Global Population Growth Estimate...

[Ron in Regina]

World population projected to reach 7 billion in 2011

Source: World population projected to reach 7 billion in 2011 - CNN.com

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The world's population is forecast to hit 7 billion in 2011,
the vast majority of its growth coming in developing and, in many cases, the
poorest nations, a report released Wednesday said.

A staggering 97 percent of global growth over the next 40 years will happen in
Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, according to the Population
Reference Bureau's 2009 World Population Data Sheet.

"The great bulk of today's 1.2 billion youth -- nearly 90 percent -- are in developing
countries," said Carl Haub, a co-author of the report. Eight in 10 of those youth
live in Africa and Asia.

"During the next few decades, these young people will most likely continue the
current trend of moving from rural areas to cities in search of education and
training opportunities, gainful employment, and adequate health care," Haub
continued, calling it one of the major social questions of the next few decades.

In the developed world, the United States and Canada will account for most of the
growth -- half from immigration and half from a natural increase in the population
-- births minus deaths, according to the report.

High fertility rates and a young population base in the developing world will fuel
most of the growth, especially in Africa, where women often give birth to six or
seven children over a lifetime, the report says. The number is about two in the
United States and 1.5 in Canada.

A stark contrast can be drawn between Uganda and Canada, which currently have
about 34 million and 31 million residents, respectively. By 2050, Canada's population
is projected to be 42 million, while Uganda's is expected to soar to 96 million, more
than tripling.

"Even with declining fertility rates in many countries, world population is still
growing at a rapid rate," said Bill Butz, president of the bureau. "The increase
from 6 billion to 7 billion is likely to take 12 years, as did the increase from 5 billion
to 6 billion. Both events are unprecedented in world history."

By 2050, India is projected to be the world's most populous nation at 1.7 billion,
overtaking current leader China, which is forecast to hit 1.4 billion. The United
States is expected to reach 439 million for No. 3 on the list.

 

[Stretch]

back in 2000, we "celebrated" the yr of 6 billion.......thats an increase of 1 billion in 11yrs, or close to 250,000 per day, or about 10,378 per hour, or 173 per minute, or almost 3 per second......................... you can see the need for the coming population reduction measures now, eh?

 

[L Gilbert]

Humans are such odd critters. Lots can't find enough food to stay healthy, yet we keep adding to the population. Makes about as much sense as believing in things there isn't any evidence for.

 

[SirJosephPorter]

By 2050, India is projected to be the world's most populous nation at 1.7 billion, overtaking current leader China, which is forecast to hit 1.4 billion. The United States is expected to reach 439 million for No. 3 on the list.

Ron, I remember reading that 50% of India’s population is under 25 years old, so it doesn’t surprise me that India will overtake China in a short order. I remember when India reached one billion, I read an article in Times of India. The mood was not at all celebratory, it was somber, reflective.

The huge population may yet prove to be India’s undoing.

 

[SirJosephPorter]

Humans are such odd critters. Lots can't find enough food to stay healthy, yet we keep adding to the population. Makes about as much sense as believing in things there isn't any evidence for.

There are several reasons for that. One is of course, the innate desire to reproduce. Another is that family planning, contraception is frowned upon in many third world countries. And Catholic Church does not help matters any in countries such as Philippines, or Christians in Africa when it declares its adamant, uncompromising opposition to contraception.

Another reason is a desire to have a son. We know an Indian couple, the wife is one of six sisters. She told me that her parents kept taking a chance for a son. They very much wanted a son, but kept on getting daughter after daughter. That also adds to the population.

Another reason is that in developing counties, where most of the people exist by subsistence farming, it is an advantage to have many sons. Sons help the father with farming, when they get married, they bring in dowry, especially in places like India or Pakistan.

Daughters are not wanted, but are considered necessary evil in order to get sons (and killing of daughters, abortion to get rid of daughter etc. is quite common in the third world countries).

There are many factors which contribute to the population increase in developing countries.

 

[L Gilbert]

By 2050, India is projected to be the world's most populous nation at 1.7 billion, overtaking current leader China, which is forecast to hit 1.4 billion. The United States is expected to reach 439 million for No. 3 on the list.

Ron, I remember reading that 50% of India’s population is under 25 years old, so it doesn’t surprise me that India will overtake China in a short order. I remember when India reached one billion, I read an article in Times of India. The mood was not at all celebratory, it was somber, reflective.

The huge population may yet prove to be India’s undoing.

Think a little further. Overpopulation will be the entire race's undoing. (Race, as in homo sapiens).

 

[petros]

They (Indians) make a up a huge portion of the middle east construction crews sending good money home.

