Quote: Originally Posted by SirJosephPorter
I don’t think much of DTM, Tonington; I think that model has been discredited.
It's a model. There is no such thing as a perfect model. DTM is a very good model which can explain a shifting demography of a country (given certain assumptions about the population) from high birth rates/death rates and low life expectancy, to low birth rates/low death rates and higher life expectancy.
There are affluent countries, such as Saudi Arabia, where birth rate is quite high. In fact, I think in all of oil rich Middle East countries the birth rate is high. All that wealth did not cause them to practice family planning.
Well, that is one caveat for the DTM. It was based on changes seen in Europe, and the model assumes that equality improves with time. It doesn't do well at all where society is not progressive, or where there are forms of strife. Because then you aren't really dealing with demographic changes, as much as with other causes (war, drought, theocracy, etc.)
I remember seeing another model, which correlated lower birth rate with female emancipation, and that makes much more sense. In countries like Saudi Arabia, women are treated little better than animals, they have no rights, no power, man makes all the decisions in a marriage. So the man decides whether to practice family planning. He has no incentive to keep number of children in check.
How can you have a correlation, or model for female emancipation? That notion is not something that you can discretely quantize. You can have a birth rate of decimal places, but how can you have a female emancipation of say 1.21 versus 1.24? What does that 0.03 difference even mean?
However, if a woman is educated, if she is working outside home, she has plenty of incentive to keep the number of children down, it is in her interest to do so.
Yes, so this is actually stage three of the DTM...
In fact as I recall, they did try DTM in countries like India, where they gave people information about contraception and urged the men to practice family planning. It was an abject failure.
WTF are you talking about? Do you mean that India as a society adopted policies which conformed to the DTM? You're talking about education. They tried to educate the population with regards to family planning and it didn't work. How is this trying the DTM? That makes not one iota of sense.
But when they empowered women, gave them small loans to start their own businesses, provided for their education, that produced results. Being independent, educated also gives her the courage to speak out for her interests.
As I already said, and in my post you quoted no less, this is assumed by the DTM. That model already assumes this to be true.
I think it is the female emancipation model that has proved successful, rather than DTM.
What model? Can you provide a source for the actual model, and not your interpretation of it?