Capital Economics is expecting the loonie to weaken further this year against the U.S. dollar, before falling to US$0.86 next year.
David Madani, Canada economist with Capital Economics, said in a note Tuesday that the Canadian dollar would decline from its current level to US$0.92 by the end of 2012. His forecast is based on the further weakening of commodity prices and a lack of an interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada this year.
Oil prices are the biggest factor in that forecast. Prices for crude have already seen sharp pullbacks since May, with Brent prices retreating $30 to below $90 a barrel recently. Capital Economics currently forecasts Brent prices will end the year at $85 a barrel. Mr. Madani said that given the recent weakness, that bearish forecast could play out sooner than expected.
Weakness in commodity prices tends to hurt the Canadian dollar, as it is often viewed as being a so-called commodity currency.
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The loonie will hit US86 cents next year: Capital Economics | Trading Desk | Investing | Financial Post
David Madani, Canada economist with Capital Economics, said in a note Tuesday that the Canadian dollar would decline from its current level to US$0.92 by the end of 2012. His forecast is based on the further weakening of commodity prices and a lack of an interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada this year.
Oil prices are the biggest factor in that forecast. Prices for crude have already seen sharp pullbacks since May, with Brent prices retreating $30 to below $90 a barrel recently. Capital Economics currently forecasts Brent prices will end the year at $85 a barrel. Mr. Madani said that given the recent weakness, that bearish forecast could play out sooner than expected.
Weakness in commodity prices tends to hurt the Canadian dollar, as it is often viewed as being a so-called commodity currency.
more
The loonie will hit US86 cents next year: Capital Economics | Trading Desk | Investing | Financial Post