Which country is next after Egypt? Opinions?

[earth_as_one]

As the street party winds down in Egypt and yet another dictator bites the dust, the question on my mind is "Who is Next?".

The trigger was the recent rise in food prices which are now at a historic high and unlikely to go down any time soon due to crop destroying floods (Australia) and drought (China) combined with increased demand.

World Food Situation: FoodPricesIndex

Absolute dictatorships with extreme poverty and food insecurity combined with extreme wealth and corruption are probably the most vulnerable to revolution.

Countries which are uniformly poor where people have relative food security like Cuba and Ghana are probably immune.

Countries with extreme wealth, corruption and cronyism with moderate poverty like Saudi Arabia are most likely safe while the poorest can still afford food.

World's poorest nations:
http://www.aneki.com/countries.php?t=Poorest_Countries_in_the_World&table=fb129&places=*=*&order=asc&orderby=fb129.value&decimals=--&dependency=independent&number=all&cntdn=asc&r=-78-79-80-81-82-83-84-85-86-87-88-89-90-91-92-93-94&c=&measures=Country--GDP%20per%20capita&units=--$&file=poorest

Number of billionaires:
Top Countries with the Most Billionaires

Likely candidates in the Arab world include Algeria, Bahrain, Jordan, Libya, Syria and Yemen.

A clue about the future may be in the past. Here is a list of countries which experienced unrest during the 2007-2008 food crisis:
Bangladesh, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Haiti, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Mozambique, Pakistan, Myanmar, Panama, Philippines, Russia, Senegal, Somalia, Tajikistan, Yemen.
2007?2008 world food price crisis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[taxslave]

You forgot North Korea. That is a good bet when their not so beloved dictator croaks since there are so many with relatives in the south.

 

[earth_as_one]

Good point. North Korean is another good candidate for revolution. Its poor, has a history of food insecurity and a corrupt connected elite class just like Egypt.

 

[DaSleeper]

Good point. North Korean is another good candidate for revolution. Its poor, has a history of food insecurity and a corrupt connected elite class just like Egypt.

But is the army somewhat independent like in Egypt??

 

[taxslave]

But is the army somewhat independent like in Egypt??

One never knows when there is a power vacuum. The fact that even army personnel have relatives in the south may have an impact.

 

[Trotz]

Why would the military threaten their own privileged lifestyle? The DPRK military is well known for being involved in drug trafficking, gambling and counterfeiting in Macau.

When you look into the issue you find there is none at all. Upper class North Koreans send their children to study in Canada, Switzerland and the United Kingdom and receive naturalization, a lot of them posing under Chinese alias - as was the case with Kim Jong-nam whose Swiss passport was banned in Japan and he was caught attempting to sneak into Japan under a forged Dominican passport.

North Korea will be dissolved but not because of a popular revolution (even though Communist News Network / CNN will report it as such) but because the North Korean elites have hundreds of billions in safe bank accounts in Switzerland and because they want a South Korean passport and access to cheaper luxury goods.

 

[earth_as_one]

Thousands of Yemenis came out to protest today. Police attempt to disperse them with little success until about noon, when Yemenis typically break for qat (a mild drug which tends to mellow people out). Few protesters returned in the afternoon.
FEATURE-Qat addiction may stem Yemen protests | News by Country | Reuters

Sounds like they have the same problem as people trying to legalize marijuana...

 

[BaalsTears]

Why isn't Iran on the list of poll choices?

 

[petros]

Which one has the most refugees from Palestine and Iraq? I pick that one.

 

[lone wolf]

Why isn't Iran on the list of poll choices?

Funny, I don't see the United States either.... Guess your revolution got off to a bad start, eh?

 

[earth_as_one]

I guess we'll know over time which countries will fall.

Bahrain may have experienced a catalyzing moment:

Bahrain doctor badly hurt trying to give first aid

(Reuters) - Bahraini plastic surgeon Sadeq al-Karim volunteered to provide first aid for anti-government protesters but now lies unconscious in hospital himself, covered by a white sheet with an oxygen mask on his face.

Karim, with a fractured nose, was badly beaten when riot police stormed the protest camp in a Manama square early on Thursday. The camp was set up by demonstrators emboldened by popular revolts that toppled the rulers of Egypt and Tunisia...

Bahrain doctor badly hurt trying to give first aid | Reuters

Bahrain hosts an American carrier group...

 

[earth_as_one]

Protesters have died recently in Bahrain, Yemen and Libya.

Thousands attended funerals in Bahrain today which resulted when state police and security attacked protesters during the night.

...Riot police using clubs and tear gas broke up a crowd of protesters in the city's financial district in a pre-dawn swoop on Thursday, killing at least four people....


Al Jazeera's correspondent, who cannot be named for security reasons, reported from Manama on Friday that thousands of people observed the funerals of three people killed in the police raid on the protesters' tents in the city's Pearl Roundabout area.


Many of those present chanted slogans against Bahrain's ruling Al Khalifa family. They said they were both grief-stricken and angry at the heavy-handedness of the police, and that they were demanding that the international community take notice of what they call the brutality of the security forces....

