Loonie passes 97 U.S. cents

B00Mer

Keep Calm and Carry On
Sep 6, 2008
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The Canadian dollar extended gains to hit a new one-year high against the U.S. dollar as oil prices surged and in the wake of strong Canadian jobs data late last week.


The Canadian dollar rose has high as 97.39 U.S. cents early Tuesday morning, and was trading around 97.15 U.S. cents at 8:10 a.m.


The Canadian dollar continued to get a boost from strong demand for oil and other commodities, as well as Canada's relatively robust economy compared to its still-ailing neighbour to the south.


As long as U.S. policymakers keep interest rates near zero, the Canadian dollar and many other currencies such as the euro are likely to keep on their upward trajectory, with the loonie possibly reaching parity with its U.S. counterpart by the end of the year, currency analysts said.


"The rebound in commodity prices in general has been really helpful to the Canadian dollar," said Andrew Wilkinson, senior analyst at Interactive Brokers Group in Greenwich, Connecticut. "It's also benefited from U.S. dollar weakness based on the fact that U.S. policymakers have rolled out a red carpet of easy money as far as the eye can see."


With benchmark interest rates at close to zero in the United States, investors have turned to currencies in countries with stronger yields, including Canada which is only marginally better.


Although trade in global currency markets was lacklustre with holidays in Canada, the United States and Japan, the Canadian dollar continued to get a boost from strong demand for oil and other commodities, as well as Canada's relatively robust economy compared to its still-ailing neighbour to the south.


As long as U.S. policymakers keep interest rates near zero, the Canadian dollar and many other currencies such as the euro are likely to keep on their upward trajectory, with the loonie possibly reaching parity with its U.S. counterpart by the end of the year, currency analysts said.


"The rebound in commodity prices in general has been really helpful to the Canadian dollar," said Andrew Wilkinson, senior analyst at Interactive Brokers Group in Greenwich, Connecticut. "It's also benefited from U.S. dollar weakness based on the fact that U.S. policymakers have rolled out a red carpet of easy money as far as the eye can see."


With benchmark interest rates at close to zero in the United States, investors have turned to currencies in countries with stronger yields, including Canada which is only marginally better.


With U.S. policymakers continuing to grapple with rising unemployment, they aren't expected to raise interest rates. That means a rate hike might not come before the second half of next year and perhaps not before 2011, analysts said.


Canada, on the other hand, posted better-than-expected jobs data last week, an improvement that could lead the country to raise interest rates much sooner than the U.S. Though any move to raise interest rates ahead of the U.S. could boost the loonie even further and scorch Canada's export oriented economy.


Australia already has raised interest rates and Norway is expected to follow suit as both countries benefit from rising commodity prices.


After reaching a high of 96.92 U.S. cents early on Monday, the Canadian dollar hovered around U.S. 96.62 by 6 p.m. eastern time Monday evening. Powered by surging commodity prices back in September 2007, the loonie reached par with the U.S. dollar for the first time in three decades. It was worth more than $1.10 less than a couple months later. The currency fell back against the U.S. dollar as the financial crisis deepened and commodity prices dropped.


Although there has been much speculation lately that the U.S. dollar is losing its status as a worldwide reserve currency, many currency analysts don't buy the notion.


"Remember esperanto? People thought that was going to be a world language," said Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist for Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. "I think the dollar and the U.S. empire are going to prove themselves a lot more durable."


The world also lacks a suitable substitute for a global reserve currency right now, analysts said.


"There is just no other money market in the world that is as liquid as the United States," said Axel Merk, portfolio manager of the Merk Hard Currency Fund in San Francisco. "Canada and the euro zone are not as deep and as liquid. That doesn't mean it won't happen over time." policymakers continuing to grapple with rising unemployment, they aren't expected to raise interest rates. That means a rate hike might not come before the second half of next year and perhaps not before 2011, analysts said.


Canada, on the other hand, posted better-than-expected jobs data last week, an improvement that could lead the country to raise interest rates much sooner than the United States. Though any move to raise interest rates ahead of the United States could boost the loonie even further and scorch Canada's export oriented economy.


Australia already has raised interest rates and Norway is expected to follow suit as both countries benefit from rising commodity prices.


Powered by surging commodity prices back in September 2007, the loonie reached par with the U.S. dollar for the first time in three decades. It was worth more than US$1.10 less than a couple months later. The currency fell back against the U.S. dollar as the financial crisis deepened and commodity prices dropped.

Although there has been much speculation lately that the U.S. dollar is losing its status as a worldwide reserve currency, many currency analysts don't buy the notion.


"Remember esperanto? People thought that was going to be a world language," said Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist for Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. "I think the dollar and the U.S. empire are going to prove themselves a lot more durable."


The world also lacks a suitable substitute for a global reserve currency right now, analysts said.


