Ending the siege
...On the Egyptian street, the clamour grows louder by the day. Palestinian liberation has found its way on to the agendas of parties across the political spectrum: right and left, new and old, religious and secular. Israeli flags burn in Tahrir Square, and the speeches which emphasise solidarity with Palestinians are cheered the loudest. When thousands march to Gaza on Nakba day, May 15th, it will be the closest the Arab wave has yet come to lapping at Israel's shores.
All signs indicate Egypt will continue to make Israel feel the cold. Already their foreign ministry has broken from Mubarak policy by supporting a unilaterally declared Palestinian state and demanding that the US follow suit.
More significantly, they can open the Rafah border and end Israel's siege of Gaza. Such a move would at a stroke remove a cornerstone of Israeli security policy, weakening their control and exposing them to even harsher international condemnation for the glaring disregard for human rights in the Strip. Such a move would present problems for Egypt too, but official statements indicate it is a case of when, rather than if, the Rafah border will be opened.
How will Israel react? Beyond the hysterical rhetoric, they have already taken concrete steps, withholding an $89million tax payment to the PA which will leave many state employees unpaid. They will hope the withdrawal of support will severely affect their long-time allies, who have become "terrorists" again at a stroke. Beyond disengaging with Palestinians, Israel will likely reduce involvement with the whole Arab region and rely even more heavily on US support....
