Latest Federal Polls
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LILLEY: New poll puts Greens high, Conservatives in-line for win
Brian Lilley
Published:
June 9, 2019
Updated:
June 9, 2019 5:00 PM EDT
Green Party leader Elizabeth MayErnest Doroszuk / Toronto Sun
A growing threat to Justin Trudeau’s re-election may come from a source few would have considered just a few months ago.
The latest poll from Campaign Research shows support for Elizabeth May and the Green Party on the rise, helping split the progressive vote three ways.
Nationally, the poll puts the Conservatives in the lead with 35% support, the Liberals at 32%, NDP at 14% and Greens at 12%
While May is still a long way from becoming PM, her party’s change in fortunes is coming at the expense of the NDP and Liberals.
As recently as February the Greens were polling at just 7%.
Maybe this is due to the Greens winning a recent by-election in British Columbia, doubling their number of seats to two!
Or it could be a spin-off from the May 5 provincial ballot in P.E.I. where the Greens threatened to form government.
While this is certainly great news for May, I wouldn’t be popping the carbon-neutral champagne just yet.
The poll shows that while the Greens are up, their vote — like those of the Liberals and NDP — could be fluid.
Asking voters for each party if their decision was locked-in, those supporting both the Greens and NDP were most interested in switching.
Just seven per cent said they were committed to either NDP or Green, and would not consider another party.
The news wasn’t much better for Trudeau’s Liberals.
Just 17% of voters say that Team Trudeau is the only vote they would consider, meaning as many as half of those backing the Liberals are open to switching.
For the Conservatives, one quarter of voters say the blue team is their only option, showing that they have the most dedicated voters at this time.
In news that may shock the chattering classes who still think Trudeau is a shoo-in for re-election, the Conservatives have the ability to reach the greatest number of voters at this time.
When asked which parties respondents would consider voting for, the Conservatives caught the eye of 41% while the the Liberals were hot on their heels at 40%.
Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer are tied in voter approval, with 32% saying the two main leaders are doing a good job — but Elizabeth May trumps them both with a 35% approval rating.
Thankfully the bar is low for May.
She’ll never become PM and doesn’t have to worry about what she would do to the country.
Despite her high approval rating, just 9% think she would make the best PM — which sadly for the NDP is still two points above leader Jagmeet Singh, who has only convinced 7% of respondents that should lead the country.
Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives remain in the lead nationally, and in many right-leaning regions of the country to even win a majority government.
That said, these latest numbers show the Conservatives and Liberals in a tight race for Ontario.
Part of that is surely the spillover effect from the Ontario budget handed down by Doug Ford’s PC government — the controversy of which has dominated the news for weeks and eroded Scheer’s support in the process.
The best thing the Conservatives can hope for is that the Greens remain high, the progressive vote remains split and Trudeau doesn’t find his path back to Sunny Ways.
http://campaignresearch.ca/single-post/Deadlock-continues-as-the-Green-Party-closes-in-on-the-NDP
http://torontosun.com/opinion/colum...uts-greens-high-conservatives-in-line-for-win
Brian Lilley
Published:
June 9, 2019
Updated:
June 9, 2019 5:00 PM EDT
Green Party leader Elizabeth MayErnest Doroszuk / Toronto Sun
A growing threat to Justin Trudeau’s re-election may come from a source few would have considered just a few months ago.
The latest poll from Campaign Research shows support for Elizabeth May and the Green Party on the rise, helping split the progressive vote three ways.
Nationally, the poll puts the Conservatives in the lead with 35% support, the Liberals at 32%, NDP at 14% and Greens at 12%
While May is still a long way from becoming PM, her party’s change in fortunes is coming at the expense of the NDP and Liberals.
As recently as February the Greens were polling at just 7%.
Maybe this is due to the Greens winning a recent by-election in British Columbia, doubling their number of seats to two!
Or it could be a spin-off from the May 5 provincial ballot in P.E.I. where the Greens threatened to form government.
While this is certainly great news for May, I wouldn’t be popping the carbon-neutral champagne just yet.
The poll shows that while the Greens are up, their vote — like those of the Liberals and NDP — could be fluid.
