Canada envy, amid a global meltdown

SirJosephPorter

Time Out
Nov 7, 2008
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I probably sound like a broken record on the subject, but Friday there was another article in the Globe and Mail about Canadian banks. The headline is from Globe and mail.

Canada's banks are finally getting some respect.


Derided for years as meek and mild while banks around the world expanded wildly, suddenly the reputation of Canada's big lenders as prudent and sometimes downright boring has become an asset instead of a liability.


U.S. President Barack Obama has heaped praise on the management of this country's financial system. Ireland is considering overhauling its system to look more like Canada's. Financial papers around the world are running headlines such as “Canada banks prove envy of the world.”

Since the credit crunch began in the summer of 2007, the Big Five banks have booked a total of $18.9-billion in profits. In roughly the same period, the five biggest U.S. banks have lost more than $37-billion (U.S.).


The reason comes down to a fundamental conservatism. From lending practices to bets on trading to financial reserves and takeovers, the Big Five banks have long tended to be more careful than their global peers.


There are however, clouds over the horizon.

Profit growth in general is a thing of the past until the economy picks up. Most analysts agree that 1st quarter was the high point for the year, rest of the year profits will go down.

There's also nagging doubts that dividend payments are unsustainable and that something bad is still lurking on balance sheets.

Still, the banks are wary of getting cocky when a careful approach has worked well.
“It's a good thing for us to recognize the things we do very well, but maybe do it in what is appropriately a Canadian way – with modesty,” said Bank of Montreal CEO Bill Downe.



reportonbusiness.com: Canada envy, amid a global meltdown
 

Kreskin

Doctor of Thinkology
Feb 23, 2006
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The wide disparity between dividend yields and interest rates is in my view something that will need to correct sooner or later. Maybe they can wait out a recovery and let things stay where they are. Usually something has to give. A few years ago in the US housing market it was pointed out that either rents had to increase by 5% per year for about 5 years or the valuations had to decline to bring price and investment cashflows in line. Steep financial disconnects correct one way or another. We'll see how this one plays out.
 

lone wolf

Grossly Underrated
Nov 25, 2006
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In the bush near Sudbury
The banks are doing well....

FNX mining
Xstrada
Vale Inco
Boart Longyear
Atlas - Copaco
Essar Steel
Tembec

That's just within a couple of hundred miles from me ... and well over 2000 people out of work in the Mid-north.

Then, there's the trickle down effect....

...but the banks are doing well. So are insurance companies....
 
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SirJosephPorter

Time Out
Nov 7, 2008
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The wide disparity between dividend yields and interest rates is in my view something that will need to correct sooner or later.

Kreskin, it all depends upon the performance of the banks. So far they are doing remarkably well, and there has been no talk of cutting dividends. However, last year (and this year) banks didn’t increase their dividends, as they do most of the years.

But there is always the nagging suspicion that dividends may be cut (personally I don’t see that happening; I think bank profits will fall this year, but not enough for them to cut dividends, but it is a possibility).

But interest rates and bank dividends are not really connected; the two are totally different entities. Interest rates depend upon the performance of the economy, while dividend rate depends upon the performance of the individual company (or a bank in this case). The two are not connected.
 

SirJosephPorter

Time Out
Nov 7, 2008
11,956
56
48
Ontario
The banks are doing well....

FNX mining
Xstrada
Vale Inco
Boart Longyear
Atlas - Copaco
Essar Steel
Tembec

That's just within a couple of hundred miles from me ... and well over 2000 people out of work in the Mid-north.

Then, there's the trickle down effect....

...but the banks are doing well. So are insurance companies....

Would you rather all these companies did poorly and also banks did poorly? Be glad that at least banks are doing well.
 

Tyr

Council Member
Nov 27, 2008
2,152
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Sitting at my laptop
The secret to success for the Canadian Banking system is their lack of exposure to bad loans.

For every dollar in assests Canadian banks have $7 in loans - 1-7. Compare that to 1-24 in the USA and 1-61 in Europe and you can see why they are the "darling" of International banking, whilst banks such as RBS are considered "toxic"
 

Kreskin

Doctor of Thinkology
Feb 23, 2006
21,155
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There isn't a direct connection but an indirect comparative (rates vs dividends). Over time there is relativity of movement between the return of all assets because everything is generally affected by economic conditions. Is it reasonable to think banks can continue to proper if everything is falling apart around them? Interest rates aren't priced with such optimism. Usually there isn't such a disparity between risk free returns and dividends in relation to each other. Right now these dividends are priced as if we're in a stable and strong growing economy. Interest rates aren't. Hopefully when the smoke clears everything is once again priced according hoyle without too many surprises.
 
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Tyr

Council Member
Nov 27, 2008
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Sitting at my laptop
Time Magazine

The One Country That Might Avoid Recession Is...

Brazil is no stranger to economic crises. In the 1970s and '80s, Latin America's economic giant turned financial mismanagement into an art form. The current global turmoil has not left Brazil unscathed: stock prices, exports and growth are all down. But something interesting is at work this time around, and the best place to see it is in one of Brazil's favelas, the vast urban slums that are desperate even in the best of times. Walk through São Paulo's sprawling Brasilândia, though, and you don't sense the relentless doom and gloom gripping other cities in the world. Take Efigênia Francisca da Silva, who exudes middle-class expectations and remains positive despite the tsunami of bad news. Thanks to a government scheme to encourage entrepreneurs, the once dirt-poor housewife has received some $8,000 in low-interest bank credits in recent years and now owns three shops that sell everything from shampoo to public-transit tickets. "I didn't have a bank account before," says Da Silva, 37, standing beneath graffiti-covered walls and pirated power lines. "I never had a car. I bought a Fiat Palio." Does she fear the global recession will quash her dreams? "I trust Lula. I don't think we'll be hit that hard."
 

Kreskin

Doctor of Thinkology
Feb 23, 2006
21,155
149
63
Perhaps I should rephrase that. Why do you consider them thieves?
 

Kreskin

Doctor of Thinkology
Feb 23, 2006
21,155
149
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That has nothing to do with anyone being thieves. What alternative banking system would you like?
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
109,288
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Low Earth Orbit
One where money is backed by actual assets or gold/silver instead of mad up from thin air. Fiat banking is a crooks dream come true.