No Deal Brexit is NO big deal — we could have £39bn in our pockets and free trade


Blackleaf
#1
Even if Theresa May never really believed it, the nation took to heart her message that No Deal is better than a bad deal.

And the people, with their characteristic good sense, are right...

JACOB REES-MOGG No Deal Brexit is NO big deal — we could have £39bn in our pockets and free-flowing trade

Comment
By Jacob Rees-Mogg, Conservative MP for North East Somerset

30th May 2019
The Sun

VOTERS have consistently rejected Project Fear and this has been shown once again by the European Parliamentary results.

The sheer enthusiasm of Brexit Party voters for leaving cleanly no later than October 31 and their frustration that the United Kingdom is still in the European Union proved that we are not a nation to be cowed.

Voters have consistently rejected Project Fear and embraced the idea of a No Deal Brexit, writes Jacob Rees-Mogg

Even if Theresa May never really believed it, the nation took to heart her message that No Deal is better than a bad deal.

And the people, with their characteristic good sense, are right.

Fortunately, there is no legal obligation, as set out in the House of Lords report, to pay the EU any money at all if we leave without a deal.

That means we have £39billion to spend on our priorities rather than squandering it on the EU’s wasteful and consistently unaudited budget.

This could be used for tax cuts to encourage business investment. The rates burden could be reduced or stamp duty cut.

There may even be some room for expenditure in pressing areas such as social care for the elderly or helping the hard-pressed police.

£39billion is a serious amount of money which could have a significant domestic effect rather than being little more than overseas aid for rich countries.

Then we could trade with the EU on the basis of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). This provides a framework for treating countries fairly. The UK, in spite of allowing the EU to represent our interests in recent years, has always been a founder member, and as soon as we have left we may resume our rightful place.

The WTO allows nations to set tariffs that will then be applied to all other members in the absence of specific free trade deals.

The concept of “most favoured nation” means that it is unlawful to discriminate against one country.

The effect of this is that the EU could not charge higher tariffs against us than it does on goods from the United States.

As the US has seen its trade with the EU grow faster since the introduction of the Single Market than the UK’s has, it is clearly no barrier to successful business.

Likewise, the UK would have to levy the same payments on EU goods as we do on others — and here we would have a choice.
Would we want to lower tariffs generally, cutting the cost of goods for consumers, or keep the protectionist barriers that make Europe so expensive?

It seems obvious that we ought to cut tariffs to improve living standards, *especially for the least well-off in society, allowing them to have more money to save or spend.

Historically, nations that have cut the cost of imports have become more prosperous and there are non-tariff barriers that the EU imposes purely to protect inefficient continental industries that could also be removed.

Against this opportunity there are many myths that have grown up, fed and watered by those who never wanted to leave the EU.

First, they say that the WTO has other agreements tacked on — over 100 with the US alone — and without them trade would stall.

This is a misunderstanding.

These add-ons include treaties such as the Paris Climate Accord which are not trade-related.

Only about 30 have any trade relevance of which only one is important and it has already been rolled over.

As they are purely technical, rolling them over is not difficult as has already been shown.

Other doomsters say that just-in-time delivery cannot work under WTO — which is odd, as it already does.

What matters for these processes is certainty of delivery times.

The six seconds that it takes goods to clear customs in Southampton on average is insignificant compared to potential delays on the M25 which businesses already have to contend with.

The UK already trades extensively and successfully on a WTO basis so *extending it to the EU would not be problematic.

The paranoid and the scaredy-cats also moan that more checks would have to be made, but again that is incorrect.

Jon Thompson, the chief executive of Customs and Excise, confirmed that delays would be no worse than they currently are for imports.

There is no WTO rule to create inefficiencies. The purpose of the organisation is the reverse. The system of cross-border trade is not that which people imagine from watching 1960s spy films.

In addition, both Calais and Dover, the only real pinch points, are both prepared and ready for No Deal.

As for Ireland, the simple question remains: Who is going to build the wall?

There will be no hard border because no one wants one and that has always been the simple answer to a much over-complicated question.

In truth the fears are like the supposed Millennium Bug, a fantasy of fevered minds.

After all, with £39billion, free-flowing trade and cheaper imports, as former Trade and Industry Secretary Peter Lilley has said: “It is not crashing out, it is cashing in.”