Asking voters for each party if their decision was locked-in, those supporting both the Greens and NDP were most interested in switching.
Just seven per cent said they were committed to either NDP or Green, and would not consider another party.
The news wasn’t much better for Trudeau’s Liberals.
Just 17% of voters say that Team Trudeau is the only vote they would consider, meaning as many as half of those backing the Liberals are open to switching.
For the Conservatives, one quarter of voters say the blue team is their only option, showing that they have the most dedicated voters at this time.
In news that may shock the chattering classes who still think Trudeau is a shoo-in for re-election, the Conservatives have the ability to reach the greatest number of voters at this time.
When asked which parties respondents would consider voting for, the Conservatives caught the eye of 41% while the the Liberals were hot on their heels at 40%.
Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer are tied in voter approval, with 32% saying the two main leaders are doing a good job — but Elizabeth May trumps them both with a 35% approval rating.
Thankfully the bar is low for May.
She’ll never become PM and doesn’t have to worry about what she would do to the country.
Despite her high approval rating, just 9% think she would make the best PM — which sadly for the NDP is still two points above leader Jagmeet Singh, who has only convinced 7% of respondents that should lead the country.
Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives remain in the lead nationally, and in many right-leaning regions of the country to even win a majority government.
That said, these latest numbers show the Conservatives and Liberals in a tight race for Ontario.
Part of that is surely the spillover effect from the Ontario budget handed down by Doug Ford’s PC government — the controversy of which has dominated the news for weeks and eroded Scheer’s support in the process.
The best thing the Conservatives can hope for is that the Greens remain high, the progressive vote remains split and Trudeau doesn’t find his path back to Sunny Ways.
http://campaignresearch.ca/single-post/Deadlock-continues-as-the-Green-Party-closes-in-on-the-NDP
http://torontosun.com/opinion/colum...uts-greens-high-conservatives-in-line-for-win
OH COME ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It is all very simple!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Conservatives STAY TRUE to their values!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
But LIE-berals and their civil service union HOG supporters HAVE NO VALUES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
UNLESS SOMEBODY BUYS them some!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NDPers are seen in many places as HOPELESS IMBECILES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NDPers are nothing but the less intelligent branch of the LIE-beral family!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NDPers lack the low guile and cunning to be proper LIE-berals!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
But the HOGS are ANGRY with screw up LIE-berals and their tax and spend MESS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And HOGS want to send a MESSAGE to Our idiot Boy .................................
so they have turned to support Greens!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
HOGS have done this secure in the knowledge...............................
that GREENS WILL NEVER form a majority govt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Our HOGS are well aware that Greens are even WORSE managers than EITHER LIE-berals or NDPers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And ISNT THAT a scary thought???????????????????????????
A political party MORE IDIOTIC than NDPers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
In related news.......................................
actor Kieffer Sutherland rages at Doug Ford and states "you are NO Tommy Douglas"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Gosh...................the silver spoon actor.................................................
who was RAISED by a PAIR of WEALTHY Hollywood actors..........................................
and thus NEVER came in contact with ordinary people anyway!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And who has been living mostly in Hollywood for several DECADES....................................
and THUS KNOWS LITTLE about life in Wynne-bag Ontari-owe...................................
thinks he is ENTITLED to WHINE at an ELECTED OFFICIAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Scheer's Tories hold onto lead over Trudeau's Liberals in latest election poll
Canadian Press
Published:
June 14, 2019
Updated:
June 14, 2019 12:05 PM EDT
Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer.Azin Ghaffari / Postmedia File Photo
OTTAWA — A new poll suggests the federal Liberals have stopped the bleeding from the beating they took in the SNC-Lavalin furor.
The Leger poll suggests the Liberals have closed the gap slightly with the front-running Conservatives since April and dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his government has eased a bit.
More significantly, the poll also suggests the Liberals have opened up a 14-point lead over the Conservatives when it comes to which of the two main parties Canadians would prefer to see form government after the Oct. 21 vote.
At the same time, however, the poll suggests more Canadians are worried about the prospect of four more years of Trudeau’s Liberals than they are about the Conservatives regaining power.
