Conservatives approaching majority territory!


Breakthrough2006
#1
New poll shows Tories in the lead
Last Updated Thu, 05 Jan 2006 15:33:05 EST
CBC News
The Conservatives had the momentum going their way as they entered the federal election campaign's second half, suggests a new poll.

The EKOS poll, done for the Toronto Star and La Presse and published on Thursday, shows the Conservatives with a lead of nearly six percentage points over the Liberals.

It's the first time since the beginning of the campaign a poll has indicated the Tories in a clear lead across the country.

The Conservatives had the support of 36.2 per cent of the people surveyed, while 30.4 per cent said they would vote Liberal.

That lead is larger than the poll's margin of error – 2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 – indicating a clear lead.

The results are based on a sample of 1,386 respondents who were questioned Tuesday and Wednesday.

Other recent polls have shown the Conservatives gaining on the Liberals, who went into the campaign with the lead.

The latest EKOS poll showed the NDP had the support of 17.9 per cent, and the Bloc Québécois had 10.4 per cent of support nationally.

EKOS also showed that Liberal support had slipped in Ontario, where the Conservatives have to make significant gains.

The Tories were also in a statistical tie with the Liberals in Quebec. That rise apparently came at the expense of the Bloc, suggesting that the Conservatives' strategy of presenting themselves as an alternative for Quebec federalists angry with the Liberals has worked.

Not only are the Conservatives leading Nationaly, but they even managed to catch the Liberals in QUEBEC!!! Not that even exceeds my expectations for the CPC to pick up a handful of seats in Quebec. :D
 
the caracal kid
#2
it is amazing how all it takes to sell something is a well planned and executed marketing plan! the plebs have such short attention spans and memories, just they way those with power prefer it.

Fortunately, there is always an exit strategy.
 
Texas1
#3
Quote: Originally Posted by the caracal kid

it is amazing how all it takes to sell something is a well planned and executed marketing plan! the plebs have such short attention spans and memories, just they way those with power prefer it.

Fortunately, there is always an exit strategy.

You heading for the roof already? why not wait till the 23rd
 
#juan
No Party Affiliation
#4
Fortunately, there is still time for Harper to shoot himself in the foot again. Also, there is that 17% who are undecided, and would give either party the edge.
 
the caracal kid
#5
The roof?
 
Toro
#6
After spending the past two weeks of December in Canada, I came to the conclusion that Harper is going to win. I didn't think that before I went up there.
 
Jersay
#7
Most likely but not with a majority. I don't think Canadians would want to even stomach a Liberal majority.

Because what do parties do when they have a majority. They can sit on their ass and do crap all for five years, in Canada, and get their paychecks. But with a minority, they have to keep their promises and get something done.
 
Hank C
#8
We need not get to cocky, there is still alot of time and anything can happen on election day. Having said that I am pleased people are giving the CPC a look and are reluctant to support a shamed corrupt party(Liberal Party). People are looking for a change in Canada and they are not buying all the Martin "fear tactics" because it has become to transparent. All they have against the CPC is speculations which are heavily partisan biased, on the other hand the Liberal party has been caught with their pants down to many times and its hard to belive them anymore.
 
Toro
#9
Well, I didn't say they would win, just that I thought he would. And I'd be surprised if it were a majority.
 
Jersay
#10
Quote:

Well, I didn't say they would win, just that I thought he would. And I'd be surprised if it were a majority.

Just stating about the heading, Conservatives heading to Majority territory.

But I am also agreeing with you that even as an NDP supporter I think the Cons will win.
 
Hank C
#11
No I doubt it will be a majority....... instead a minority with 2 other left wing parties in the house. Thus people on the left will not have to be uncomfortable as it will still be a balanced house. The desire for change is much to strong for the Liberals to win a majority.
 
Hank C
#12
I really would love to see Paul Martins ugly mug after a election loss.....who would of thought in 2003 when he came in that he would have nothing less than majority governments..... looks like the golden boy is on his way to the noose....can't say I feel sorry for him, he has alienated to many people with his cheap rheoteric. Let the Liberal party fix their problems in the comfort of the opposition seats.
 
the caracal kid
#13
just wait until there is a cry to unite the left!

cringe!

A few party name changes later, we can end up with the Progressive Party of Canada.

We could then enjoy a house of Progressives, Conservatives, Bloc.

As they say, the names change, but the story remains the same.
 
paulmartin
#14
The liberals could no more win a majority than the lottery.
And where is the 1.4 million or was it 700000 the government was holding in trust until a verdict was made by judge Gomery?
Shouldn't the taxpayer get this cash back now. After all 40 million is gone with no trace. I guess all those contracts were done with a handshake? 40 million bucks gone with no trace. Have you ever bought a lotto ticket?
How many jackpots is that? Sure were all running to vote Liberal!
Not
 
Hank C
#15
Quote: Originally Posted by the caracal kid

just wait until there is a cry to unite the left!

cringe!

A few party name changes later, we can end up with the Progressive Party of Canada.

We could then enjoy a house of Progressives, Conservatives, Bloc.

As they say, the names change, but the story remains the same.

lol...the NDP and Liberals would not be able to form one party. Believe it or not the Libs and Cons and not that different economicaly....while the NDP is a extreme socialist party. There is a reason Canada has never elected an NDP government, epecially with swine like Svend Robinson. People don't want to completely socalize everything..."the send all your money to Ottawa and we will tell you how to spend it" rhetoric is not popular with the majority of adults who work hard for a living.
 
paulmartin
#16
Quote:

Ottawa and we will tell you how to spend it" rhetoric is not popular with the majority of adults who work hard for a living.

