Steven Hawking's Tutor
Posts: 5,930 
May 8th, 2008, 12:24 PM
From alien abductions to rising sea levels, a new book reveals what's REALLY worth worrying about - and what's not
8th May 2008
Daily Mail
Who can forget poor old Corporal Jones in Dad's Army, with his constant refrain of 'Don't panic!'?
Now, a book called "Panicology" by two leading statisticians (Simon Briscoe and Hugh Aldersey-Williams) examines all those issues that generate anxiety - and advises which ones you really do need to fret about.
Their ratings work out the risk of an event as the likelihood of its happening multiplied by the impact if it does. For the panic rating, events are scored on how real the threat is, compared to how worried we have become.
• BEING HIT BY AN ASTEROID
Put April 13, 2029, in your diary. (Yes, it's going to be a Friday.)
According to the space agency Nasa, this is the day when the Earth is most likely to be struck by a civilisation-destroying asteroid.
Odds of one in 45 - an unprecedented level of risk - were quoted that we will be hit by the recently discovered 2004 MN4, a 400-metre diameter chunk of rock orbiting the Sun.
Small asteroids reach us all the time, but burn up in the Earth's atmosphere, where they can be seen as meteors or 'shooting stars'.
But what is the real risk of one being large enough to wipe out Earth? Not only would it have to be immense, it would also have to have enough energy to penetrate our atmosphere. Above all, its orbit must coincide with that of the Earth - which is most unlikely to happen.
As Douglas Adams pointed out in The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy, space is 'big, really big', so the chance is very small.
Finally, if we were on a collision course, it is more likely to fall into an unpopulated area of our planet than on a city such as London or Los Angeles.
PANIC RATING: 4 RISK RATING: 2
• CAR CRASHES
Moving around is intrinsically dangerous. Transport accidents - which include cars, bicycles, boats, trains, buses, vans and walking - are the leading cause of accidental deaths after falls. In England and Wales, 2,740 people died in such accidents during 2005, three-quarters of them men.
Yet when measured against the benefits, travel is pretty safe, and it's getting safer all the time. For example, in the past ten years, there have been no deaths on UK-registered airlines.
Buses and coaches were responsible for 0.3 deaths per billion kilometres travelled. The equivalent for boats was 0.3, rail 0.4, cars 2.8, bicycles 38, and walking 49.
In total, there are around 3,500 deaths annually on British roads - with motorcycles being 40 times more dangerous than cars. Of course, travel would be safer if drivers in cars were replaced with computer-controlled systems - but it's not clear yet whether we are ready for such a revolution on our roads.
PANIC RATING: 6 RISK RATING: 8
• PENSIONS TIMEBOMB
This phrase was coined to refer to the growing proportion of elderly in society whose pensions are paid for by an increasingly smaller working population.
There are fears the Government will be unable to afford generous pensions in the future, and company pension schemes are also under threat - the slump in world stock markets has caused the value of the assets on which pension funds are based to fall.
Economic trends strongly suggest many of us are unlikely to have a financially comfortable retirement, because we are either choosing not to save or are on low incomes that make saving unrealistic.
The prospect of poverty in old age remains very real for many.
PANIC RATING: 6 RISK RATING: 10
• MEETING AN ALIEN
In one of the most dramatic recent UFO sightings, several airline pilots reported seeing a grey saucer- shaped object hovering above Chicago airport. One notified the air traffic control tower, but the controllers saw nothing and there was no investigation.
The episode illustrated several traits common to the more plausible UFO sightings: apparently credible witnesses; reports not taken seriously by officialdom; and the overwhelming likelihood that the object was not an alien spacecraft but a local weather phenomenon or simply a hoax.
Nevertheless, the possibility that a report of a flying saucer may one day turn out to be a craft containing an alien intelligence elicits both excitement and fear.