The poll of 1,528 Canadians, randomly recruited from Leger’s online panel, was conducted between June 7 and 10 for The Canadian Press; polling experts say online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error because they do not generate a random sample of the population.
Thirty-eight percent of respondents said they would vote for Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives if an election were held today, versus 29% for Trudeau’s Liberals — a two-point dip for the Tories and a two-point uptick for the Grits.
Another 13% said they would vote for Jagmeet Singh’s NDP, 11% for Elizabeth May’s Green Party and 3% for Maxime Bernier’s fledgling People’s Party of Canada.
Fifty-eight percent registered dissatisfaction with Trudeau’s government, down seven points, while 36% said they were satisfied, up five points.
And 25% picked Scheer as the leader they think would make the best prime minister, unchanged since April, while 22% picked Trudeau, up two points. Another 8% picked May, 6% chose Singh and 4% Bernier.
A Leger poll in April found support for the Liberals and Trudeau had sunk to a new low, in the immediate aftermath of the SNC-Lavalin affair. Trudeau lost two senior cabinet ministers, a top aide and the country’s top public servant as a result of allegations that his former attorney general, Jody Wilson-Raybould, was improperly pressured by the Prime Minister’s Office last fall to halt a criminal prosecution of the Montreal engineering giant.
While the latest survey suggests only very modest improvement for the ruling party on most questions, the biggest change came when respondents were asked whether Canada would be better off under a Liberal or a Conservative government: 34% preferred the Liberals versus 20% the Conservatives. In April, the Liberals had only a five-point lead over the Conservatives (30 to 25) on that question.
Leger executive vice-president Christian Bourque speculated that the shift is due to people getting past their initial reaction to the SNC-Lavalin affair and focusing on the choice they’ll have to make at the ballot box in October.
http://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Federal-Politics-June-2019-Voting-Intention.pdf
http://torontosun.com/news/national...ver-trudeaus-liberals-in-latest-election-poll
Canadian Press
Published:
June 14, 2019
Updated:
June 14, 2019 12:05 PM EDT
Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer.Azin Ghaffari / Postmedia File Photo
OTTAWA — A new poll suggests the federal Liberals have stopped the bleeding from the beating they took in the SNC-Lavalin furor.
The Leger poll suggests the Liberals have closed the gap slightly with the front-running Conservatives since April and dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his government has eased a bit.
More significantly, the poll also suggests the Liberals have opened up a 14-point lead over the Conservatives when it comes to which of the two main parties Canadians would prefer to see form government after the Oct. 21 vote.
At the same time, however, the poll suggests more Canadians are worried about the prospect of four more years of Trudeau’s Liberals than they are about the Conservatives regaining power.
The poll of 1,528 Canadians, randomly recruited from Leger’s online panel, was conducted between June 7 and 10 for The Canadian Press; polling experts say online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error because they do not generate a random sample of the population.
Thirty-eight percent of respondents said they would vote for Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives if an election were held today, versus 29% for Trudeau’s Liberals — a two-point dip for the Tories and a two-point uptick for the Grits.
Another 13% said they would vote for Jagmeet Singh’s NDP, 11% for Elizabeth May’s Green Party and 3% for Maxime Bernier’s fledgling People’s Party of Canada.
Fifty-eight percent registered dissatisfaction with Trudeau’s government, down seven points, while 36% said they were satisfied, up five points.
And 25% picked Scheer as the leader they think would make the best prime minister, unchanged since April, while 22% picked Trudeau, up two points. Another 8% picked May, 6% chose Singh and 4% Bernier.
A Leger poll in April found support for the Liberals and Trudeau had sunk to a new low, in the immediate aftermath of the SNC-Lavalin affair. Trudeau lost two senior cabinet ministers, a top aide and the country’s top public servant as a result of allegations that his former attorney general, Jody Wilson-Raybould, was improperly pressured by the Prime Minister’s Office last fall to halt a criminal prosecution of the Montreal engineering giant.
