Weird non-Global Warming (more 'El Nino-ish') Question

[Ron in Regina]

With Australia melting this year, and California drying out this Winter, does
this lead to the Caribbean being less prone to Hurricanes perhaps this coming
Fall?

If this is a precursor to an El Nino event, then Western Central & South America
should flood, and more wind might cross Central America & Mexico which might
clash with the humid air coming east off of Africa creating wind sheer to disrupt
the vertical air columns in the Atlantic which help to create hurricanes.

If (....& a big "if" here...) that's the case, then traveling to the Caribbean in the late
Fall for Canadians during the tail end of hurricane season (= cheap!!!) might be a
good gamble.

There are lots of very bright people here on the Forum. Does it seem like I'm on
the right track?

 

[Cliffy]

If (....& a big "if" here...) that's the case, then traveling to the Caribbean in the late
Fall for Canadians during the tail end of hurricane season (= cheap!!!) might be a
good gamble.

There are lots of very bright people here on the Forum. Does it seem like I'm on
the right track?

Avoid Cuba. The place is going to hell in a hand basket since American tourists are allowed to go there now.

 

[Ron in Regina]

Avoid Cuba. The place is going to hell in a hand basket since American tourists are allowed to go there now.

Been to Cuba twice, & loved it! Once with Fidel at the reins, and the second
with his younger brother running things (the term 'younger' I use loosely).

I was thinking more along the lines of the Mayan Riviera, south of Cancun
'bout an hour or so again this time but keeping the options open.

 

[Tecumsehsbones]

El Nino is a lie propounded by the Obama administration to destroy America.

 

[petros]

ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014.
[FONT=verdana,arial]During December, ENSO-neutral persisted, as reflected by near-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The Nino indices in all of the regions were within ±0.5°C and showed only small changes during the month (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) decreased but remained above average (Fig. 3), following the passing of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave that had raised the sub-surface temperatures in November (Fig. 4). Also in December, slightly enhanced low-level trade winds were observed in the western tropical Pacific Ocean, while enhanced upper level westerly winds prevailed in portions of the eastern half of the basin. Convection was suppressed in the central equatorial Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect ENSO-neutral. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial]The majority of models predict that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) will persist into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014 (Fig. 6). While current forecast probabilities are still greatest for ENSO-neutral during summer, there is an increasing chance for the development of El Niño. The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast). [/FONT]

 

[Ron in Regina]

ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014....

Yeah, I've read similar, but with some indicators (Australia hot, California
burning, etc...) I assumed it might be like an Environment Canada prediction
like two years back when they predicted warmer than average & less snow
fall than average....& I moved more snow that winter than in my entire life
to that point.

Avoid Cuba. The place is going to hell in a hand basket since American tourists are allowed to go there now.

Americans tourists have always been going to Cuba (well, not always, but...), just
not directly to Cuba. An American flies (or drives, whatever) to either Canada or
Mexico first, and then proceeds onward to Cuba for their vacation...with the
reverse on the way back home.

Changes you might be seeing may be due to Raul Castro being in and Fidel Castro
being out.

El Nino is a lie propounded by the Obama administration to destroy America.

I guess I might have to wait a few months to see if the west coast of South America
& inward floods hard, & if warm water pushes up the west coast of North America
more so than most years. I just feels like one of a pair of weather dice has been
rolled, & the second feels promising (so far to me anyway in a wishful thinking
sort'a way) towards the less severe hurricane season for 2014.

I was just wondering if it was just me.



Lower rainfall predicted in eastern Australia as early signs point to El Nino return - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

 

[petros]

el Nada

 

[Ron in Regina]

....The majority of models predict that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) will persist into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014 (Fig. 6). While current forecast probabilities are still greatest for ENSO-neutral during summer, there is an increasing chance for the development of El Niño. The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

I guess I'm getting ahead of myself in asking about the Fall of 2014 & Winter
of 2015. I can only find one source going that far ahead, and he's basing some
models on Oak trees in the US, & he thinks it'll be an El Nino, but he's out on
his own at this point.

 

[Kreskin]

I heard a guy describe this year as El Nada. That the oceans were about as neutral as they could be in regard to weather patterns. No El Nino, no La Nina, no nothing. Don't know how true it is.

 

[Cliffy]

I heard a guy describe this year as El Nada. That the oceans were about as neutral as they could be in regard to weather patterns. No El Nino, no La Nina, no nothing. Don't know how true it is.

Calm before the storm? I think Momma's taking a break before she blows a gasket for all the ripping and tearing at her flesh.

 

[pgs]

Calm before the storm? I think Momma's taking a break before she blows a gasket for all the ripping and tearing at her flesh.

Really , is mother a sentient being ? Do you bow down before her or make sacrifice ?

 

[Ron in Regina]

Calm before the storm? I think Momma's taking a break before she blows a gasket for all the ripping and tearing at her flesh.

You think Momma's aiming for the Fall of 2014 or Winter of 2015 to blow?

I'm hoping for some nice Caribbean weather in hurricane season of late
2014 myself, and as a total layman just living with the weather, I'm
willing to take Nickel bets (that's my max) that this might just be another
El Nino coming up within the year.

 

[spaminator]

There are lots of very bright people here on the Forum.

so why are they posting here?

 

[MHz]

As far as I know if the current that comes from Africa is 82deg F or warmer there are going to be hurricanes no matter what time of year it is. Rates are cheaper during hurricane season, ... just sayin....

 

[Ron in Regina]

As far as I know if the current that comes from Africa is 82deg F or warmer there are going to be hurricanes no matter what time of year it is. Rates are cheaper during hurricane season, ... just sayin....

Was down that way not last September, but the one before.

 

[SLM]

With Australia melting this year, and California drying out this Winter, does
this lead to the Caribbean being less prone to Hurricanes perhaps this coming
Fall?

If this is a precursor to an El Nino event, then Western Central & South America
should flood, and more wind might cross Central America & Mexico which might
clash with the humid air coming east off of Africa creating wind sheer to disrupt
the vertical air columns in the Atlantic which help to create hurricanes.

If (....& a big "if" here...) that's the case, then traveling to the Caribbean in the late
Fall for Canadians during the tail end of hurricane season (= cheap!!!) might be a
good gamble.

There are lots of very bright people here on the Forum. Does it seem like I'm on
the right track?

It seems to me as if you're right smack dab in the middle of a Canadian winter and dreaming of a nice tropical beach to be planting yourself on, lol.

Personally, given our winters, I'd say gambling on a trip south that time of year, is always a good gamble.

 

[petros]

[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]

I guess I'm getting ahead of myself in asking about the Fall of 2014 & Winter
of 2015. I can only find one sourse going that far ahead, and he's basing some
models on Oak trees in the US, & he thinks it'll be an El Nino, but he's out on
his own at this point.

He is going out on a limb.

What's with the tracks in the sand? You tried sledding?

 

[Tonington]

What's with the tracks in the sand? You tried sledding?

Maybe practicing luge with lounge beach chairs?

 

[SLM]

What's with the tracks in the sand? You tried sledding?

He's on vacation! What do you expect him to lift the chairs???

 

[Tonington]

With Australia melting this year, and California drying out this Winter, does
this lead to the Caribbean being less prone to Hurricanes perhaps this coming Fall?

If you'd like to keep up to date with the hurricane season for 2014, there's a blog you can follow. Jeff Masters, former NOAA hurricane hunter, now a professor. He runs WeatherUnderground, and is a great resource for all things cyclone and weather related.

It's very early for hurricane projections, but if you follow his blog, you'll be in with the first to know group.