Could you possibly take up more space?
Maybe another 27 enters
LILLEY: New poll puts Greens high, Conservatives in-line for win
Brian Lilley
Published:
June 9, 2019
Updated:
June 9, 2019 5:00 PM EDT
Green Party leader Elizabeth MayErnest Doroszuk / Toronto Sun
A growing threat to Justin Trudeau’s re-election may come from a source few would have considered just a few months ago.
The latest poll from Campaign Research shows support for Elizabeth May and the Green Party on the rise, helping split the progressive vote three ways.
Nationally, the poll puts the Conservatives in the lead with 35% support, the Liberals at 32%, NDP at 14% and Greens at 12%
While May is still a long way from becoming PM, her party’s change in fortunes is coming at the expense of the NDP and Liberals.
As recently as February the Greens were polling at just 7%.
Maybe this is due to the Greens winning a recent by-election in British Columbia, doubling their number of seats to two!
Or it could be a spin-off from the May 5 provincial ballot in P.E.I. where the Greens threatened to form government.
While this is certainly great news for May, I wouldn’t be popping the carbon-neutral champagne just yet.
The poll shows that while the Greens are up, their vote — like those of the Liberals and NDP — could be fluid.
Asking voters for each party if their decision was locked-in, those supporting both the Greens and NDP were most interested in switching.
Just seven per cent said they were committed to either NDP or Green, and would not consider another party.
The news wasn’t much better for Trudeau’s Liberals.
Just 17% of voters say that Team Trudeau is the only vote they would consider, meaning as many as half of those backing the Liberals are open to switching.
For the Conservatives, one quarter of voters say the blue team is their only option, showing that they have the most dedicated voters at this time.
In news that may shock the chattering classes who still think Trudeau is a shoo-in for re-election, the Conservatives have the ability to reach the greatest number of voters at this time.
When asked which parties respondents would consider voting for, the Conservatives caught the eye of 41% while the the Liberals were hot on their heels at 40%.
Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer are tied in voter approval, with 32% saying the two main leaders are doing a good job — but Elizabeth May trumps them both with a 35% approval rating.
Thankfully the bar is low for May.
She’ll never become PM and doesn’t have to worry about what she would do to the country.
Despite her high approval rating, just 9% think she would make the best PM — which sadly for the NDP is still two points above leader Jagmeet Singh, who has only convinced 7% of respondents that should lead the country.
Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives remain in the lead nationally, and in many right-leaning regions of the country to even win a majority government.
That said, these latest numbers show the Conservatives and Liberals in a tight race for Ontario.
Part of that is surely the spillover effect from the Ontario budget handed down by Doug Ford’s PC government — the controversy of which has dominated the news for weeks and eroded Scheer’s support in the process.
The best thing the Conservatives can hope for is that the Greens remain high, the progressive vote remains split and Trudeau doesn’t find his path back to Sunny Ways.
http://campaignresearch.ca/single-post/Deadlock-continues-as-the-Green-Party-closes-in-on-the-NDP
http://torontosun.com/opinion/colum...uts-greens-high-conservatives-in-line-for-win
Follow up to Petro's post yesterday
Liberals, Trudeau hit new low but poll suggests surging Tory support is soft
Who got more bail out money?
The oil industry. Just like always.
Who got more bail out money?
The oil industry. Just like always.
Latest polls and projections
Updated on June 18, 2019 at 10:24am ET
Poll averages
CON
35.3%
down-0.7
LIB
29.9%
up+0.1
NDP
14.0%
down-1.1
GRN
11.6%
up+0.9
BQ
4.4%
up+0.1
PPC
2.8%
up+0.3
OTH
2.0%
up+0.5
Seat projections
CON 160
116-205
LIB 129
80-195
NDP 23
3-45
BQ 20
5-35
GRN 5
4-15
OTH 1
0-1
PPC0
01
Probability of winning
32% Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority
33% Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority
21% Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority
15% Probability of the Liberals winning a majority
I would say Bombardier and Air Canada has got the most wouldn't you?
Bigger!,!!!!!,!!!!!!!!!!!,!!!!!,!font?.?.????.?.?.?.?.?..?.?..?.?.more,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,credulity!,!!!!!!!!!!,!!!,!!!!!!!