While the latest survey suggests only very modest improvement for the ruling party on most questions, the biggest change came when respondents were asked whether Canada would be better off under a Liberal or a Conservative government: 34% preferred the Liberals versus 20% the Conservatives. In April, the Liberals had only a five-point lead over the Conservatives (30 to 25) on that question.
Leger executive vice-president Christian Bourque speculated that the shift is due to people getting past their initial reaction to the SNC-Lavalin affair and focusing on the choice they’ll have to make at the ballot box in October.
http://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Federal-Politics-June-2019-Voting-Intention.pdf
http://torontosun.com/news/national...ver-trudeaus-liberals-in-latest-election-poll
With pre-election summer looming, Conservatives hang on to their lead
A new 338Canada/Maclean’s projection: Tories in the lead
Top link is CBC with an interpretation of a 4 point lead over Libs, and Maclean's with a 8-9 point lead I wonder who got more bail out money Lol
A new 338Canada/Maclean’s projection: Tories in the lead
Top link is CBC with an interpretation of a 4 point lead over Libs, and Maclean's with a 8-9 point lead I wonder who got more bail out money Lol
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POOR STUPID LIE-berals!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jerry Diaz and his UNIFOR HOGS - who happen to represent THOUSANDS of unionized Cdn journalists..........................
are part of the team handing out that six hundred million dollar SLUSH FUND LIE-berals created to give to.................................
"JOURNALISTS THEY TRUST"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LIE-berals are trying to BUY OUR ELECTION with this biased and BIGOTED BRIBERY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
In the last election CBC....................................................
our Communist Broadcasting Corp, WAS CAUGHT..............................................
using a DELIBERATELY BIASED VERSION of "fair use policy" .........................................
to DELIBERATELY KEEP anti LIE-beral opinion OFF CBC news!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
DELIBERATE CBC CENSORSHIP in favour of LIE-berals!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And of course the CBC position had NOTHING TO DO with maintaining the CBC budget.............................
did it???????????????????????????
And now we have a deluge of LIE-beral FAKE NEWS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Brought to us by the same people who now have OUR $600 million dollar LIE-beral media SLUSH FUND IN THEIR POCKETS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is how democracy DIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WHO IS DESTROYING the oil industry???????????????????????????
AND TELLING US IT IS FOR OUR BENEFIT?????????????????????????????????
It is Fake News purveyors like hemer-HOID!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And who is grossly miss-representing the Cdn tax regime for personal benefit????????????????????????
It is LIE-berals as USUAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Latest polls and projections
Updated on June 18, 2019 at 10:24am ET
Poll averages
CON
35.3%
down-0.7
LIB
29.9%
up+0.1
NDP
14.0%
down-1.1
GRN
11.6%
up+0.9
BQ
4.4%
up+0.1
PPC
2.8%
up+0.3
OTH
2.0%
up+0.5
Seat projections
CON 160
116-205
LIB 129
80-195
NDP 23
3-45
BQ 20
5-35
GRN 5
4-15
OTH 1
0-1
PPC0
01
Probability of winning
32% Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority
33% Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority
21% Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority
15% Probability of the Liberals winning a majority
Updated on June 18, 2019 at 10:24am ET
Poll averages
CON
35.3%
down-0.7
LIB
29.9%
up+0.1
NDP
14.0%
down-1.1
GRN
11.6%
up+0.9
BQ
4.4%
up+0.1
PPC
2.8%
up+0.3
OTH
2.0%
up+0.5
Seat projections
CON 160
116-205
LIB 129
80-195
NDP 23
3-45
BQ 20
5-35
GRN 5
4-15
OTH 1
0-1
PPC0
01
Probability of winning
32% Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority
33% Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority
21% Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority
15% Probability of the Liberals winning a majority
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I would have bet the chances of the Liberals winning in any capacity with Justin as P.M. would be ZERO! Something is wrong!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GOOD POINT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Not only did Bombardier get a billion dollars in a single year from Our idiot Boy Justin.......................................
They also got MILLIONS MORE to screw around.............................................
with the Toronto Transit Commission purchase of streetcars...........................
it is BAD that the contract is several YEARS BEHIND schedule...............................
BUT IT IS EVEN WORSE.......................................
that the streetcars they did deliver.........................................
