, so there's petroleum. How much I couldn't tell you, but it must be there.
 
Niflmir
Free Thinker
#7
I had been wondering about just this point recently. I looked it up and as far as I could tell the production was no where near peaking yet. Possibly the production levels reached an inversion point meaning that the point of diminishing returns has been reached, but I didn't bother to more than glance at it.

It always annoys me slightly when they assume that state owned companies are more inefficient than private companies.
Quote:

Pickens blamed some of the problem on inefficient production from state-owned oil companies that have not allowed more technically advanced private companies, like Dallas-based Exxon Mobil, to take a more active role in their fields.

"Could you get more than 85 million barrels a day out of the world? You could if they all turned it over to Exxon, but they are not going to do that, we know. But 75 percent of all the oil in the world is controlled by state-owned oil companies," he said.

Is barrels per day really what one thinks of as efficiency? From a those state's perspective, efficiency probably means getting the best return on their resources over the long run, not selling off their nation's legacy as quickly as possible.
 
Tonington
#8
The oil prices are rising out of speculation and demand, not supply. How the markets perceive the threat of political instability on supply has caused the price to rise, while production has remained un-phased by political instability.

The peak oil theory has been around for 50 years, and did not originally include the reserves that made no economic sense. Tar sands and shale now do make economic sense, with prices rising so high.

Interestingly enough, I believe OPEC has come out recently giving support to the peak oil theory. That in my view is likely because their reserves are in conventional oil, which is becoming more expensive to find, and any speculation will drive the prices higher and increase the margins.

Last year, oil companies spent $150 Billion on new ventures and equipment, this year it is on pace to be over $300 Billion, with growth still next year.
 
mrmom2
#9
[quote=Tonington;898694]The oil prices are rising out of speculation and demand, not supply. How the markets perceive the threat of political instability on supply has caused the price to rise, while production has remained un-phased by political instability

Of course the US attacking Iraq has nothing to do with that precieved instabilityOil companys are just loving it
 
MikeyDB
#10
Mrmom2

Invading Iraq was the Bush effort at the behest of multi-billionaires to provide substantiation for a condition that was and is inevitable in a petroleum based economy. The equation goes like this....

Numbers of automobiles built and supplied to a consuming juggernaut=demand for fossil fuels.

The term "collateral damage" although frequently used in reference to innocent people slaughtered at the will of the American consumer is actually the effect petroleum prices will have on every other facet of human existence. I already supplied the metaphor in a different thread...but...

Look at Israel vs. Palestine.....now replace "Israel" with "wealthy" and Palestinians with "poor" and the picture might come a little more into focus...
 
Niflmir
Free Thinker
#11
Quote: Originally Posted by MikeyDB View Post

The term "collateral damage" although frequently used in reference to innocent people slaughtered at the will of the American consumer is actually the effect petroleum prices will have on every other facet of human existence. I already supplied the metaphor in a different thread...but...

Its grand how the term collateral damage assumes that, had the missiles or bullets hit the correct target, those people wouldn't have been innocent to begin with.
 
Toro
#12
Quote: Originally Posted by karrie View Post

"We do not claim that we are running out of oil. We claim that we are running out of cheap oil, and I think if you just look in the financial pages today you will see that this is not some projection,"

I find it interesting that in stating this, the oil companies can drive up the price of oil, thus drive up the cost for exploration, thus, yes, drive up the price for oil. The whole thing is like a snake eating its tail.

That's not what they meant.

What they meant was that most of the easy fields of have been tapped. Newer source, ie. the Oil Sands, are much more expensive.
 
YoungJoonKim
#13
I love this topic..
Err uummm..I have a question.
I am writing about peak oil or oil and sort..
Anybody know how I can focus my topic into 2500 words essay?
 
s243a
#14
As a side note, why does everyone blame “big oil” for regulating the price of oil when it is the cartel “Opec” which sets the prices?
 
Toro
#15
Quote: Originally Posted by s243a View Post

As a side note, why does everyone blame “big oil” for regulating the price of oil when it is the cartel “Opec” which sets the prices?

Big Oil doesn't regulate oil prices. And these days, OPEC is a bit player. The world is running flat out, which is one reason why oil hit $95 today.
 
dumpthemonarchy
Free Thinker
#16
Peak Oil is a great subject, I'm a bit of a secular armaggedonist. The state legislature of Connecticut is setting up a committee to look at the problem. Why so many deniers? Business hates the idea nations control so much of the world's oil, they say, "If only those political fools did not control such a valuable resource, then things would be fine." Talk about denying reality.

Oil is a national resource, we live on an ocean of oil. Plus I read the oil sands in Alberta may have used its best part by 2015, as the sand in the centre of the pits are about 12-15% oil and less farther out. Already it's an already mess.

The media never really forecast the sudden rise of China, nor India. Things in the world can change very fast. And hey, if we really have a shortage of oil soon, it's not Peak Oil, it's something else, there are always many factors at work these days-the key is getting and keeping a cushy job. The media is not responsible for change these days, they are only supposed to reflect what the public is thinking, in all its grand wisdom and cruel ignorance.
 
Walter
#17
At $95 we'll never run out.

Deep Oil Drilling


Peak Oil is the theory, on the verge of becoming conventional wisdom, that the world’s petroleum supply is topping out and will not be able to meet global demand soaring along with the economies of China and India. But a successful test in a mammoth field deep beneath the Gulf of Mexico, announced on Sept. 5 by Chevron (CVX), Devon Energy (DVN), and Norway’s Statoil (STO), should help put that scary scenario on hold for decades.
One huge oil reserve, even if it could rival the 1968 discovery of Prudhoe Bay and increase U.S. reserves by up to 50%, will not turn around the world’s tight energy markets, of course. It won’t even bring the U.S. close to energy independence when oil and gas get into full-fledged production four or five years from now.
» Source: BusinessWeek
But the capability to find and recover petroleum at extreme depths, temperatures, and pressures, as demonstrated by the Chevron team, may indeed tip the balance of supply and demand in the long term. There will be a new frenzy of drilling at these depths in the Gulf of Mexico, where about a dozen promising exploration wells have already been drilled.
Worldwide Deposits. Other parts of the world that once appeared beyond the pale may also come into play. Areas believed to have oil deposits extremely deep beneath the ocean floor, which could now become commercially recoverable, include the North Sea off the coast of Britain, the Nile River Delta off the coast of Egypt, and possibly coastal Brazil, says Andrew Latham, a vice-president at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie in Edinburgh, Scotland. Other analysts say West Africa could harbor lots of ultra-deep deposits. The areas have produced oil before but never from these depths.
The record-setting Chevron well, called Jack 2, which is 175 miles off the Louisiana coast, is more than five miles deep, including more than a mile of ocean depth. Modern 3-D seismic gear enabled the team to know where to drill to have a chance to make their $100 million-plus bet that oil would flow from such a deep formation. The drilling was the work of an advanced deep-sea rig—Transocean Inc.’s Cajun Express—one of 13 the company has launched since 1998 capable of drilling to depths of 35,000 feet, about double what the previous generation could do. Earlier drilling had established promising reserves in an area of the Gulf 300 miles long and 80 miles wide, but the Chevron project found a flow rate of more than 6,000 bbl. a day of light, sweet crude. The discovery confirmed the area’s commercial viability, strengthening hopes that as much as 15 billion barrels of oil could be recovered in the vicinity.
Pioneering isn’t cheap. Steel and skilled labor rates are going through the roof, as are rental rates for state-of-the-art offshore rigs. BP (BP), for example, will be paying $520,000 per day starting late next year for the same rig it is now getting for $190,000 per day. That’s because these fancy rigs, which house 200 people and rise 415 feet into the air, are in short supply with drilling picking up. Still, energy experts believe that producing oil from ultra-deep wells can be profitable as long as oil, selling for $67 per barrel today, stays at or above $40 to $45.
Some are skeptical. Matthew R. Simmons, chairman of an energy investment bank bearing his name and one of the leading proponents of Peak Oil, is sticking to his guns. “One well tells you almost nothing,” he says. Simmons says the deep wells are “unbelievably expensive” and often fall short of expectations. “The history of the industry is full of disappointment.”
But given the powerful combination of high oil prices and new technology, the industry is gaining confidence that supplies will grow. It’s pushing hard to produce oil and gas from difficult tar sand and shale fields as well as rejuvenating older fields with enhanced recovery methods. Cambridge Energy Research Associates predicts world oil and natural gas liquids capacity could increase as much as 25% by 2015. Says Robert W. Esser, a director of CERA: “Peak Oil theory is garbage as far as we’re concerned.”

This entry was posted on Thursday, September 7th, 2006 at 9:51 pm and is filed under Crisis , Industry , News , Solutions , Supplies , Technology . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response , or trackback from your own site.
 
YoungJoonKim
#18
So?
Same reason and same "bleh bleh bleh" attitude came up when Hubbert told the media that United State is at peak state which was 1970s...
+...
It says,
Quote:

selling for $67 per barrel today

Kinda old don't you think?

Just to remind everyone..
Peaking oil doesn't mean we are running out of oil, it just means we cannot produce as much as before. Also, meet the supply & demand.

One source suggested that OPEC cannot control the price any more..because the demand is so strong now days [COUGH SUV COUGH UNITED STATES]
 
Toro
#19
Quote: Originally Posted by YoungJoonKim View Post

So?
Same reason and same "bleh bleh bleh" attitude came up when Hubbert told the media that United State is at peak state which was 1970s...
+...
It says,
Kinda old don't you think?

Just to remind everyone..
Peaking oil doesn't mean we are running out of oil, it just means we cannot produce as much as before. Also, meet the supply & demand.

