Well, I’m not sure what would constitute evidence, since Dutch disease is as much about fear as it is about economic stats. Economic behaviour also is strongly conditioned by self-fulfilling prophesy, and prophesy fulfilled requires a time-frame. To some extent, the very large value of petroleum products exported and the rising exchange rate plus the MOF’s comment suggesting that protection from rising exchange rates is needed constitutes some sort of evidence.
If I were looking for more robust evidence, I might look for indications that persons were acting on beliefs. For example, what are trends in capital investment and job creation in industrial sectors that are fairly independent of the energy sector relative to those strongly related to the energy sector, and what are comparative migration rates for manufacturing compared to energy regions? If persons are voting with their bucks and their feet to get out of manufacturing areas, and if they do it for long enough, then manufacturing will certainly become ‘hollowed out.’ Hollowed out’ is already an expression that’s not too hard to find in the media.
Rather than evidence, I was more reacting to the frequent vacuous uses of ‘productivity’ as the fix all heal all for every problem economic by conservative economist political types. We deserve better fro0m our leaders. I think we are still the only OECD country that doesn’t have a formal national economic strategic plan.
‘Productivity’ is one of those highly abstract macro-economic measures that have few solid unqualified interpretations in the objective world. Its basic form is output divided by labour. The terms says nothing about causes or solutions; it is almost a tautology. ‘Productivity’ however, is a favorite among our elitist politicians because using it suggests that the working person is the problem—they aren’t productive enough. We’ve all heard the usual rants. In fact, a major determinant of productivity is the quality of equipment workers are able to use, and that is a problem with capital investment and not with workers themselves.
Anyway, our MOF saying that increasing productivity is the best defense is a little like going to the doctor with complaints of sore knees and being told that you have arthritis. Arthritis means joint inflammation. The diagnosis says nothing about a specific pathology, causes or treatments: We’re prescribed anti-inflammatory (duh, well what did we expect, a cure). Treatment, ah yes, we already know what medicine we’ll get when the MOF says we have productivity insufficiency (duh, what’d we expect a cure or perhaps for our elites to share the pain). Our elites seem to be busy exporting capital, and they expect to be loved, or at least feared and respected by us. Duh, what’d we expect when we voted anyway, a plan? Where's the plan anyway? But I rant, so I'll stop.