British economy will be largest in Europe by 2030, according to CEBR


Blackleaf
#1
The British economy is on course to overtake France and Germany to become Europe's biggest economy by 2030.

Thanks to Britain's Tory/LibDem coalition government's austerity measures (measures which have been derided by the Left) and Britain's refusal to join the Euro (another decision derided by the Left), Britain is to surge ahead of France and Germany in the coming years, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

In a significant boost to Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne’s austerity programme, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) hailed the UK as the second-best performing economy in the Western world after the United States – and said France was one of the worst.

Our strong currency, low taxes and the projected rise in our population – in contrast with some of our competitors – means our GDP will outstrip France by 2018 and Germany 12 years later.

But competition from emerging economies means India and Brazil will overtake us by 2028, pushing us to seventh in the world economic league table. Brazil overtook the UK in 2011 to briefly become the world’s sixth largest economy. But it has since fallen back and is not expected to overtake the UK again until 2023.

By then, France will be only the 13th largest economy in the world and will also have been overtaken by countries such as Mexico, Russia and Canada – a humiliating blow to the proud nation and an indictment of current Socialist president Francois Hollande’s policies.


The study by the CEBR looks at the 30 largest economies in the world and predicts how they will fare in the coming years.

It finds that China will overtake the US as the world’s largest economy in around 2028.


British economy will be largest in Europe by 2030: Austerity will see UK surging ahead of Germany and France


We are set to leapfrog Germany and France but lose to India and Brazil

Austerity and our refusal to join Euro put us in good stead, study claims

Study was by the Centre for Economics and Business Research


By Daniel Martin, Whitehall Correspondent
26 December 2013
Daily Mail

Britain will leapfrog Germany to become Europe’s largest economy by 2030, economists predict.


Thanks to our decision not to join the euro, we will overtake France in less than five years to become the fifth-largest economy in the world.


In a significant boost to George Osborne’s austerity programme, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) hailed the UK as the second-best performing economy in the Western world after the United States – and said France was one of the worst.


A vision of the future? The predictions, right, could be good news for George Osborne if true. The UK is set to drop from sixth to seventh in the world economic league table between now and 2028, overtaking France but being overtaken by India and Brazil. Between 2028 and 2030, however, the UK will regain sixth spot by overtaking Germany. France will have dropped all the way down to 13th. Canada will remain the 10th largest economy as it is now

Our strong currency, low taxes and the projected rise in our population – in contrast with some of our competitors – means our GDP will outstrip France by 2018 and Germany 12 years later.


But competition from emerging economies means India and Brazil will overtake us by 2028, pushing us to seventh in the world economic league table.

By then, France will be only the 13th largest economy in the world – a humiliating blow to the proud nation and an indictment of current Socialist president Francois Hollande’s policies.



Unbeatable: We could not hope to rival China, partly because of its huge population

The CEBR said Britain has prospered outside the eurozone and will continue to do so, while our low taxes have promoted growth.


By comparison, things are so bad in recession-hit Italy that this year the size of its economy has been exceeded by Russia.


Britain avoided a double-dip recession in the wake of the 2008 global economic crisis, and has now returned steadfastly to growth.


The UK’s economy is set to grow by 1.4 per cent this year – well ahead of countries struggling under the yoke of the eurozone.


Last night a Treasury spokesman said the study vindicates George Osborne’s austerity programme. He said: ‘Britain’s hard work is paying off and the long-term economic plan is working.


‘The economy is growing, the deficit is falling and jobs are being created and while this report is encouraging, the job is not yet done. So the Government will go on taking the difficult decisions needed to secure a responsible recovery for all.’


The study by the CEBR looks at the 30 largest economies in the world and predicts how they will fare in the coming years.


It finds that China will overtake the US as the world’s largest economy in around 2028. The report outlines how the so-called BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – will soon start to outstrip their Western counterparts as their industrialisation takes hold.


India is predicted to outstrip Japan’s economy by 2028. Despite this exceptional rise, Britain is still giving the country millions of pounds in aid.


Hailing the strength of Britain’s recovery, the CEBR said population growth would be a factor in our future success. Germany, on the other hand, is set to see its population plummet.


Booming: China is expected to beat the U.S. to the top spot. Pictured: Workers at a clothing factory in Panjin


Changes: India will surge ahead but still receives British aid, while France could have grim times ahead

However, the CEBR warned that Britain’s prospects could be harmed if it fails to trade more with developing and growing countries such as China.


The economists hinted that leaving the EU could also be bad for our prospects, and that if Scotland leaves the union that would hit the size of our GDP.