Between 1947 and 1969, the U.S. military examined 12,618 UFO reports. Most turned out be America's own spy planes. Between 2001 and 2006, the British Ministry of Defence recorded 714 sightings. Of those, 12 merited further investigation. Of course, all this presumes that any alien civilisation actually wants to communicate with us.
PANIC RATING: 4 RISK RATING: 2
• HAVING A MENTAL BREAKDOWN
According to one professor: "It is a profound privilege to die from stress-related diseases."
What he meant was that modern Man has never had it so good. We have wealth and opportunities unimaginable only a generation ago, and the hard toil and diseases that led to Victorian graveyards being filled have all but gone.
Yet we are bedevilled by stress. One survey by the private health company Bupa suggests seven million Britons have been so anxious at some point that they have been to the doctor for medication.
Why the rise in stress? Many academics blame the rapid pace of change in society. But is it more to do with a booming stress industry that needs to exaggerate the problem? In any case, what is stress - is it overwork, acute boredom, or something more medical, such as depression or anxiety?
The good news is that you can increase your happiness by following simple steps that include having a laugh every day, counting your blessings, halving your television viewing, looking after something you've planted, exercising and talking to a friend.
PANIC RATING: 10 RISK RATING: 4
• BEING ATTACKED BY TERRORISTS
Fancy a holiday in Egypt to see the Pyramids? Well, the opening line of the Foreign Office's travel advice page will probably put you off. It says: "There is a high threat from terrorism.
Attacks can be indiscriminate and against civilian targets, including places frequented by foreigners."
There is similarly gloomy advice for other destinations such as Morocco, Turkey, Thailand and Indonesia.
But just how big is the threat? The official figures show that the Near East and South Asia are particularly affected by terrorism, accounting for 80 per cent of world attacks in 2005.
Nearly two-thirds of the non-combatant fatalities that year occurred in Iraq. Out of the estimated 500,000 people who die each year in England and Wales, only about a dozen do so as a result of terrorism.
Annual deaths from terrorism are lower than deaths from transport accidents (2,740), drowning (200), poisoning (900), and suicide (more than 3,000). More Americans have been killed by lightning than by terrorists.
So long as you stay away from the world's insurgent hotspots, the chances of being caught up in a terrorist event are minuscule.
PANIC RATING: 10 RISK RATING: 6
• RISING SEA LEVELS
With its white beaches, scattered palm trees and lightly clad inhabitants, the tiny country of Tuvalu in the South Pacific looks idyllic.
But there is trouble in paradise.
Tuvalu rises only five metres above sea level, and is in the front line of global climate change. While politicians wring their hands, the Tuvaluans wait for the salt water to wash over their crops.
But how real is the risk facing them, and us? Sea levels have risen by about 20 centimetres over the past century. They are rising on average by two to four millimetres a year. Why is it happening? Probably the biggest factor is thermal expansion of the ocean due to global warming. Then there is the more theatrical effect of melting Arctic and Antarctic ice.
Environmental experts have warned that some countries could be 'washed off the map'.
Here, East Anglia and the Thames Gateway are at risk. The UN panel on climate change predicts a rise in sea levels by 49 centimetres by 2100, but scientific uncertainty on this issue is very high. Put simply, we do not actually know yet what is happening. Meanwhile, the Tuvaluans have brokered a deal with New Zealand to resettle the country's entire population.
PANIC RATING: 8 RISK RATING: 6
•RADIATION POISONING
It could be straight from a James Bond movie plot. A former Russian spy, Alexander Litvinenko, is admitted to hospital with symptoms of poisoning after visiting a London sushi bar.
His condition deteriorates and he dies, but not before preparing a statement blaming the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, for his death.
A post mortem confirmed that Litvinenko had been killed by a large dose of radioactive polonium, likely to have been obtained with state sanction from a nuclear reactor. Within a week, 3,000 Britons had called the authorities, fearing they could have been contaminated along Litvinenko's trail.