"There is just no other money market in the world that is as liquid as the United States," said Axel Merk, portfolio manager of the Merk Hard Currency Fund in San Francisco. "Canada and the euro zone are not as deep and as liquid. That doesn't mean it won't happen over time."

 

kryptic

- gone insane -
Sep 24, 2009
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i love the 'better than expected' argument... i wonder if anyone is expecting the worst than expected, in the coming months, when all the road construction crews get shut down for winter?

The dollar going up is a good thing, just makes land in another country that much cheaper ... warm climate here i come...
 

Spade

Ace Poster
Nov 18, 2008
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As of 13:00 EDT, $1.00 CDN = S0.9700 US.

America cannot print trillions of dollars to "buy" its way out of a recession for which its financial institutions were responsible without spooking currency traders, foreign holders of American currency, and nations who trade with the US using American currency as a medium.
 

EagleSmack

Hall of Fame Member
Feb 16, 2005
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As of 13:00 EDT, $1.00 CDN = S0.9700 US.

America cannot print trillions of dollars to "buy" its way out of a recession for which its financial institutions were responsible without spooking currency traders, foreign holders of American currency, and nations who trade with the US using American currency as a medium.

I agree. But we sure are doing it aren't we Cuz.
 
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SirJosephPorter

Time Out
Nov 7, 2008
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Most experts expect Canadian dollar to hit par with US dollar and go higher. That cannot be good for Canadian economy. With a strong currency, exports become expensive and tourism becomes expensive.

There is really not much of an upside to a strong currency, except maybe a sense of national pride. Weak currency on the other hand has many advantages (provided there is no inflation).

When Canadian dollar was 60 cents, exports were cheaper, tourists found it cheaper to come to Canada. And we had no inflation. So that really was the best of all the worlds, except perhaps a blow to the Canadian ego (for having a weak currency). But in economic terms, strong currency is not a good thing.
 

Spade

Ace Poster
Nov 18, 2008
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The American national debt a few seconds ago was estimated at $11,806,727,132,275.

Yep, that's almost 12 trillion dollars. That's $40 000 for every man, woman, and bairn.

That would be equivalent to a debt in Canada of $1.2 trillion. That is roughly 2.4 times as large as Canada's. Seems wars, tax cuts, and bank malfeasance belong in the same handcart.
 

VanIsle

Always thinking
Nov 12, 2008
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i love the 'better than expected' argument... i wonder if anyone is expecting the worst than expected, in the coming months, when all the road construction crews get shut down for winter?

The dollar going up is a good thing, just makes land in another country that much cheaper ... warm climate here i come...
Off you go then. Road construction crews shut down for the winter in many provinces anyway. Construction period shuts down during the worst months of winter. In most places it's just a part of life at this time of the year. I just happen to live in a place where it's rare for any of those types of projects shut down for the weather all year long.
 

AnnaG

Hall of Fame Member
Jul 5, 2009
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"Loonie passes 97 U.S. cents"

Good time to buy imported stuff like Czech planes for the Snowbird squadron.
I was looking around at Canadian sources for a replacement battery pack for my Sony Vaio, cheapest I could find is $235. Same battery pack $158 from the US. WOOT!
 

VanIsle

Always thinking
Nov 12, 2008
7,046
43
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"Loonie passes 97 U.S. cents"

Good time to buy imported stuff like Czech planes for the Snowbird squadron.
I was looking around at Canadian sources for a replacement battery pack for my Sony Vaio, cheapest I could find is $235. Same battery pack $158 from the US. WOOT!
That's the general fear right now - folks heading south for Christmas shopping. It will hurt our economy big time. How tempting it is though. Think I'll just buy some US money right now and then trade it in when the loonie goes down again.
 

SirJosephPorter

Time Out
Nov 7, 2008
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That's the general fear right now - folks heading south for Christmas shopping. It will hurt our economy big time. How tempting it is though. Think I'll just buy some US money right now and then trade it in when the loonie goes down again.

We don't know when that will be, VanIsle, the loonie may be here to stay.
 

AnnaG

Hall of Fame Member
Jul 5, 2009
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That's the general fear right now - folks heading south for Christmas shopping. It will hurt our economy big time. How tempting it is though. Think I'll just buy some US money right now and then trade it in when the loonie goes down again.
As far as I am concerned everyone's taking a beating now, except for the bigshots getting bonuses for screwing up the economy. We buy enough local stuff that it balances out anyway, because we don't buy import very often. But the batteries aren't made here anyway, so if we need to buy import, we won't be spending the most money we can on it.
 

Kreskin

Doctor of Thinkology
Feb 23, 2006
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As far as I am concerned everyone's taking a beating now, except for the bigshots getting bonuses for screwing up the economy. We buy enough local stuff that it balances out anyway, because we don't buy import very often. But the batteries aren't made here anyway, so if we need to buy import, we won't be spending the most money we can on it.

Why do you need batteries by the truckload? Very curious..:lol: