Conservatives and Liberals in a virtual tie nationally

sanch

Electoral Member
Apr 8, 2005
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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20060802.wpolll0802/BNStory/National/home

Ottawa — A new poll suggests Tory support is sliding over voter concern that Canada has become too cozy with the United States on Middle East policy.

The latest results by Decima Research, released to The Canadian Press, put the Conservatives and Liberals in a virtual tie nationally.

The Tories had 32 per cent support compared with 31 per cent for the Liberals and 16 per cent for the New Democrats.

But the Liberals widened their Ontario lead to 42 per cent of voter support compared with 33 per cent for the Conservatives, and have pulled in front of the Tories in Quebec for the first time since last winter's campaign.
 

#juan

Hall of Fame Member
Aug 30, 2005
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I think most could see that coming. If the Liberals get themselves a credible leader who will commit to continue rebuilding our military, and keep Canada/U.S. relations reasonable, the tories will be history. Depends on what Harper does about it.
 

JonB2004

Council Member
Mar 10, 2006
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#juan said:
I think most could see that coming. If the Liberals get themselves a credible leader who will commit to continue rebuilding our military, and keep Canada/U.S. relations reasonable, the tories will be history. Depends on what Harper does about it.


I agree with you, #juan. But I don't know if its really the right time to give the Liberals another chance. I was hoping that the Liberals would be out until at least April 2007. But it looks like they will be in sometime in November. At the moment, if an election occurs in October, I would prefer another Conservative minority.
 

Toro

Senate Member
RE: Conservatives and Lib

The Tories will not lose the next election if it is held within the next 6 months.

The Tories will not lose based on their stance in the Middle East.

The Tories will win a majority if they govern relatively competent and do not stray too far to the right.
 

FiveParadox

Governor General
Dec 20, 2005
5,875
43
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Vancouver, BC
Re: RE: Conservatives and Lib

Toro said:
The Tories will win a majority if they govern relatively competent and do not stray too far to the right.
Not with thirty-two per cent of the vote, they won't.
 

BitWhys

what green dots?
Apr 5, 2006
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RE: Conservatives and Lib

The Tory days of competency are over. They look like W clones on international policy, lumber is blowing up, health care wait times and the fiscal imbalance are politically undeliverable and out of control, Rona is actually going to have to pony up a plan in October, which should be rich, the economy is stuttering and they're broke.

They'll be lucky if they don't end up eating their weak and elderly in public.
 

BitWhys

what green dots?
Apr 5, 2006
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RE: Conservatives and Lib

And Kelowna WILL come back to haunt them.
 

gc

Electoral Member
May 9, 2006
931
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RE: Conservatives and Lib

If that poll is accurate, then that is the best news I've heard all day.

By the way, the tories will not win a majority the next election no matter how they govern. In order to get a majority it is almost essential to pick up more seats in Quebec. Given that the tories have pretty much broken their promise to address the fiscal imbalance (which I'm guessing is why a lot of Quebecers voted for the tories) I don't think they will pick up any more seats. Quebec is probably the one province that might hurt the tories when it comes to the conflict in the middle east and Harper's response. Unless the liberals choose bob rae as leader, and the tories manage to pick up another 30 seats in Ontario, they will not have a majority. Best case scenario is a tory minority, but I think we will be looking at another minority government regardless of who wins the next election.
 

JonB2004

Council Member
Mar 10, 2006
1,188
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Re: RE: Conservatives and Lib

BitWhys said:
The Tory days of competency are over. They look like W clones on international policy, lumber is blowing up, health care wait times and the fiscal imbalance are politically undeliverable and out of control, Rona is actually going to have to pony up a plan in October, which should be rich, the economy is stuttering and they're broke.

They'll be lucky if they don't end up eating their weak and elderly in public.


First of all, BitWhys, Harper is not a GWB clone, so get over it. Yes, the Conservatives have screwed up on the softwood lumber deal and the fiscal imbalance. They Conservatives have sort of addressed health care wait times because they did give $1.6 billion extra in the budget. I support a made-in-Canada environment plan. I just hope its not going to be useless. The Conservatives are not broke. There is a whole bunch of stories going around that the economy is slowing down and then there is another bunch that say that the economy is maintaining speed. The stock markets, energy prices, and inflation continue to rise so that is leading me to believe that the economy is maintaining speed, but that could very well change.


BitWhys said:
And Kelowna WILL come back to haunt them.


I agree.


BitWhys said:
I LIKE minority governments.


Why? I strongly dislike minority governments. There is no stability. And there are always too many elections with minority governments.
 