In fact, polonium 210 emits alpha particles, which have high energy but very short range.
Why does radiation provoke such concern? It's because people fear silent, invisible radiation waves more than tangible dangers, such as crashing ocean waves.
So far, the risks from electromagnetic fields, computers, mobile phones, or radiation attacks have not been conclusively quantified, allowing us to succumb to panic of the unseen and unknown.
PANIC RATING: 8 RISK RATING: 4
• PANICOLOGY by Simon Briscoe and Hugh Aldersey-Williams is published by Viking at £18.99.
dailymail.co.uk
From alien abductions to rising sea levels, a new book reveals what's REALLY worth worrying about - and what's not
8th May 2008
Daily Mail
Who can forget poor old Corporal Jones in Dad's Army, with his constant refrain of 'Don't panic!'?
Now, a book called "Panicology" by two leading statisticians (Simon Briscoe and Hugh Aldersey-Williams) examines all those issues that generate anxiety - and advises which ones you really do need to fret about.
Their ratings work out the risk of an event as the likelihood of its happening multiplied by the impact if it does. For the panic rating, events are scored on how real the threat is, compared to how worried we have become.
• BEING HIT BY AN ASTEROID
Put April 13, 2029, in your diary. (Yes, it's going to be a Friday.)
According to the space agency Nasa, this is the day when the Earth is most likely to be struck by a civilisation-destroying asteroid.
Odds of one in 45 - an unprecedented level of risk - were quoted that we will be hit by the recently discovered 2004 MN4, a 400-metre diameter chunk of rock orbiting the Sun.
Small asteroids reach us all the time, but burn up in the Earth's atmosphere, where they can be seen as meteors or 'shooting stars'.
But what is the real risk of one being large enough to wipe out Earth? Not only would it have to be immense, it would also have to have enough energy to penetrate our atmosphere. Above all, its orbit must coincide with that of the Earth - which is most unlikely to happen.
As Douglas Adams pointed out in The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy, space is 'big, really big', so the chance is very small.
Finally, if we were on a collision course, it is more likely to fall into an unpopulated area of our planet than on a city such as London or Los Angeles.
PANIC RATING: 4 RISK RATING: 2
• CAR CRASHES
Moving around is intrinsically dangerous. Transport accidents - which include cars, bicycles, boats, trains, buses, vans and walking - are the leading cause of accidental deaths after falls. In England and Wales, 2,740 people died in such accidents during 2005, three-quarters of them men.
Yet when measured against the benefits, travel is pretty safe, and it's getting safer all the time. For example, in the past ten years, there have been no deaths on UK-registered airlines.
Buses and coaches were responsible for 0.3 deaths per billion kilometres travelled. The equivalent for boats was 0.3, rail 0.4, cars 2.8, bicycles 38, and walking 49.
In total, there are around 3,500 deaths annually on British roads - with motorcycles being 40 times more dangerous than cars. Of course, travel would be safer if drivers in cars were replaced with computer-controlled systems - but it's not clear yet whether we are ready for such a revolution on our roads.
PANIC RATING: 6 RISK RATING: 8
• PENSIONS TIMEBOMB
This phrase was coined to refer to the growing proportion of elderly in society whose pensions are paid for by an increasingly smaller working population.
There are fears the Government will be unable to afford generous pensions in the future, and company pension schemes are also under threat - the slump in world stock markets has caused the value of the assets on which pension funds are based to fall.
Economic trends strongly suggest many of us are unlikely to have a financially comfortable retirement, because we are either choosing not to save or are on low incomes that make saving unrealistic.
The prospect of poverty in old age remains very real for many.
PANIC RATING: 6 RISK RATING: 10
• MEETING AN ALIEN
In one of the most dramatic recent UFO sightings, several airline pilots reported seeing a grey saucer- shaped object hovering above Chicago airport. One notified the air traffic control tower, but the controllers saw nothing and there was no investigation.