HAVE TO GO BACK AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
To have FAULTY FRAME WELD CORRECTED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And of course we ought to count the MILLIONS MORE that Our idiot Boy gave to TTC....................................
so they could keep their ramshackle old fleet of street cars......................................................
on the road for a few more years..............................................................
while they waited for the HOGS at Bombardier to actually build something!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Unfortunately, one cannot rely on polls as I believe that (some) people lie about who they vote for when asked as they feel it's no ones business. That likely is what happened in 2016 in the US. Would you tell a pollster who you were voting for? I don't know that I would - maybe, maybe not. I've never been asked and I would have to think about it before I did.
I LIKE MY BIG FONT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And my credibility is SOUND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LIE-berals KNOW THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Which is WHY they whine about punctuation and font.............................................
INSTEAD of discussing serious issues!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Such as..............................................
I HAVE ASKED HOW it benefits Canada to allow a CONVICTED DRUG DEALER.......................................
like Anthony Dooley........................................
and his common law wife Marcia Dooley - the WELFARE CHEAT.......................
to come to Canada and make COSTLY REFUGEE CLAIMS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Along the way.....................................
the NOT SO LOVING PARENTS BEAT 9 year old SON RANDAL TO DEATH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So we now have MILLIONS OF DOLLARS in murder trial costs PLUS the cost of jailing the two asshats for 25 years............................
THEN WE GET TO PAY TO DEPORT THEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AND NO LIE-beral has yet to explain WHY we would want a convicted drug dealer and his welfare cheat wife IN Canada at all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LILLEY: Trudeau pops in latest poll but bottom could be falling out
Brian Lilley
Published:
July 2, 2019
Updated:
July 2, 2019 5:00 AM EDT
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau waves while walking to a news conference about the government's decision on the Trans Mountain Expansion Project in Ottawa, June 18, 2019. REUTERS/Chris Wattie
You could call it the Ford Factor, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are back in the lead in vote-rich Ontario and the provincial government led by Doug Ford is part of the reason why.
The latest numbers from the DART/MARU Voice of Canada poll surveyed 1,512 adult Canadians on June 26 as part of Maru’s online panel. The numbers show a federal race that is up for grabs with Ontario being the big prize.
Yet despite improved numbers in the most populous province in the country, Trudeau and his Liberals suffer from poor numbers elsewhere, specifically on whether Canadians think he and his government deserve to be re-elected.
That is a key figure.
So, nationally the Conservatives sit at 37% support which is up three points from a poll on June 6. Trudeau’s Liberals have 32% nationally, up eight points while Jagmeet Singh’s NDP is at 17% support, up four points from earlier this month.
Most of Trudeau’s bounce upwards has come in Ontario where his party now leads the Conservatives 40% to 34%.
Pollster John Wright links the drop in support for Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives in Ontario, and Trudeau’s rise, to what he calls “a withering ad blitz” aimed at the region that tries to link Ford and Scheer.
The ads, some of which go way over the top in their false claims about Scheer and Ford, have been running non-stop in the Toronto area on radio and TV.
“The gateway to either a minority or majority government likely rests in a band of
voters that sits like a donut around the Greater Toronto Area known well as the ‘905’ area
code,” Wright said.
“This group of voters has shown no firm allegiance to any party, oscillating between the
Liberals and the Conservatives both federally and provincially.”
That doesn’t mean that Trudeau and his team can start popping bottles of Niagara sparkling wine any time soon.
Beyond the fact that the election day is still months away — on Oct. 21 — and that campaigns matter, Trudeau faces the problem of a lack of voter enthusiasm.
Across the country, just 24% agreed with the statement that “the Liberals under Justin Trudeau have done a good job and deserve to be re-elected.”
Even in Ontario, where 40% say they would cast a ballot for the Liberals, just 29% say Trudeau and his team deserve re-election.
According to Wright, who has more than 30 years experience in polling, the “deserve to be re-elected” question is one of the most important and predictive.
“Ontario’s Kathleen Wynne was showing 28% of the decided vote but 19% with the same deserve to be re-elected question six months before she got exactly 19% at the ballot box,” Wright said.