Their report added: The factors driving the UK’s overtaking Germany are the assumption of a falling value for the Euro, Germany’s falling population and the UK’s rising population.’


The CEBR said that by 2028, the UK economy is forecast to be only 3 per cent smaller than the German economy, meaning it is likely to become the largest Western European economy by around 2030. If the euro breaks up, the outlook for German GDP would be much better and the outlook for the other European economies correspondingly worse.


On the assumption that the euro holds, Germany drops from the fourth-largest economy in 2013 to the sixth largest in 2028 – after which it would drop below the UK. For France the drop is worse – from fifth in 2013 to 10th in 2023 and 13th in 2028.


CEBR’s latest forecasts now show China overtaking the US in 2028 to become the world’s largest economy. This is later than some analysts have suggested and reflects the continuing performance of the US as the West’s strongest economy and the slowing down of the Chinese economy.


India is expected to overtake Japan in 2028 to become the world’s third largest economy.


Brazil overtook the UK in 2011 to briefly become the world’s sixth largest economy. But it has since fallen back and is not expected to overtake again until 2023.





Read more: British economy will be largest in Europe by 2030 | Mail Online
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Last edited by Blackleaf; Dec 26th, 2013 at 12:01 PM..
 
petros
#2
Good luck with that.
 
captain morgan
+4
#3  Top Rated Post
I had a dollar for every time that an economist made an accurate prediction - well, I might have one dollar
 
Sal
+1
#4
Quote: Originally Posted by captain morganView Post

I had a dollar for every time that an economist made an accurate prediction - well, I might have one dollar

I'll double it for ya.
 
captain morgan
+1
#5
You're sweet... Lemme go back and edit the amount in my post, ok?
 
coldstream
#6
I don't believe it.

Quite frankly it is impossible to trust any figures on economic activity or prospective growth now because it is filled with fictional elements.. futile financial transactions.. rather than the real value added physical economy.

Britain is going to find out... like Spain and Ireland and Greece have already, that the only basis for a sound economy is an integrated national industrial economy.. all of which is being sabotaged by the European Union.

The EU is already imploding, led by the inevitable collapse of the Euro Zone. Britain and the rest of Europe, in fact the world, will face a long Depression of unprecedented scope, until some organization and sanity is restored to the global economy.. essentially reestablishing the Nation State as its primary structure.

But that won't happen until we've had another World War. It's on the horizon.. maybe a decade or two.. maybe less.

Don't believe ANYTHING that the Sorcerers of the Global 'Free' Market Economy tell you.
 
Blackleaf
#7
Quote: Originally Posted by petrosView Post

Good luck with that.


Cheers. I shall enjoy it.
 
petros
#8
You hope you will.
.
 
Tonington
+2
#9
LOL. What a funny report. Britain performs second best to the US? Who cares about placement on the list? The real indicators of an economy's performance over a period of time is the change in the GDP, not some placement on a list...

Some simple math to illustrate. Annualized change in GDP for some selected countries. Excuse the choppiness of the image, google doesn't seem to like my excel screen shot:


Looks like Australia and Canada are the best performing economies among the non-BRIC countries to me. In fact the UK economy gets worse with time, likewise for France and Germany. If you look at just the baseline year of 2012, and the final year of 2028, then Canada and Australia have doubled the size of their economies. The United States, Germany, France, United Kingdom? None have doubled, though the US does come close.

Of course, a huge grain of salt is needed for these predictions. What happens if Scotland and Quebec separate from their respective nations, how does that change the GDP? What about natural disasters and unpredictable economic bubbles?
 
Blackleaf
#10
Quote: Originally Posted by ToningtonView Post

LOL. What a funny report. Britain performs second best to the US?

Yep. The British economy is currently outperforming every Western economy, including Canada, France, Italy, Germany, Australia, except the USA. And that's coming from the experts, which you're not one of.

Quote:

Looks like Australia and Canada are the best performing economies among the non-BRIC countries to me.

The experts (which you're not) say that the two best-performing Western economies are the UK and the US. In fact, between now and 2018 Britain will be the ONLY major Western economy to move UP the world economic league table. At the moment Britain is the sixth largest economy in the world. In 2018 it will overtake France to become the world's fifth-largest economy. And remember, even in the 2030s the UK will still have a larger economy than both Canada and Australia.