The episode illustrated several traits common to the more plausible UFO sightings: apparently credible witnesses; reports not taken seriously by officialdom; and the overwhelming likelihood that the object was not an alien spacecraft but a local weather phenomenon or simply a hoax.
Nevertheless, the possibility that a report of a flying saucer may one day turn out to be a craft containing an alien intelligence elicits both excitement and fear.
Between 1947 and 1969, the U.S. military examined 12,618 UFO reports. Most turned out be America's own spy planes. Between 2001 and 2006, the British Ministry of Defence recorded 714 sightings. Of those, 12 merited further investigation. Of course, all this presumes that any alien civilisation actually wants to communicate with us.
PANIC RATING: 4 RISK RATING: 2
• HAVING A MENTAL BREAKDOWN
According to one professor: "It is a profound privilege to die from stress-related diseases."
What he meant was that modern Man has never had it so good. We have wealth and opportunities unimaginable only a generation ago, and the hard toil and diseases that led to Victorian graveyards being filled have all but gone.
Yet we are bedevilled by stress. One survey by the private health company Bupa suggests seven million Britons have been so anxious at some point that they have been to the doctor for medication.
Why the rise in stress? Many academics blame the rapid pace of change in society. But is it more to do with a booming stress industry that needs to exaggerate the problem? In any case, what is stress - is it overwork, acute boredom, or something more medical, such as depression or anxiety?
The good news is that you can increase your happiness by following simple steps that include having a laugh every day, counting your blessings, halving your television viewing, looking after something you've planted, exercising and talking to a friend.
PANIC RATING: 10 RISK RATING: 4
• BEING ATTACKED BY TERRORISTS
Fancy a holiday in Egypt to see the Pyramids? Well, the opening line of the Foreign Office's travel advice page will probably put you off. It says: "There is a high threat from terrorism.
Attacks can be indiscriminate and against civilian targets, including places frequented by foreigners."
There is similarly gloomy advice for other destinations such as Morocco, Turkey, Thailand and Indonesia.
But just how big is the threat? The official figures show that the Near East and South Asia are particularly affected by terrorism, accounting for 80 per cent of world attacks in 2005.
Nearly two-thirds of the non-combatant fatalities that year occurred in Iraq. Out of the estimated 500,000 people who die each year in England and Wales, only about a dozen do so as a result of terrorism.
Annual deaths from terrorism are lower than deaths from transport accidents (2,740), drowning (200), poisoning (900), and suicide (more than 3,000). More Americans have been killed by lightning than by terrorists.
So long as you stay away from the world's insurgent hotspots, the chances of being caught up in a terrorist event are minuscule.
PANIC RATING: 10 RISK RATING: 6
• RISING SEA LEVELS
With its white beaches, scattered palm trees and lightly clad inhabitants, the tiny country of Tuvalu in the South Pacific looks idyllic.
But there is trouble in paradise.
Tuvalu rises only five metres above sea level, and is in the front line of global climate change. While politicians wring their hands, the Tuvaluans wait for the salt water to wash over their crops.
But how real is the risk facing them, and us? Sea levels have risen by about 20 centimetres over the past century. They are rising on average by two to four millimetres a year. Why is it happening? Probably the biggest factor is thermal expansion of the ocean due to global warming. Then there is the more theatrical effect of melting Arctic and Antarctic ice.
Environmental experts have warned that some countries could be 'washed off the map'.
Here, East Anglia and the Thames Gateway are at risk. The UN panel on climate change predicts a rise in sea levels by 49 centimetres by 2100, but scientific uncertainty on this issue is very high. Put simply, we do not actually know yet what is happening. Meanwhile, the Tuvaluans have brokered a deal with New Zealand to resettle the country's entire population.
PANIC RATING: 8 RISK RATING: 6
•RADIATION POISONING
It could be straight from a James Bond movie plot. A former Russian spy, Alexander Litvinenko, is admitted to hospital with symptoms of poisoning after visiting a London sushi bar.
