With nine weeks to go, the Ontario election is Doug Ford's to lose


Murphy
#1
It's a wee bit early to trust in polls, but 9 weeks off, this is how things stack up. Like the past two PC leaaders, this election is Ford's to lose.

I'm not sure how long this will be up, but CBC is using this poll tracker
- https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/
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With nine weeks to go, the Ontario election is Doug Ford's to lose
Follow the trends of the upcoming provincial election campaign with the Ontario Poll Tracker
- …ric Grenier ∑ CBC News



If the election were being held today, Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives very likely would form the next government of Ontario.

But the election will not be held today. It'll happen on June 7 — and between now and then, the Ontario Poll Tracker will follow the trends in public opinion as voters in Ontario decide who they will place at the helm of the country's most populous province.

The new Ontario Poll Tracker is an aggregation of all publicly released polls — an average that is weighted by a poll's date (newer ones are given more weight) and sample size (bigger ones are given more weight), and by the pollster's track record (better ones are given more weight).

Aggregating polls has the benefit of following the overall trend rather than focusing on the differences between one poll and the next — differences that often can be chalked up to methodology and margins of error, rather than any specific event in a campaign or an actual shift in public opinion.

But when many polls are saying the same thing, it makes it easier to discern the overall trend. And currently, that trend appears to be in the PCs' favour.

According to the Poll Tracker, the Ontario PCs currently stand at 42.1 per cent support, putting them well ahead of their rivals. Kathleen Wynne's Liberals trail with 27.2 per cent, followed by the New Democrats at 23.4 per cent and the Greens at 5.7 per cent.

With nine weeks to go, the Ontario election is Doug Ford's to lose | CBC News
 
captain morgan
#2


For sure, Premier Wynne has the popcorn vote
 
Retired_Can_Soldier
+1
#3  Top Rated Post
If Ontario re-elects the corrupt government they now have in place, they deserve every stupid thing the liberals do.

Doug Ford better not pull a Hudak.
 
Murphy
#4
The mood so far is that Wynne must go. I wish for a return to the days when the peasants were storming castles, ousting incompetent rulers. There's something about being burned at the stake or losing your head that tends to introduce responsibility to those in charge.
 
Walter
+1
#5
Quote: Originally Posted by Retired_Can_Soldier View Post

If Ontario re-elects the corrupt government they now have in place, they deserve every stupid thing the liberals do.

Doug Ford better not pull a Hudak.

Or a John Tory.
 
Hoid
#6
Or himself.
 
Murphy
+1
#7
Quote: Originally Posted by Walter View Post

Or a John Tory.

So far, no gaffes. The executive is probably doing what they can to keep everything on the straight and narrow. Ontario cannot afford the Liberals.
 
Retired_Can_Soldier
+1
#8
The Liberals are certainly hoping so.

I still think the Patrick Brown deal was a Liberal attempt to screw up the conservatives before the election and it is now looking like they [Liberals] have really shot themselves in the foot.
 
captain morgan
#9
Quote: Originally Posted by Retired_Can_Soldier View Post

If Ontario re-elects the corrupt government they now have in place, they deserve every stupid thing the liberals do.

Doug Ford better not pull a Hudak.

It seems that most folks believe that this election is Ford's to lose
 
Murphy
+1
#10
Another poll.

More than half of decided or leaning voters plan to vote for Tories in June election: poll

Chris Fox, CP24.com - April 6, 2018

A provincial budget that invests billions in child care, health care and new supports for seniors appears to have done little to boost the electoral fortunes of Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne, according to a new poll.


The Mainstreet Research poll of 1,969 adults has found that Doug Ford and the Tories have the support of 50.3 per cent of decided or leaning voters compared to 23.9 per cent for Wynne’s Liberals and 18.3 per cent for Andrea Horwath and the NDP. The Green Party had the support of 5.2 per cent of voters while another 2.4 per cent of voters said that they intend to cast a ballot for another party.

https://www.cp24.com/news/more-than-...poll-1.3873714
 
Walter
#11
Ontario election prediction: PC 97, NDP 20, Lib 7
 
Murphy
#12
Is that your own prediction?
 
Walter
#13
Yep.
 
Murphy
#14
For fun, this is what I think we'll see. A few extra seats for the NDP and the Trillium party - at the expense of the Liberals, of course. The Liberals still have support around the GTA.

PC 60
NDP 22
Lib - 20
Trillium - 3
The rest - 2
 
Walter
#15
Quote: Originally Posted by Murphy View Post

For fun, this is what I think we'll see. A few extra seats for the NDP and the Trillium party - at the expense of the Liberals, of course. The Liberals still have support around the GTA.

PC 60
NDP 22
Lib - 20
Trillium - 3
The rest - 2

There are 124 seats in this yearís ON election, 17 more than current numbers.
 
Murphy
+1
#16
Okay. Here is the revised guesstimate.

PC 69
NDP 24
Lib - 24
Trillium - 5
The rest - 2