It's all in WHO and WHAT you ask...I don't think the people lie.Unfortunately, one cannot rely on polls as I believe that (some) people lie about who they vote for when asked as they feel it's no ones business. That likely is what happened in 2016 in the US. Would you tell a pollster who you were voting for? I don't know that I would - maybe, maybe not. I've never been asked and I would have to think about it before I did.
LILLEY: Trudeau pops in latest poll but bottom could be falling out
Brian Lilley
Published:
July 2, 2019
Updated:
July 2, 2019 5:00 AM EDT
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau waves while walking to a news conference about the government's decision on the Trans Mountain Expansion Project in Ottawa, June 18, 2019. REUTERS/Chris Wattie
You could call it the Ford Factor, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are back in the lead in vote-rich Ontario and the provincial government led by Doug Ford is part of the reason why.
The latest numbers from the DART/MARU Voice of Canada poll surveyed 1,512 adult Canadians on June 26 as part of Maru’s online panel. The numbers show a federal race that is up for grabs with Ontario being the big prize.
Yet despite improved numbers in the most populous province in the country, Trudeau and his Liberals suffer from poor numbers elsewhere, specifically on whether Canadians think he and his government deserve to be re-elected.
That is a key figure.
So, nationally the Conservatives sit at 37% support which is up three points from a poll on June 6. Trudeau’s Liberals have 32% nationally, up eight points while Jagmeet Singh’s NDP is at 17% support, up four points from earlier this month.
Most of Trudeau’s bounce upwards has come in Ontario where his party now leads the Conservatives 40% to 34%.
Pollster John Wright links the drop in support for Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives in Ontario, and Trudeau’s rise, to what he calls “a withering ad blitz” aimed at the region that tries to link Ford and Scheer.
The ads, some of which go way over the top in their false claims about Scheer and Ford, have been running non-stop in the Toronto area on radio and TV.
“The gateway to either a minority or majority government likely rests in a band of
voters that sits like a donut around the Greater Toronto Area known well as the ‘905’ area
code,” Wright said.
“This group of voters has shown no firm allegiance to any party, oscillating between the
Liberals and the Conservatives both federally and provincially.”
That doesn’t mean that Trudeau and his team can start popping bottles of Niagara sparkling wine any time soon.
Beyond the fact that the election day is still months away — on Oct. 21 — and that campaigns matter, Trudeau faces the problem of a lack of voter enthusiasm.
Across the country, just 24% agreed with the statement that “the Liberals under Justin Trudeau have done a good job and deserve to be re-elected.”
Even in Ontario, where 40% say they would cast a ballot for the Liberals, just 29% say Trudeau and his team deserve re-election.
According to Wright, who has more than 30 years experience in polling, the “deserve to be re-elected” question is one of the most important and predictive.
“Ontario’s Kathleen Wynne was showing 28% of the decided vote but 19% with the same deserve to be re-elected question six months before she got exactly 19% at the ballot box,” Wright said.
The Liberals won 80 seats last time out. Unless things change, they will lose several of those seats, perhaps many.
In the rest of the country, things don’t look good for Trudeau.
Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are set to give most of their seats to the Conservatives. In Alberta, 66% say they will vote Tory Blue, in Saskatchewan and Manitoba it is 50%.
British Columbia has the Conservatives leading the Liberals 37% to 34% which means the Liberals would lose some seats they gained in 2015. The two main parties are effectively tied in Quebec with the Liberals at 30% and Conservatives at 29%. If that holds until election day, that means big losses for Trudeau and big gains for Scheer.
The only place Liberals still hold a commanding lead in Atlantic Canada but the party is unlikely to take every seat like they did last time.
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After the 2015 election, I stated boldly that Trudeau would get two terms as PM. Now, that is looking unlikely.
I wouldn’t write him or the Liberals off at this point but the diagnosis isn’t good.
The survey was conducted with randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of MARU/Blue’s Online panel and considered accurate to within 2.9%.
http://torontosun.com/news/national...n-latest-poll-but-bottom-could-be-falling-out