Canada Housing Market Is 63% Overvalued: Deutsche Bank

B00Mer

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Canada Housing Market Is 63% Overvalued: Deutsche Bank


Airdrie, Alberta development in last 5 years.

Canada, Australia and New Zealand are in the top ranks of the developed world’s most overpriced housing markets, according to Deutsche Bank AG.

Homes in Canada are the most expensive, being 63 percent overvalued, the bank said in a survey ranking Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries’ markets. The measure reaches 56 percent in New Zealand, the second-most priciest, 53 percent in Belgium and 49 percent in Australia.

In Wollongong, a seaside city in the Australian state of New South Wales, homes are more expensive than in New York when the median house price is compared to the median household income, economists Torsten Slok, Matthew Luzzetti and Peter Hooper wrote in the report. The survey compares home values to their historic multiples of rent and household income.

Central bankers have been using financial policy to reduce the risk of house-price bubbles in countries including the U.K., Hong Kong and Singapore. Restrictive policies reduce credit growth and price gains by 1 percent annually, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist Hui Shan estimated last year.

Warnings by Canadian policy makers about overvalued homes are starting to sink in, with households the least optimistic since May 2013 about further price growth. In Australia, home prices have climbed 19 percent over the past two years, driven by a cash rate that’s remained at a record low since August 2013, contributing to record-high debt levels.

Home values in the U.S. are about 5 percent below their historical average based on the measurement, the Deutsche Bank report said. In the U.K., where the government has encouraged low down payments on mortgages, they’re 38 percent overvalued.

Values in Canada are 35 percent above the historical average relative to incomes and 91 percent higher when compared with rents. Prices in Belgium are 51 percent higher than the average relative to income, and in Australia 60 percent above the average relative to rents.

source: Canada Housing Market Is 63% Overvalued: Deutsche Bank - Bloomberg

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Something I have been saying on this forum for 5 years.. Over price and over rated.

$500,000 for the average home in Airdrie, Alberta.. why?? If I'm going to pay 1/2 million for a house I want a yard.

You can get a home for $100,000 equivalent to one in Airdie, in Dallas - Ft. Worth.
 

Walter

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A house is worth what someone is willing to a for it.
 

B00Mer

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Address: 1863 E KIRKLAND Lane
City: Tempe
State: Arizona
Zip: 85281
County: Maricopa
Price: $87,500
Listing #: 5216865
ARMLS
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
Listing Type: Short Sale
Subdivision: Casitas East
Status: Under Contract-Bckup
Property Information:
Bedrooms: 2
Total Baths: 2
Year Built: 1979
Sq. Feet: 1037
Lot Size: 0.00
Taxes: 770.00; 2014
Air: Refrigeration
Heat: Electric Heat
Pool: No Pool
Construction: Frame - Wood
Stories: 1
Appliances: Disposal
Utilities: City Water; Sewer - Public; Elec: SRP
HOA Dues: $188.50
HOA Description: Common Area Maint, Water, Sewer, Garbage Collection, Front Yard Maint, Exterior Mnt of Unit; Clubhouse/Re
Land Tenure: Fee Simple

More homes here: 85281, 85282, 85283 Homes for Sale

A house is worth what someone is willing to a for it.

...and there is one born every day. ;)
 

Scooby

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Not to worry, the government will bail out the banks when the mass defaults come down, besides the CMHC insured ones.
 
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Angstrom

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Value will be re-set and adjusted to real value when all the baby-boomers try to sell their house in the next 20 years. That will pop the bubble.

10 million house for sale in Canada at the same time. Value will definitely drop.
 

damngrumpy

Executive Branch Member
Mar 16, 2005
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Boomers most will be dead in twenty years and the people holding
reverse mortgages will get one hell of a surprise when the re-evaluation
takes place. The bubble will burst soon I am afraid. This was not even
calculated when the government policy in 2008 was supposed to save us
we are going to be victims of something worse if the bubble bursts
things that are unsustainable do burst
 

Angstrom

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We are always behind the USA.. they had their housing bust, we will have ours.. 2015/2016.

The Bank of Canada came out today saying the market was over by 30%.

Housing market overvalued by as much as 30%, BoC says

The German Bank bested that with 63%..



Wait till this spring. :)

Nah, this spring is too soon.

It's more when all the boomers try to sell to go move into a old age retirement home.

It won't be foreclosures by banks.

Boomers are done payments on their houses. They just won't get their asking value.

Worse case scenario 50% of the houses don't sell at all and they will be abandoned.
 

B00Mer

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Nah, this spring is too soon.

It's more when all the boomers try to sell to go move into a old age retirement home.

It won't be foreclosures by banks.

Boomers are done payments on their houses. They just won't get their asking value.

Worse case scenario 50% of the houses don't sell at all and they will be abandoned.

The housing market does not have to wait for people to sell..

Alberta's economy is oil based, and people moved here when oil was $120 a barrel, now it's around $50. Shell laid off 150 employees today, and other companies are starting to layoff workers.

People move where the jobs are..

Also, inflation will hit Canada soon, with an increase in mortgage rates, and people will not be able to afford the payments.. backs will foreclose and no buyers will drive the price down, maybe 80%.

1980's all over again.
 

Angstrom

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The housing market does not have to wait for people to sell..

Alberta's economy is oil based, and people moved here when oil was $120 a barrel, now it's around $50. Shell laid off 150 employees today, and other companies are starting to layoff workers.

People move where the jobs are..

Also, inflation will hit Canada soon, with an increase in mortgage rates, and people will not be able to afford the payments.. backs will foreclose and no buyers will drive the price down, maybe 80%.

1980's all over again.

Well that will be good for people like me who decided to not buy based on prices were over-evaluated.
 
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captain morgan

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We are always behind the USA.. they had their housing bust, we will have ours.. 2015/2016.

Apples and oranges.

Proceeds from the sale of a primary residence in Canada is not subject to capital gains tax (or income tax etc). To my knowledge, this is not the case in the USA, although I understand that you can write-off the financing charges in the US

The Bank of Canada came out today saying the market was over by 30%.

Housing market overvalued by as much as 30%, BoC says

The German Bank bested that with 63%..

Above is the reason that the analyses of the 2 institutions are highly questionable... 30% vs 63% and somehow I am supposed to believe either?

I thought for sure your bubble would have burst years ago, I guess all good things must come to an end at some point.

A big part of the differing experiences between Canada and the USA has (had) to do with the different banking regulations between our nations in addition to the demographics that were buying the homes.
 

MHz

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Mar 16, 2007
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About the same ratio for our perceived morality and what it actually works out to be.

But it will still be in Alberta.
Right now you could probably name your price in Tumbler Ridge. SOme cheap ones in Thasis too.
You know that is in BC right?