As long as there is oil there will be construction in the mid east especially with all the demolition happening at the same time.

 

[FiveParadox]

Re: Issue of Overpopulation

The unfortunate truth of the situation is that despite the ruthless manner in which it was implemented, I can understand the rationale, the fear and the desperation that supported the creation of the Family Planning Policy (or the “One Child Policy”) of the People’s Republic of China. Our western nations all lay claim to being so much more civil, and accuse the institutions of Chinese government of being barbaric—but what would our own Western governments do under the same circumstances? Is there such a thing as a more civil solution to the issue of overpopulation than the severe strategy that has been taken by our Asian neighbour? I wonder what strategies the Republic of India may decide to take, once the Indian population expands beyond a level that the republic’s resources can support?

Is there such a thing as an “appropriate” strategy to curb overpopulation?

 

[L Gilbert]

The unfortunate truth of the situation is that despite the ruthless manner in which it was implemented, I can understand the rationale, the fear and the desperation that supported the creation of the Family Planning Policy (or the “One Child Policy”) of the People’s Republic of China. Our western nations all lay claim to being so much more civil, and accuse the institutions of Chinese government of being barbaric—but what would our own Western governments do under the same circumstances? Is there such a thing as a more civil solution to the issue of overpopulation than the severe strategy that has been taken by our Asian neighbour? I wonder what strategies the Republic of India may decide to take, once the Indian population expands beyond a level that the republic’s resources can support?

Is there such a thing as an “appropriate” strategy to curb overpopulation?

Well, yeah. What is the cause of overpopulation? Could it be overbreeding? Could the solution possibly be to not breed so much?
We had two kids, but we both have family members that bred like Mormons (well 5 or 6 kids per family anyway). We let them know what we think about the issue, but I doubt it will sink in until something drastic is done like China's 1 kid per couple plan.

 

[Unforgiven]

back in 2000, we "celebrated" the yr of 6 billion.......thats an increase of 1 billion in 11yrs, or close to 250,000 per day, or about 10,378 per hour, or 173 per minute, or almost 3 per second......................... you can see the need for the coming population reduction measures now, eh?

I think we top out at 9 billion and the food crisis will cause the correction in population. What I am not clear on is, with a mass extinction of a portion of the population, will those left be able to deal with the disposal of the bodies or will that cause a domino effect by the rise of decease and the failure of infrastructure due to the loss of so much knowledge and those who run the machines?

 

[FiveParadox]

Well, yeah. What is the cause of overpopulation? Could it be overbreeding? Could the solution possibly be to not breed so much?

Obviously it is, but that isn’t a national policy: “Don’t breed so much.”

How do you implement such a policy in a way that the people can accept?

 

[L Gilbert]

Obviously it is, but that isn’t a national policy: “Don’t breed so much.”

How do you implement such a policy in a way that the people can accept?

lol How did China do it? I think all we'd have to do is add a little education and use a little diplomacy. Not sure about the States, but I think Canadians would clue in eventually. That's assuming we can elect people who think that huge population is only cool for the economy and the gov't wallet.

 

[Tonington]

Population growth levels out as societies become more affluent. It's a standard population model called the Demographic Transition Model (DTM). As a society becomes more affluent, and typically where equality becomes the norm, population growth levels out. In some European countries we see the change is negative, and has been for some time now.

Women typically have children later in life, as pursuing careers becomes easier to do.

Fertility rates drop, as families have better security, and don't require large amounts of offspring to care for the parents, or raise the food on a subsistence lifestyle.

The infant mortality rate drops, and life expectancy climbs as medical treatment and availability become more comprehensive and easier to procure.

These are all hallmarks of the "first world" nations.

So, the most palatable option, and indeed the option most nations strive for is to become more affluent. They look to the rich nations for what the standards are. But, what they end up emulating more than anything else is the insatiable desire for growth, and rampant consumerism that is the hallmark of the West. This is the image that pervades from our culture.

This leads to a whole other set of problems. Currently, the population we have on Earth is using up an amount of natural resources that could only be sustained in the long term by about 1.25 Earth's, and that's if we stopped the positive growth of resource usage right now...

I think that the hard part is getting the world, the whole world, to realize and accept that we already have set our goals to high, for what a fulfilling life should be. I don't mean that the developing world should give up their quest to realize stage 5 of the DTM. What I do think needs to happen, is that we can no longer strive for growth simply for the sake of growth...

That is the ideology of a cancer cell.

Call me a hippy now...but this is the simple matter of what we have, what we want, and what we should be satisfied with. Maybe we need to sacrifice some growth, and maximize our efficiencies. Maybe we need to sacrifice some growth, and improve living conditions for the poorest.