Quote:

In fact the UK economy gets worse with time,

Not according to the experts it doesn't. The future is bright for the UK economy. With it being outside the Eurozone; with austerity measures taking place; with low taxation; and with a low unemployment rate the UK economy will be one of the best-performing Western economies over the next twenty years. The future may be fairly bleak for Germany, France and Italy, but it isn't for Britain.

Quote:

If you look at just the baseline year of 2012, and the final year of 2028, then Canada and Australia have doubled the size of their economies. The United States, Germany, France, United Kingdom? None have doubled, though the US does come close.

And, despite that, Canada and Australia won't even get close to overtaking Britain and Germany economically.

But remember, the Canadian economy relies on the US economy probably more than any other country in the world. Canada may double the size of its economy between now and 2028, but a lot of that growth will come from a growing US economy.

For decades and decades, annual Canadian and US GDP growth statistics virtually overlay one on top of the other. If the US grows well, then so does Canada. If the US doesn't grow well, then Canada usually doesn't grow well. If the US economy almost doubles in size over 15 years, then so does Canada's.

A quarter of Canadian exports go to the US. You could say that the entire Canadian economy is integrated into the US economy. I wonder how the Canadian economy would have fared between now and 2028 had Canada been thousands of miles from the US.

So I wouldn't pat yourself on the back because you may double the size of your economy over the next 15 years. Unlike Britain, Canada's economy is almost completely reliant on the US and, unlike Britain, Canada will not be moving up the economic league table between now and 2028.

Quote:

What happens if Scotland and Quebec separate from their respective nations,


Canadian may soon have to worry about Quebec separating, but I shan't be worrying about Scotland. It's staying put.
 
Walter
#11
That's a long time from now.
 
Tonington
#12
Quote: Originally Posted by BlackleafView Post

And that's coming from the experts, which you're not one of.

You don't need to be an expert to take some data and have a look at it...though it's funny to hear a noted climate change denier saying such a thing.
 
petros
#13
And you don't need a speculum to know where his head is.
 
taxslave
#14
Since Britain's economy is in the tank along with a few other parasitic European nations the only way the economy can go is up.
 
Blackleaf
#15
Quote: Originally Posted by ToningtonView Post

You don't need to be an expert to take some data and have a look at it...though it's funny to hear a noted climate change denier saying such a thing.

Unlike the Global Warmists, I'm not a gullible fool who believes all the data they are looking at. Unlike the gullible Global Warmists, I know when I'm being hoodwinked and when I'm not. Even when it was revealed a few years ago in leaked emails that Global Warmists at the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit had conspired to manipulate climate data, to show "evidence" of Global Warming when they had none whatsoever, the Global Warmists around the world still carried on believing every single piece of "evidence" of Global Warming coming out of the university, even when it had all been discredited. They HAVE to believe all "evidence" of Global Warming, no matter how discredited and inaccurate it is, because Global Warmism is now a religion and its followers adhere to it at all costs, no matter what. Even when Britain's Met Office - the best meteorological office in the world - admitted in 2011 that the Global Warming which it had believed in does not, in fact, exist after all and that the world is actually getting COOLER, it did nothing to stop Global Warmists banging on about Global Warming. They just ignored what the Met Office said. Like all hardcore devotees to a religion, they carry on believing what they have been told.

Quote: Originally Posted by taxslaveView Post

Since Britain's economy is in the tank along with a few other parasitic European nations the only way the economy can go is up.

You obviously haven't read the article. Britain's economy isn't in the tank. It is the second-best performing economy in the Western world.
 
Tonington
#16
Quote: Originally Posted by BlackleafView Post

I'm not a gullible fool who believes all the data they are looking at.

Denial. When you like the answer, you like the data. When you don't like the answer you make some appeal to authority or some other form of logical fallacy.
 
darkbeaver
+1
#17
The OPs theory is insane. By 2030 Britian will have eight months of winter.
 
taxslave
#18
Quote: Originally Posted by darkbeaverView Post

The OPs theory is insane. By 2030 Britian will have eight months of winter.

Looking for an export market for snowcones?
 
darkbeaver
+1
#19
Quote: Originally Posted by taxslaveView Post

Looking for an export market for snowcones?

Yah and they will be very hardsells in the northern hemisphere.
 
petros
+1
#20
I like when BL posts comic relief. If Scotland goes Indy, All the benefits outlined go out the window as the North Sea oil and gas would end up in Scottish coffers. No wonder they want to go it on their own.
 
Spade
#21
Scotland should do it right and join Norway.
 
petros
#22
Get back to their real roots.
 
darkbeaver
#23
London’s gold vaults virtually empty, China buying up physical supply | Hang The Bankers
 
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