Bahrain tense amid funerals - Middle East - Al Jazeera English



Bahrain will be next. Based on the way the government has handled this, more protests are likely. The government cannot defeat non-violent protests with violence. At best violence will drive the movement underground temporarily. Beating and killing people makes the unpopular dictator even less popular. As the size of the funerals show, violence will cause more people to join the movement.

Since the violence, the US has changed its tuned regarding Bahrain. Just like Egypt they initially sided with the dictator. Now that the protests have grown, they've switched sides. Judge for yourself:

In clearly siding with the demands of the pro-democracy uprising, Ms. Clinton said there needs to be “real, meaningful changes for the people” of Bahrain.... ...Bahrain’s Foreign Minister called the violence and gunfire that drove the protesters from Pearl Square “regrettable” but necessary... ...With protests spreading in Algeria, Libya, Yemen, and Bahrain, Ms. Clinton said “the United States strongly opposes the use of violence and strongly supports reform that moves toward democratic institution-building and economic openness.”

Clinton sides with Bahraini protesters - The Globe and Mail

While Bahrain is relatively small and lacks the energy resources of its neighbors, Bahrain is just a short causeway drive from Saudi Arabia

BTW, the largest protests in these countries tend to occur on Fridays after prayers.

 

[MHz]

I hadn't had a choice before this morning, now I would have to go with the Country that these two had 'retired to'. Testing a new batch or what?? and why didn't it happen BEFORE all those billions got transferred, looks like the days of letting their cohorts end up with some retirement funds for the 'family in posh exile' (as in Arafat's widow) is over, the cash stays with the original 'bribers' to be passed onto the next set of stooges. That was $150M just this week..... that we know of. (rather than to the poor it went to the Gov elite) The more things don't change, the more they stay the same. I wonder what these guys will do when it is arranged they go to that unnamed country for 'medical treatment'.
Ben Ali reportedly in coma after stroke - UPI.com
Egyptian Military Urged to Halt Torture of Detainees Kawther Salam

 

[earth_as_one]

Definitely Bahrain is next.

Government security forces used live ammunition against non-violent protesters again today.
Bahrain forces fire at protesters - Middle East - Al Jazeera English

Bahraini protesters prayed and knelt down down in the street in front of army vehicles after they were fired on by the army on Friday. (Hasan Jamali/Associated Press)

Read more: CBC News - World - Bahrain police fire on protesters
​

 

[CUBert]

Fresh protests hit Iraqi cities
Reports of deaths as thousands turn
out to demand better service delivery and jobs from government.

Violent protests have taken place at various locations in Iraq, with anti-government protesters rallying against corruption, poor basic services and high unemployment.
In Basra, the country's second largest city, about 1,000 people rallied on Friday, demanding better service delivery from the government, jobs and improved pensions.


They called for the provincial governor to resign, and blocked a bridge for an hour. Protesters shouted slogans saying that while Friday's protests would be peaceful, ones held in the future may not be.
"We're living in miserable conditions, no electricity, dirty, muddy streets. We have to make changes. We should not be silent," said Qais Jabbar, one of the protesters.
"I have filed my papers with the provincial council but have gotten no job until now," said Hussein Abdel, an unemployed 25-year-old. "There is corruption in Basra - they have to start taking care of this city and must stop making fake promises."


Fresh protests hit Iraqi cities - Middle East - Al Jazeera English

 

[petros]

Bahrain troops open fire on demonstrators, 50 wounded
MANAMA, Bahrain — Bahraini army troops on Friday opened fire on demonstrators marching toward a central square that has become a symbol of resistance to the government, attacking the crowd with live ammunition, rubber bullets and tear gas, witnesses reported.​

At least 50 people were wounded, according to two doctors at Salmaniya Medical Center in Manama.​

Wounded survivors of the clash said they had been participating in a peaceful march from a village in mourning for the victim of a fatal shooting on Monday. They marched from the village of Daih into Manama and planned to cross the side of Pearl Square, where protesters were swept out in a brutal attack early Thursday​

Read more: Bahrain troops open fire on demonstrators, 50 wounded

 

[darkbeaver]

Class Warfare in Wisconsin: 10 Things You Should Know

1. The deficit is a made-up crisis.
Like most states, Wisconsin is struggling in the recession, but the state government isn’t actually broke. The state legislature’s fiscal bureau estimated the state would end the year with a $121 million balance. Walker claims there is a $137 million deficit — but it is not because of an increase in worker wages or benefits. According to the Capital Times, it is because “Walker and his allies pushed through $140 million in new spending for corporate and special-interest groups in January.” Nice. A man-made “crisis” as an excuse to push neoliberal cutbacks: Shock Doctrine, anyone?
2. Even if there was a deficit, blame Wall Street — not the workers.

 

[Avro]

The next country that goes down will be the latest victom of AGW.

 

[Johnny Utah]

Good point. North Korean is another good candidate for revolution. Its poor, has a history of food insecurity and a corrupt connected elite class just like Egypt.

North Korea is in worse shape than any country in the Middle East, there's cities that have become Ghost Towns.

 

[petros]

The next country that goes down will be the latest victom of AGW.

By a frost?