The Liberals won 80 seats last time out. Unless things change, they will lose several of those seats, perhaps many.
In the rest of the country, things don’t look good for Trudeau.
Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are set to give most of their seats to the Conservatives. In Alberta, 66% say they will vote Tory Blue, in Saskatchewan and Manitoba it is 50%.
British Columbia has the Conservatives leading the Liberals 37% to 34% which means the Liberals would lose some seats they gained in 2015. The two main parties are effectively tied in Quebec with the Liberals at 30% and Conservatives at 29%. If that holds until election day, that means big losses for Trudeau and big gains for Scheer.
The only place Liberals still hold a commanding lead in Atlantic Canada but the party is unlikely to take every seat like they did last time.
LILLEY: Best-selling author turns Twitter troll against politician’s kid
LILLEY: Carbon tax ruled constitutional in split and muddied decision
LILLEY: Trudeau plays politics with terrorism again
After the 2015 election, I stated boldly that Trudeau would get two terms as PM. Now, that is looking unlikely.
I wouldn’t write him or the Liberals off at this point but the diagnosis isn’t good.
The survey was conducted with randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of MARU/Blue’s Online panel and considered accurate to within 2.9%.
http://torontosun.com/news/national...n-latest-poll-but-bottom-could-be-falling-out
Brian Lilley
Published:
July 2, 2019
Updated:
July 2, 2019 5:00 AM EDT
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau waves while walking to a news conference about the government's decision on the Trans Mountain Expansion Project in Ottawa, June 18, 2019. REUTERS/Chris Wattie
You could call it the Ford Factor, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are back in the lead in vote-rich Ontario and the provincial government led by Doug Ford is part of the reason why.
The latest numbers from the DART/MARU Voice of Canada poll surveyed 1,512 adult Canadians on June 26 as part of Maru’s online panel. The numbers show a federal race that is up for grabs with Ontario being the big prize.
Yet despite improved numbers in the most populous province in the country, Trudeau and his Liberals suffer from poor numbers elsewhere, specifically on whether Canadians think he and his government deserve to be re-elected.
That is a key figure.
So, nationally the Conservatives sit at 37% support which is up three points from a poll on June 6. Trudeau’s Liberals have 32% nationally, up eight points while Jagmeet Singh’s NDP is at 17% support, up four points from earlier this month.
Most of Trudeau’s bounce upwards has come in Ontario where his party now leads the Conservatives 40% to 34%.
Pollster John Wright links the drop in support for Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives in Ontario, and Trudeau’s rise, to what he calls “a withering ad blitz” aimed at the region that tries to link Ford and Scheer.
The ads, some of which go way over the top in their false claims about Scheer and Ford, have been running non-stop in the Toronto area on radio and TV.
“The gateway to either a minority or majority government likely rests in a band of
voters that sits like a donut around the Greater Toronto Area known well as the ‘905’ area
code,” Wright said.
“This group of voters has shown no firm allegiance to any party, oscillating between the
Liberals and the Conservatives both federally and provincially.”
That doesn’t mean that Trudeau and his team can start popping bottles of Niagara sparkling wine any time soon.
Beyond the fact that the election day is still months away — on Oct. 21 — and that campaigns matter, Trudeau faces the problem of a lack of voter enthusiasm.
Across the country, just 24% agreed with the statement that “the Liberals under Justin Trudeau have done a good job and deserve to be re-elected.”
Even in Ontario, where 40% say they would cast a ballot for the Liberals, just 29% say Trudeau and his team deserve re-election.
According to Wright, who has more than 30 years experience in polling, the “deserve to be re-elected” question is one of the most important and predictive.
“Ontario’s Kathleen Wynne was showing 28% of the decided vote but 19% with the same deserve to be re-elected question six months before she got exactly 19% at the ballot box,” Wright said.
The Liberals won 80 seats last time out. Unless things change, they will lose several of those seats, perhaps many.
In the rest of the country, things don’t look good for Trudeau.
Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are set to give most of their seats to the Conservatives. In Alberta, 66% say they will vote Tory Blue, in Saskatchewan and Manitoba it is 50%.