FiveParadox

Governor General
Dec 20, 2005
5,875
43
48
Vancouver, BC
Re: Tories and Grits Tied

I have an odd affection for minority governments; the Government of Canada is required to take a more active role in assuring that the wishes of the House of Commons, and the Parliament Assembled of Canada, are respected. (This is not to say, of course, that I am in opposition to majority governments—both serve their purposes in the proper situations.) In a situation such as this, where the electorate is so divided between the Conservative Party of Canada and the Liberal Party of Canada, I would suggest that minorities in the House are quite appropriate.
 

zoofer

Council Member
Dec 31, 2005
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Sorry to say but the Tories will be history if not sooner then later IMO.
Changing demographics will eventually overwhelm English speaking European Canadians with foreign speakers from the 3rd world. Expect a slew of North African and Lebanese refugees to enter Canada. As most (800,000 to 1 million) claim to support Hezbollah, they will hate Israel and by extension the USA and Conservative Canada. They will vote Liberal or old Socialist. The Liberals were loathe to even label these groups as terrorists as they helped elect Lib MPs.
The 30 million illegals in the USA will tilt the vote for the Dems. People worry about global warming will impact their lives and that of their grandchildren? Hilarious.
 

Hank C

Electoral Member
Jan 4, 2006
953
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Calgary, AB
zoofer said:
Sorry to say but the Tories will be history if not sooner then later IMO.
Changing demographics will eventually overwhelm English speaking European Canadians with foreign speakers from the 3rd world. Expect a slew of North African and Lebanese refugees to enter Canada. As most (800,000 to 1 million) claim to support Hezbollah, they will hate Israel and by extension the USA and Conservative Canada. They will vote Liberal or old Socialist. The Liberals were loathe to even label these groups as terrorists as they helped elect Lib MPs.
The 30 million illegals in the USA will tilt the vote for the Dems. People worry about global warming will impact their lives and that of their grandchildren? Hilarious.

As a dual citizen, this is one of the most sickining outcomes I fear we are heading towards.
 

iARTthere4iam

Electoral Member
Jul 23, 2006
533
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Pointy Rocks
I am absolutely amazed that anyone would vote for the liberals right now. Why? They are leaderless, and directionless. We have just come out or a long period of liberal governance that wasted billions of dollars ( the HR billion-dollar boondoggl, gun registry, and sponsorship scandal).
Why anyone is affraid of Harper based on his actions to date is beyond me. Some people only ever vote for one party, this to me is strange and somehow seem counter to the idea of democracy.
 

BitWhys

what green dots?
Apr 5, 2006
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Re: RE: Conservatives and Lib

JonB2004 said:
First of all, BitWhys, Harper is not a GWB clone, so get over it.

I've got a filibuster and an hour and a half wasted in committee over the word "substainable" that proves otherwise and there's no need to be rude but if you're that insecure about the whole thing then whatever.

JonB2004 said:
There is a whole bunch of stories going around that the economy is slowing down and then there is another bunch that say that the economy is maintaining speed. The stock markets, energy prices, and inflation continue to rise so that is leading me to believe that the economy is maintaining speed, but that could very well change.

The report of 0% growth is not a "story". That's called a statistic.
 

BitWhys

what green dots?
Apr 5, 2006
3,157
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Re: RE: Conservatives and Lib

JonB2004 said:
They Conservatives have sort of addressed health care wait times because they did give $1.6 billion extra in the budget. I support a made-in-Canada environment plan. I just hope its not going to be useless. The Conservatives are not broke.

I remember something about one of their fiscal cats popping out of the herd about Health Care but I don't recall it addressing the Wait Time Guarantee. Got a link handy for me? thanx

"made-in-Canada". If its any good it would merely compliment our Kyoto agreement in which case so do I, but a over a year and a half after Ambrose claimed to have a "very thorough policy" there is STILL no such beast or anything like it in existence.

As a government, yes they ARE broke. Harper has shot the wad, IMO in the interests of pulling off a sufficient short-term run in popularity to score a majority government. heh. Time for a change of plans. IF they don't add another nickel to the budget (in light of the need for a fiscal imbalance patch as well as Kyoto and Kelowna replacements, I doubt it) and IF Canada's economy continues to grow as predicted (which is questionable) they will have just enough revenues left at the end of their term to deliver the other 1% of the GST rollback. if they book it right.
 

JonB2004

Council Member
Mar 10, 2006
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The idea of 0% ecoonmic growth in Canada is just speculation. The economy is expected to grow 3.3% this year.

And fine, if you don't believe me about health care wait times money, then I'll provide a link. Health care transfers are expected to grow by 6% every year. That means an extra $1.1 billion went to wait times this year. http://www.fin.gc.ca/budget06/bp/bpc3ee.htm#health

The made-in-Canada plan will probably be good. But we'll have to wait to October to see.

And Harper isn't broke.
 

Gonzo

Electoral Member
Dec 5, 2004
997
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Was Victoria, now Ottawa
How can a made in Canada environmental plan work? Canada cant even reach it's Kyoto targets. Kyoto managed to get major governments to sign on, thats the great thing about it. The world needs a global plan to curb greenhouse gases. A made in Canada plan would be useless.