His condition deteriorates and he dies, but not before preparing a statement blaming the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, for his death.
A post mortem confirmed that Litvinenko had been killed by a large dose of radioactive polonium, likely to have been obtained with state sanction from a nuclear reactor. Within a week, 3,000 Britons had called the authorities, fearing they could have been contaminated along Litvinenko's trail.
In fact, polonium 210 emits alpha particles, which have high energy but very short range.
Why does radiation provoke such concern? It's because people fear silent, invisible radiation waves more than tangible dangers, such as crashing ocean waves.
So far, the risks from electromagnetic fields, computers, mobile phones, or radiation attacks have not been conclusively quantified, allowing us to succumb to panic of the unseen and unknown.
PANIC RATING: 8 RISK RATING: 4
• PANICOLOGY by Simon Briscoe and Hugh Aldersey-Williams is published by Viking at £18.99.
dailymail.co.uk
Super Genius
Posts: 1,061
Location: BC
Location: BC
May 8th, 2008, 01:02 PM
It's too bad they didn't work out the probabilities of said event effecting us as individuals. Instead what they have given us is entirely unusable. For example:
I agree the panic rating for a terrorist attack is probably around 10 for most uninformed people but the actual risk isn't anywhere near 6. To be 6 would mean 60% of us are going to be attacked by terrorists - that's absurd! My guess is that the risk is closer to .00001
Being hit by an asteroid: I sincerely doubt 1 in 5 of us is going to be hit by one!
Cute, fun, also useless.
It's too bad they didn't work out the probabilities of said event effecting us as individuals. Instead what they have given us is entirely unusable. For example:
I agree the panic rating for a terrorist attack is probably around 10 for most uninformed people but the actual risk isn't anywhere near 6. To be 6 would mean 60% of us are going to be attacked by terrorists - that's absurd! My guess is that the risk is closer to .00001
Being hit by an asteroid: I sincerely doubt 1 in 5 of us is going to be hit by one!
Cute, fun, also useless.
May 8th, 2008, 01:54 PM
Did you miss what the risk factor actually means Scotty? A risk factor of 6 doesn't mean that 60% will be affected, it means that the probability of the event, and the impact of the event, place it on a scale. A 9 would be more devastating than a 6, but not necessarily more likely.
ETA: Here's a nice graphic I found, that fits well with this articles premise for risk factor assessment.
Did you miss what the risk factor actually means Scotty? A risk factor of 6 doesn't mean that 60% will be affected, it means that the probability of the event, and the impact of the event, place it on a scale. A 9 would be more devastating than a 6, but not necessarily more likely.
Quote:
As to the Asteroid probability, the Daily Mail ought to do better reporting. There was a splash in the astronomical community recently, where a school kid from Germany investigated the probability, and I believe concluded that for 2004 MN4, the probability of hitting Earth was 1 in 450. The kid was off by orders of magnitude, which isn't hard to do considering the assumptions built in to any calculated probability. He calculated the odds of the asteroid hitting a orbiting satellite, and then bouncing into a path towards Earth. The mass of the asteroid is so large (2.1 E+10 kg) that bouncing off a satellite is at the far end of being possible. Anyways, when I go to NASA's page, I see the probability is 2.2 E-5, or one in 45,454. Their ratings work out the risk of an event as the likelihood of its happening multiplied by the impact if it does.
ETA: Here's a nice graphic I found, that fits well with this articles premise for risk factor assessment.
Super Genius
Posts: 1,061
Location: BC
Location: BC
May 8th, 2008, 02:38 PM
Quoting Tonington
I did, thanks.
Did you miss what the risk factor actually means Scotty? A risk factor of 6 doesn't mean that 60% will be affected, it means that the probability of the event, and the impact of the event, place it on a scale. A 9 would be more devastating than a 6, but not necessarily more likely.