British Columbia has the Conservatives leading the Liberals 37% to 34% which means the Liberals would lose some seats they gained in 2015. The two main parties are effectively tied in Quebec with the Liberals at 30% and Conservatives at 29%. If that holds until election day, that means big losses for Trudeau and big gains for Scheer.
The only place Liberals still hold a commanding lead in Atlantic Canada but the party is unlikely to take every seat like they did last time.
LILLEY: Best-selling author turns Twitter troll against politician’s kid
LILLEY: Carbon tax ruled constitutional in split and muddied decision
LILLEY: Trudeau plays politics with terrorism again
After the 2015 election, I stated boldly that Trudeau would get two terms as PM. Now, that is looking unlikely.
I wouldn’t write him or the Liberals off at this point but the diagnosis isn’t good.
The survey was conducted with randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of MARU/Blue’s Online panel and considered accurate to within 2.9%.
http://torontosun.com/news/national...n-latest-poll-but-bottom-could-be-falling-out
It's all in WHO and WHAT you ask...I don't think the people lie.
The pollsters and politicians do though. The exit poles have also been major indicators of voter fraud in the past.
MY assessment was that trudeau would be out because of scandal after one term, but the damage to Canada would be done.
Next: My guess is, we will get a financial depression beyond anything ever seen before, and a CONSERVATIVE government of attrition like we have never experienced before. The Liebarrels think they will get elected again after blaming the conservatives for the resulting CARNAGE after all the conservatives have mulrooneied themselves to permanent bases in Antarctica for the next couple of eons.
If you will look at the TSX, look at the high in May ( 16669 - Davinci 's golden ratio, which is a FLAG, is THE major secret society number ) and at the slide down since then. Soros and all his fellow vultures ( like the real guy behind "the big short") are now selling Canada short massively
( This Climate/ immigration/ freetrade/ thing is their business model), and next, we will look like Argentina or Venezuela or even eastern Germany under the secret society banker funded trained and directed Bolsheviks.
TSX:
https://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=^TSX&locale=en
The whole financial /political game is rigged.
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Ah yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The members of MARU/Blue`s "Online Panel" have decreed that Our idiot Boy has not yet lost his political career!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
HOW NICE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AND JUST WHO IS ON THE PANEL????????????????????????????????????
HOW DID THEY GET APPOINTED???????????????????????????????
Maru/Blue was formerly Angus Reid and has been restructured........................................
Maru makes note on its web site of HOW MUCH MONEY YOU CAN EARN by participating in PAID SURVEYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Should we ASK if it is easier to get on those paid surveys if you tell Maru spokespeople WHAT THEY WANT TO HEAR????????
Meaning THEY MAT SEEK OUT NICE COMMENTS ABOUT LIE-berals- and MAY PAY FOR SUCH AS WELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And shall we ask along the way if the amount of personal information Maru collects when you sign up .................................
WOULD AID THEM IN WEEDING OUT those who are HOSTILE TO LIE-berals?????????????????????????????????
Are we seeing yet ANOTHER INCARNATION of that six hundred million dollar LIE-beral SLUSH FUND that is being offered to Cdn
news media that LIE-berals "TRUST"????????????????????????????????????????????
How much FAKE NEWS WILL LIE-berals SPEW????????????????????????????????
if they think they can get away with it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
One has only to look at the VILE and SLEAZY Sheer Weakness ads put up by our civil service union HOGS - which CLAIM that Ford
has cut billions from Ontari-owe health care!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LIE-berals and their HOG ALLIES want us to believe the world will end if Ford freezes HOG WAGES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
HOGS are claiming we will DIE ALONE AND IN PAIN if the gravy train loses a single seat................................
And HOGS are claiming that SCHEER will make billions MORE IN IMAGINARY CUTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Cdns can NO LONGER BELIEVE ANYTHING that Cdn polling companies, spin doctors, "trusted Cdn news media" , LIE-beral
spokespeople or their HOG ALLIES CLAIM might be "good for us"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LIE-berals are FOCUSED on "GOOD FOR THEM" ONLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!