Elizabeth Warren - The Two Income Trap:


Kreskin
#91
Quote: Originally Posted by L GilbertView Post

You cutting off your hair means you are losing it. The stuff cut is gone but it starts growing on your head again. Whatever amount you had before is irrelevant to it growing back.
Like I said, according to your idiotic reasoning, the economy will likely never grow again after the peak it reached after WW2.

The last time it did well was during the Carter administration.
 
petros
#92
Quote: Originally Posted by KreskinView Post

The last time it did well was during the Carter administration.

When Alaskan and other domestic oil was relied on instead of imports.
 
Tonington
+1
#93
Quote: Originally Posted by petrosView Post

Mmmmm pickled red herring. GDP is a ****ty gauge of an economy recovering from and still on the brink of recession.

You like investopedia, well here's their definition of recession:
A significant decline in activity across the economy, lasting longer than a few months. It is visible in industrial production, employment, real income and wholesale-retail trade. The technical indicator of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country's gross domestic product (GDP); although the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) does not necessarily need to see this occur to call a recession.

Read more: Recession Definition | Investopedia (external - login to view)
The US is not on the brink of a recession. The last quarters have seen growth in gdp, in manufacturing, and in employment.

 
petros
#94
Quote: Originally Posted by ToningtonView Post

The US is not on the brink of a recession. The last quarters have seen growth in gdp, in manufacturing, and in employment.

A new recession seems inevitable

By Chris Isidore@CNNMoney

February 24, 2012: 4:44 PM ET (Just last Friday)

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- While most economists have stopped worrying that the U.S. will fall into a double-dip recession, one influential economist maintains his position that the nation won't be able to avoid a new downturn.

Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, said on Friday that his research firm is sticking with the forecast it made in September: A new recession is inevitable (external - login to view), despite improvement in high-profile economic indicators, such as job creation and unemployment, and a stock market rally.

ECRI is one of the more widely respected firms on economic recessions, as it has never been wrong when forecasting that a recession would start, or failed to predict a recession well before it was widely accepted.

Achuthan predicts the recession will happen even without a new shock to the economy, such as a spike in oil and gas prices (external - login to view) or a Greek sovereign debt default (external - login to view) sparking a financial meltdown (external - login to view). If those things occur, he says they will simply make an inevitable recession more painful.

In fact, Achuthan said data gathered since his September forecast only confirms his view that economic growth has slowed to such a degree that a downturn is now unavoidable, likely by late summer.

"Now that we have several months of definitive hard data, this is not a forecast," he said, pointing to key measures that don't receive as much attention from the public or many economists.

Specifically, he identifies annual growth in industrial production, real personal income and spending, as well as the year-over-year change in gross domestic product, a broad measure of the nation's economic activity. That GDP reading has been stuck between 1.5% and 1.6% growth for the last three quarters, far less encouraging that the rising quarterly GDP, which is more widely reported.
"Basically, growth has flatlined," he said.

Some might think that a new downturn would be a so-called double-dip recession, in that it comes before the economy has fully recovered from the jobs lost during the Great Recession. But Achuthan said if the economy falls into recession at this point, it would be a new recession, not a double dip, given the time that has passed since the formal end of the recession in 2009 and the economic growth since then.
 
Tonington
+1
#95
Quote: Originally Posted by petrosView Post


Some might think that a new downturn would be a so-called double-dip recession, in that it comes before the economy has fully recovered from the jobs lost during the Great Recession. But Achuthan said if the economy falls into recession at this point, it would be a new recession, not a double dip, given the time that has passed since the formal end of the recession in 2009 and the economic growth since then.

Hmm, and the same firm is saying it would be a new recession, given all that time and growth since then. They may be correct, but the US is not on the brink of a recession right now. Spin and twist all you like. That's simply not true.
 
L Gilbert
#96
Quote: Originally Posted by petrosView Post

Mmmmm pickled red herring. GDP is a ****ty gauge of an economy recovering from and still on the brink of recession.

I didn't say it was a gauge, I said it was an indicator (as in one indicator).

Quote:

The WWII stats you refer to are misleading considering USA, Canada and Australia didn't have their industries and agri blown to bits over 6 years.

The stats I posted are US stats.

Quote: Originally Posted by KreskinView Post

The last time it did well was during the Carter administration.

Yes, but although that was pretty high, the highest peak was just after WW2. But, that's just a little info. According to Petros, things don't grow once they've reached their peak, regrowth isn't growth, and recovery isn't growth.

Quote: Originally Posted by petrosView Post

A new recession seems inevitable

By Chris Isidore@CNNMoney

February 24, 2012: 4:44 PM ET (Just last Friday)

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- While most economists have stopped worrying that the U.S. will fall into a double-dip recession, one influential economist maintains his position that the nation won't be able to avoid a new downturn.

So what if the dude has an opinion?

Doesn't look like it has flatlined to me.

U.S. Economy at a Glance

Daily chart: The dating game | The Economist (external - login to view)
 

Similar Threads

20
Warren Jeffs Trial
by damngrumpy | Jul 27th, 2011
9
Fredom is a trap .
by china | Jul 15th, 2007
no new posts