I hear ya my friends at work all like the proposed GST cut most of all. It's nostalgic and a promise the conservatives have to keep or end up opposition for a few more decades.
My boss says you have to kick the crooks you know out.
 
the caracal kid
#17
i wasn't thinking of the libs becomming one with the NDP, but with a liberal meltdown, a splitting up of the libs into their various camps. Then, the leftist part of the party would end up merging with the NDP to form a more central-left party and the righist part joining the Cons (resulting in the cons actually becoming the central-right party they like to tell people they are).

Now as for those "who work hard for a living": they should figure out how the names change but the game remains the same! (as you said the PC's and the Libs governed fairly similarily).
 
Canucklehead
#18
The sampling size on this survey is better than most but still falls far short of being worthy of discussion. Show me the polling conducted on 2000+ and then we have something statistically worthy. Otherwise, it's essentially useless.

Also to note: during the 04 campaign there was a snippet on CBC that showed, if memory serves, that somewhere around 20% of those polled regarding voting intentions intentionally lied about their responses.
 
Jersay
#19
Good point.

In the sample size of B.C, there was only 180 people polled. What the heck is that? The Cons got almost 50% of the vote with 180 people. Where did they poll, if they polled in the Interior of course the Cons would get a bigger number.

I wonder how and where these polling stations do their polling? And if they are Liberal or Conservative friendly? No polling station is NDP friendly or they would be closer.

Also, good point about if people lie during these polling questions.

Good points Canucklehead
 
JomZ
#20
Quote:

i wasn't thinking of the libs becomming one with the NDP, but with a liberal meltdown, a splitting up of the libs into their various camps. Then, the leftist part of the party would end up merging with the NDP to form a more central-left party and the righist part joining the Cons (resulting in the cons actually becoming the central-right party they like to tell people they are).

Funny isn't it that the center rights to join the CPC to offset the hardliners and make it the PCs again (aka PCPCs), or go green... While the lefties go join the Bloc or the NDP. Or if they could sway the more centerist party members from both left camps to reform the New Liberal party
 
Toro
#21
I think the Tories have run an excellent campaign and the income trust thing may have been the straw that breaks the camel's back.
 
I think not
#22
I'm curious how many on this board prefer a majority government over a minority one. Anyway care to comment?
 
TenPenny
#23
Personally, I prefer a majority gov't, because it can get things done. Minorities just allow everyone to fight the next election early. Clark and Martin are relatively recent examples. Did Martin's gov't accomplish anything? Not that I can see.

My two cents worth. Others may differ.
 
JomZ
#24
Minorities have their benefits as we have seen, it gives the smaller parties more clout in the formation of legislation.

I have found that it forces the governing party to find a stronger consensus with other parties (NDP and Bloc deals were struck for support of ssm deals and the budget).

If you think that nothing much happened during the 38th parliment... think again. Much of it was taken up with the Adscam and SSM legislation, but there were smaller but more serious bills (Crime legislation for decriminalizing marijuana and laws for those caught driving under the influence of drugs)

Here is a detailed account of what the Martin Parliment did
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl...lDecision2006/
 
Colpy
Conservative
#25
Quote: Originally Posted by I think not

I'm curious how many on this board prefer a majority government over a minority one. Anyway care to comment?

If the CPC gets the most seats, I prefer a majority.

If the Liberals get the most seats, I prefer a minority.

 
Breakthrough2006
#26
I would like to see a majority Conservative government so that the left wing zealots will finally realize that Canada will continue to exist if we vote in Harper.

I'm tired of the baseless fearmongering and it appears that the country is getting tired of it also.
 
Jersay
#27
Happy with any minority.
 
Jo Canadian
#28
Quote: Originally Posted by I think not

I'm curious how many on this board prefer a majority government over a minority one. Anyway care to comment?

I find in some ways having a minority is interesting, because all parties involved need to be involved with everything on the table. No single party can push something the others don't agree with because of that. I see it then since every member of each party is represented by the voting people of canada then when the do agree with on something, it is at least represented by The Majority of Canadians (lets say 70% as an example) rather than a minority of Canadians with a Majority leadership (in this case it would be 50-55%). The only downside to this is, is that to reach any agreement takes a bit more time because of the negotiating and hashing out the details on whatever they're working on.

So anyways I think that forcing the parties to work together in the end may actually make them learn* the advantages of cooperation.



*That is in the hope politicians can actually learn something new...and retain it.
 
the caracal kid
#29
i prefer a minorty because it provides for a greater range of perspectives in the process.

majorities, especially when the parties are quite far apart on issues, tend to show a see-saw effect as the party in power is alternated.
 
poligeek
#30
I never put any real stock in polls, we saw similar polls this time last election and they were supposedly "deadlocked" in the polls on election night.

My personal baseless predictions:
I think the Bloc will do better in Quebec.
The Conservatives will gain in the West.
Vote-rich Ontario is still predominently Liberal.
I think the NDP is in danger of loosing votes due to the Lib v. Cons fearmongering.
I think the Green Party is in danger of loosing vote % due to the same thing.
I think it will be really interesting to see how low voter turn out is this time.

I perfer a minority government. We elect politicians to lead this country and unity (not just on Quebec) is a huge issue. Minority governments force the politicans to actually negotiate and reconcile with each other rather than ram their own agenda through. I'd rather see them have to earn the wages by producing legislation that has been agreed on by as many viewpoints as possible than ramrodding one party line.

That being said, has this board ever held disussion on changing the voting system? We're one of the last countries in the world clinging to a first-past-the-post, winner-take all majoritarian system.
 

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