Historically, nations that have cut the cost of of imports have prosperedCredit: AFP

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/918040...-not-big-deal/
 
Tecumsehsbones
#2
Easy answer for the EU. Tariff everything at 50% until they've collected 39bil. Then reduce it to 25%.
 
White_Unifier
#3
Quote: Originally Posted by Tecumsehsbones View Post

Easy answer for the EU. Tariff everything at 50% until they've collected 39bil. Then reduce it to 25%.

Why would the EU want to hurt itself like that. Oh yes, I forgot. The name of the game in the trade was is to hurt your opponenet's side more than you do yours.
 
Tecumsehsbones
#4
Quote: Originally Posted by White_Unifier View Post

Why would the EU want to hurt itself like that. Oh yes, I forgot. The name of the game in the trade was is to hurt your opponenet's side more than you do yours.

How would the EU be hurting itself?
 
White_Unifier
#5
Quote: Originally Posted by Tecumsehsbones View Post

How would the EU be hurting itself?

By taxing its consumers on UK imports and so undermining economies of scale and transportation efficiency?
 
Tecumsehsbones
#6
Quote: Originally Posted by White_Unifier View Post

By taxing its consumers on UK imports and so undermining economies of scale and transportation efficiency?

Don't be ridiculous. There is nothing Britain exports that cannot be sourced from within the EU. The tariffs will be paid only by fools. Being a fool should have a price.
 
White_Unifier
#7
Quote: Originally Posted by Tecumsehsbones View Post

Don't be ridiculous. There is nothing Britain exports that cannot be sourced from within the EU. The tariffs will be paid only by fools. Being a fool should have a price.

Transport costs of the same product from Folkestone to Calais will be much cheaper than from Warsaw to Calais just because of the transportation costs. Also, it would be cheaper for the EU to just import any highly specialized product from the UK than produce its own on a lower economy of scale.

Economics 101 man.
 
Tecumsehsbones
#8
Quote: Originally Posted by White_Unifier View Post

Transport costs of the same product from Folkestone to Calais will be much cheaper than from Warsaw to Calais just because of the transportation costs. Also, it would be cheaper for the EU to just import any highly specialized product from the UK than produce its own on a lower economy of scale.
Economics 101 man.

Be interesting to see your data on that.

I abso-freakin-lutely challenge you to name a specialized or high-tech product the UK can produce that Germany can't, and Frankfurt is the central transport hub for the entire continent.
 
Blackleaf
#9
Quote: Originally Posted by Tecumsehsbones View Post

Be interesting to see your data on that.

I abso-freakin-lutely challenge you to name a specialized or high-tech product the UK can produce that Germany can't, and Frankfurt is the central transport hub for the entire continent.

The UK produces lots of hi-tech products that the rest of the EU doesn't. Satellites, for instance. The UK manufactures a huge amount of satellites. In fact, only the USA, China, Russia and Japan have more satellites in orbit than Britain has. Britain has more than twice as many satellites as Germany, which is number two in the EU for satellites.

Britain is ahead of every other EU member state when it comes to hi-tech product manufacturing. The UK is well ahead of every other EU member state in terms of technology start-ups. Since 2010, 3000 fedgling technology groups have been set up in the UK.



London dominates tech start-up investment in Europe

UK tech investment is on a high and London-based firms attracted the lion’s share of funding, according to a market survey by London & Partners.

British tech firms attracted more venture capital funding than any other European country in 2017.

According to data compiled for London & Partners by PitchBook, venture capital investment into the UK’s tech sector reached an all-time high in 2017 with UK firms attracting £2.9bn.

This was almost double the total amount invested in 2016.

London-based tech firms accounted for around 80% of all UK venture capital tech funding in 2017, raising £2.45bn.

Some of the biggest deals last year included a £391m Series B investment into Improbable, Deliveroo (£364m) and Truphone (£255m).

London’s artificial intelligence (AI) companies saw high levels of funding in 2017.

Big deals for companies such as Babylon Health (£47.56m), Callsign (£26.92m) and Starship Technologies (£13.95m) saw investment in London AI companies reach over £200m – increasing over 50% on 2016 funding levels.