If we wait until everyone can afford a 2750 square foot house, with two cars in the garage, and all the bells and whistles, there won't be a lot of "stuff" left to even try to fix the problem.

 

[SirJosephPorter]

I don’t think much of DTM, Tonington; I think that model has been discredited. There are affluent countries, such as Saudi Arabia, where birth rate is quite high. In fact, I think in all of oil rich Middle East countries the birth rate is high. All that wealth did not cause them to practice family planning.

I remember seeing another model, which correlated lower birth rate with female emancipation, and that makes much more sense. In countries like Saudi Arabia, women are treated little better than animals, they have no rights, no power, man makes all the decisions in a marriage. So the man decides whether to practice family planning. He has no incentive to keep number of children in check.

However, if a woman is educated, if she is working outside home, she has plenty of incentive to keep the number of children down, it is in her interest to do so. And with female emancipation, she has some say about what goes on in the family, in Islamic counties, she has none.

In fact as I recall, they did try DTM in countries like India, where they gave people information about contraception and urged the men to practice family planning. It was an abject failure. But when they empowered women, gave them small loans to start their own businesses, provided for their education, that produced results. Being independent, educated also gives her the courage to speak out for her interests.

My Indian friends tell me that in India these days middle classes (where a woman usually works outside home); they typically have one or two children per couple. In the villages, with all the information about contraceptives available, birth rate is still very high, especially where men have all the say about family planning.

I think it is the female emancipation model that has proved successful, rather than DTM.

 

[SirJosephPorter]

Here is some information about the female emancipation model, Tonington, as applied to Europe.

http://www.jstor.org/pss/1847657

 

[JLM]

World population projected to reach 7 billion in 2011

Source: World population projected to reach 7 billion in 2011 - CNN.com

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The world's population is forecast to hit 7 billion in 2011,
the vast majority of its growth coming in developing and, in many cases, the
poorest nations, a report released Wednesday said.

A staggering 97 percent of global growth over the next 40 years will happen in
Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, according to the Population
Reference Bureau's 2009 World Population Data Sheet.



"The great bulk of today's 1.2 billion youth -- nearly 90 percent -- are in developing
countries," said Carl Haub, a co-author of the report. Eight in 10 of those youth
live in Africa and Asia.

"During the next few decades, these young people will most likely continue the
current trend of moving from rural areas to cities in search of education and
training opportunities, gainful employment, and adequate health care," Haub
continued, calling it one of the major social questions of the next few decades.

In the developed world, the United States and Canada will account for most of the
growth -- half from immigration and half from a natural increase in the population
-- births minus deaths, according to the report.

High fertility rates and a young population base in the developing world will fuel
most of the growth, especially in Africa, where women often give birth to six or
seven children over a lifetime, the report says. The number is about two in the
United States and 1.5 in Canada.

A stark contrast can be drawn between Uganda and Canada, which currently have
about 34 million and 31 million residents, respectively. By 2050, Canada's population
is projected to be 42 million, while Uganda's is expected to soar to 96 million, more
than tripling.

"Even with declining fertility rates in many countries, world population is still
growing at a rapid rate," said Bill Butz, president of the bureau. "The increase
from 6 billion to 7 billion is likely to take 12 years, as did the increase from 5 billion
to 6 billion. Both events are unprecedented in world history."

By 2050, India is projected to be the world's most populous nation at 1.7 billion,
overtaking current leader China, which is forecast to hit 1.4 billion. The United
States is expected to reach 439 million for No. 3 on the list.

I doubt if there's anything to worry about, another "Bubonic" plague or perhaps something as simple as starvation will stem the world population. Another possibility is everyone will turn homosexual. Doesn't matter what man does, he can't beat Mother Nature. If nothing else, eventually the soil will become depleted. We should plan on being here for a good time, not a long time.

 

[Liberalman]

Because of abortion Canada and America will cease to exist because of immigration.

Population rules

 

[Cliffy]

Because of abortion Canada and America will cease to exist because of immigration.

Population rules

Humans are spreading over the planet like a fungus. Momma's a big girl. She can and will deal with us at her pleasure. Don't plan on liking it.

 

[SirJosephPorter]

Because of abortion Canada and America will cease to exist because of immigration.

Population rules

Abortion will make Canada and USA will cease to exist? Then who needs USA and Canada? Any country that cannot give equal rights to women, cannot grant basic freedoms to women is probably better off ceasing to exist.

 

[JLM]

Abortion will make Canada and USA will cease to exist? Then who needs USA and Canada? Any country that cannot give equal rights to women, cannot grant basic freedoms to women is probably better off ceasing to exist.

What rights do men have in Canada that women do not?