One source suggested that OPEC cannot control the price any more..because the demand is so strong now days [COUGH SUV COUGH UNITED STATES]

It has more to do with China these days.

BTW, Peak Oil is controversial. Cambridge Energy Research Associates estimates that at current prices there are 4.5 trillion barrels of oil remaining, which is far from Peak Oil.
 
dumpthemonarchy
Free Thinker
#20
If it's not peak oil, it's China, if it's not China it's India. Or it's all those gov'ts that are not properly investing like Iran, Russia, mexico et al so multinational oil companies can make billions of bucks. Gee, if only we could see the future and all those backward countries weren't.
 
darkbeaver
Republican
#21
I read somewhere about the two methods of oil exploration, apparently the method used by western oil diggers is called the biotic scheme and the method used by the former soviets is called the a-biotic scheme, somewhere said that the biotic plan has a success rate of 1 in ten holes and the a-biotic has a success rate of 8 in ten holes.
Oil has already been squeeozed out of rocks under very high pressure/temperature in ze lab somewhere by someone. The underlying theory is that hydrocarbons are way down under the mantle/crust thingy and are remnants of the original stuff of the solar system. The article said I believe the Alaska oil field place was equal to 19 cubic miles of dinosaur with trees, which the author said was retarded.
 
dumpthemonarchy
Free Thinker
#22
Here we read of lazy politicians who don't want to tell the public that world crude oil production peaked in February 2005 and has not surpassed 85 million barrels per day since. This seems like BIG news to me because China and India's oil consumption is rising, not falling.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), the US Gelogical Survey (USGS), and OPEC all inflate their numbers, the first two relying on each other and OPEC just making them up.

People wonder, why can't Saudi Arabia produce more oil? Oh yes, blame the speculators for that. It could be time to panic.



http://politics.guardian.co.uk/comme...216342,00.html

$100 oil: the terrible truth



Nearing the price barrier is a pointer to the peak of output, and the crisis the powerful want to ignore

David Strahan
Saturday November 24, 2007
The Guardian



As the price of crude oil sets records almost daily, the British government remains stunningly complacent. With the $100 barrel a real and constant threat, the prime minister's website blithely proclaims "the world's oil and gas resources are sufficient to sustain economic growth for the foreseeable future". Officials refuse to define what is meant by "foreseeable", but it is clear they suffer from extreme myopia, or worse. All the evidence suggests we are rapidly approaching "peak oil", the point when global production goes into terminal decline for geological reasons. The industry consensus is that world output, excluding that from the Opec producers, will peak in about 2010. It is also widely agreed that Opec has grossly exaggerated the size of its reserves, meaning that global output must also peak soon. Since oil provides 95% of all transport energy, as well as vital inputs to modern agriculture, this is likely to provoke a crisis.

Oil executives have traditionally avoided talk of geological constraints - no doubt mindful of the value of their share options - but now even they admit the industry is in difficulty. A growing number believe output will never exceed 100m barrels per day, compared with 86m today. At present rates of growth, demand will hit that ceiling within about a decade.

The UK position relies on the International Energy Agency, which forecasts oil production rising to 116m barrels per day in 2030. But the model that produces this forecast relies in turn on an estimate of the total oil available published by the US Geological Survey, which is demonstrably wildly overoptimistic.

For the US survey numbers to come true, the world would have to discover 22bn barrels of oil a year between 1995 and 2025. So far we have discovered just 9bn per year, only 40% of the predicted amount. Since oil discovery has been falling steadily since 1965, this deficit is only likely to widen. Even if we assume annual discoveries stick at the current level for the next 20 years, the survey resource estimate is still 500bn barrels too high: the survey numbers imply an oil production peak in 2017-21.

The US survey estimate has long been criticised as inflated, but now even the optimistic IEA is having doubts. The agency is to reappraise its reliance on the survey figures for its long-term production forecast next year. It is difficult to see how it can do this without a huge downward revision of its forecast. Britain's official position is therefore built not only on sand, but the sand of an hourglass that is fast running out.

In fact, peak oil may have arrived already. Production of crude is lower now than in February 2005, while total liquid fuel production, including marginal sources such as biofuels, is lower than in July 2006. Even if it's not peak oil as such, production is struggling. Meanwhile demand continues to surge; the soaring price sends a clear message.
Tony Blair wrote in last year's energy review that it was a principal duty of government to secure energy supply. He was right. Gordon Brown must now abandon the reliance on IEA forecasts, institute a truly independent assessment of global oil depletion and launch a massive programme of mitigation. Anything less would be dereliction.

But of course he won't. Even more than climate change, peak oil demands that governments confront voters with uncomfortable truths that will affect living standards. In Whitehall, legs will remain crossed and buttocks clenched as politicians and officials pray to God that it doesn't happen in their term of office, or before they draw their inflation-linked pension.
· David Strahan is the author of The Last Oil Shock: A Survival Guide to the Imminent Extinction of Petroleum Man

www.lastoilshock.com

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