IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end China’s economy will surpass that of America


petros
#1
The International Monetary Fund has just dropped a bombshell, and nobody noticed.

For the first time, the international organization has set a date for the moment when the “Age of America” will end and the U.S. economy will be overtaken by that of China.

The Obama deficit tour

The Wall Street Journal editorial page’s Steve Moore critiques the president's speeches attacking Republican budget plans.

And it’s a lot closer than you may think.

According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China’s economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now.

Put that in your calendar.

It provides a painful context for the budget wrangling taking place in Washington, D.C., right now. It raises enormous questions about what the international security system is going to look like in just a handful of years. And it casts a deepening cloud over both the U.S. dollar and the giant Treasury market, which have been propped up for decades by their privileged status as the liabilities of the world’s hegemonic power.

According to the IMF forecast, whomever is elected U.S. president next year — Obama? Mitt Romney? Donald Trump? — will be the last to preside over the world’s largest economy.

Most people aren’t prepared for this. They aren’t even aware it’s that close. Listen to experts of various stripes, and they will tell you this moment is decades away. The most bearish will put the figure in the mid-2020s.


China’s economy will be the world’s largest within five years or so.



But they’re miscounting. They’re only comparing the gross domestic products of the two countries using current exchange rates.

That’s a largely meaningless comparison in real terms. Exchange rates change quickly. And China’s exchange rates are phony. China artificially undervalues its currency, the renminbi, through massive intervention in the markets.




The comparison that really matters

The IMF in its analysis looks beyond exchange rates to the true, real terms picture of the economies using “purchasing power parities.” That compares what people earn and spend in real terms in their domestic economies.

Under PPP, the Chinese economy will expand from $11.2 trillion this year to $19 trillion in 2016. Meanwhile the size of the U.S. economy will rise from $15.2 trillion to $18.8 trillion. That would take America’s share of the world output down to 17.7%, the lowest in modern times. China’s would reach 18%, and rising.

Just 10 years ago, the U.S. economy was three times the size of China’s.
 
YukonJack
Conservative
#2
Before those who despise America bring out the champaign in celebration of this "good" news, they should remember that as America's economy goes, so does Canada's economy to a very large degree.
 
petros
#3
No **** Sherlock!
 
taxslave
Free Thinker
#4
Quote: Originally Posted by YukonJack View Post

Before those who despise America bring out the champaign in celebration of this "good" news, they should remember that as America's economy goes, so does Canada's economy to a very large degree.

And as long as those in government think they are entitled to their entitlements not much will change until it is too late if it is not already.
 
petros
#5
I guess we can't be using the lineated terms of 1st 2nd and 3rd worlds without admittingly having democracy being dropped to position of 2nd world.

Not a good thing at all.
 
mentalfloss
#6
Ugh.. As much as I could really give two clicks who the world's economic leader is - it's pretty disgusting that America is herein defined by its economic prosperity. What about liberty and social freedom? Do people seriously think the U.S. was solely defined by its financial prowess?
 
taxslave
Free Thinker
#7
Quote: Originally Posted by mentalfloss View Post

What about liberty and social freedom? Do people seriously think the U.S. was solely defined by its financial prowess?

Yes. Life in jail for smoking a joint is hardly social freedom.
 
petros
#8
Quote: Originally Posted by taxslave View Post

Yes. Life in jail for smoking a joint is hardly social freedom.

All you have to do is not pay your taxes and the freedom thing all falls apart when armed men are sent to fetch you up and auction off all your ****.
 
taxslave
Free Thinker
#9
And the opposition by many to government health care.
And the burning of books by intolerant religious fanatics.
 
Avro
No Party Affiliation
#10
Quote: Originally Posted by taxslave View Post

Yes. Life in jail for smoking a joint is hardly social freedom.

Guess that's why Harper needs to build more jails.....must be some sort of reason.

I guess he plans to fight the ruling by the Ontario courts.
 
mentalfloss
#11
Quote: Originally Posted by Avro View Post

Guess that's why Harper needs to build more jails.....must be some sort of reason.

I guess he plans to fight the ruling by the Ontario courts.

That's in about two months, right?

Looks like perfect timing to me.
 
petros
#12
Quote: Originally Posted by Avro View Post

Guess that's why Harper needs to build more jails.....must be some sort of reason.

I guess he plans to fight the ruling by the Ontario courts.

Those would be for the vast number of Americans that will be flooding across the border over the next 5 years as America sinks.

Could things get even worse for the US considering that S&P wants to downgrade the US govt's credit rating? Yup. It's not going to be pretty either.
 
Avro
No Party Affiliation
#13
Quote: Originally Posted by mentalfloss View Post

That's in about two months, right?

Looks like perfect timing to me.

Seems that way....wonder if old Steve will let us have a puff now and then or extend prohibition.
 
mentalfloss
#14
Quote: Originally Posted by Avro View Post

Seems that way....wonder if old Steve will let us have a puff now and then or extend prohibition.

I'm sure he'll let things slide. It's Ignatieff who sold his soul to the U.S. remember?
 
Avro
No Party Affiliation
#15
Quote: Originally Posted by mentalfloss View Post

I'm sure he'll let things slide. It's Ignatieff who sold his soul to the U.S. remember?


Riiiiiiiight.
 
Highball
#16
America has worked long and hard to sink itself. It all began with NAFTA. Then came CAFTA and the Open Seas Treaty. Self emasculation is what seem to the mode of the day in the Halls of Congress.
 
gopher
No Party Affiliation
+1
#17  Top Rated Post
Blame Clinton!

Blame Obama!

Blame Gopher!
 

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