This trend was replicated nationally, with UK AI companies raising a record £488m last year and double the amount raised (£232m) in 2016.

https://www.electronicsweekly.com/ne...urope-2018-01/
Last edited by Blackleaf; May 31st, 2019 at 05:54 AM..
 
Tecumsehsbones
#10
Quote: Originally Posted by Blackleaf View Post

Britain has more than twice as many satellites as Germany, which is number two in the EU for satellites.

Thank you for proving my point.
 
Blackleaf
#11
Quote: Originally Posted by Tecumsehsbones View Post

Thank you for proving my point.

Not quite. I would wager, as the EU's and Europe technical hub, the UK produces a lot of advanced technology that Germany doesn't.

Surrey Satellite Technology is the world's leading commercial satellite producer. The UK has five commercial satellite producing companies - Surrey Satellite Technology, British Aerospace, Clyde Space, In Space Missions, and Hawker Siddeley Dynamics - and Germany just one.

So whilst Germany can produce satellites, the UK produces a lot more of them, and has likely produced many German satellites.
 
White_Unifier
#12
Quote: Originally Posted by Tecumsehsbones View Post

Be interesting to see your data on that.
I abso-freakin-lutely challenge you to name a specialized or high-tech product the UK can produce that Germany can't, and Frankfurt is the central transport hub for the entire continent.

I never said 'can't'. I was referring to economies of scale. Obviously producing a specialized product for the EU and UK market will prove more efficient than just for the EU market.
 
White_Unifier
#13
Quote: Originally Posted by Blackleaf View Post

Not quite. I would wager, as the EU's and Europe technical hub, the UK produces a lot of advanced technology that Germany doesn't.
Surrey Satellite Technology is the world's leading commercial satellite producer. The UK has five commercial satellite producing companies - Surrey Satellite Technology, British Aerospace, Clyde Space, In Space Missions, and Hawker Siddeley Dynamics - and Germany just one.
So whilst Germany can produce satellites, the UK produces a lot more of them, and has likely produced many German satellites.

If the EU tariffs the UK, the UK will suffer a major loss of economies of scale. It could compensate at least in part through unilateral global free trade; but if it turns to protectionism instead, then it will really hurt in economies of scale.
Last edited by White_Unifier; Jun 2nd, 2019 at 05:18 AM..
 
Blackleaf
#14

A new Mail on Sunday poll shows voters are becoming less concerned about the effects of a hard Brexit
 
Blackleaf
#15
This poll has the Brexit Party in the lead. Bring on a general election and let's have Farage as PM and a Brexit Party government!



An Opinium poll (left) has Nigel Farage's Brexit Party on top with 26 per cent of the vote, ahead of Labour on 22 per cent, marking the first time the new party had topped a national poll. Mr Farage (inset) hailed the poll as an 'historic moment', sharing it on Twitter. The new poll has the Conservatives down in third with just 17 per cent of the vote, and the Liberal Democrats in fourth on 16 per cent. Mr Farage believes his party could be on the verge of its first seat in parliament as it contests the Peterborough by-election on June 6, and has tried to woo voters by warning if they vote Conservative, they will end up with Labour
 
White_Unifier
#16
If public-opinion polls concluded the earth was flat, would you then declare the earth flat? I reject the democratization of fact. Fact stand above that.
 
Tecumsehsbones
+1
#17  Top Rated Post
Quote: Originally Posted by White_Unifier View Post

If public-opinion polls concluded the earth was flat, would you then declare the earth flat? I reject the democratization of fact. Fact stand above that.

No, he'd only do that if the BNP said the world was flat.
 
Hoid
#18
Quote: Originally Posted by Blackleaf View Post

This poll has the Brexit Party in the lead. Bring on a general election and let's have Farage as PM and a Brexit Party government!



An Opinium poll (left) has Nigel Farage's Brexit Party on top with 26 per cent of the vote, ahead of Labour on 22 per cent, marking the first time the new party had topped a national poll. Mr Farage (inset) hailed the poll as an 'historic moment', sharing it on Twitter. The new poll has the Conservatives down in third with just 17 per cent of the vote, and the Liberal Democrats in fourth on 16 per cent. Mr Farage believes his party could be on the verge of its first seat in parliament as it contests the Peterborough by-election on June 6, and has tried to woo voters by warning if they vote Conservative, they will end up with Labour

lol 26%