Middle East War - Iran- Syria -Lebanon - Israel - US

[Goober]

Middle East War - Iran- Syria -Lebanon - Israel - US

War is coming to the Middle East -One way or another either this year or next and it will be messy but it is coming.

The new UN Sanctions allow for the boarding of Iranian Ships - Now we know that will not make them happy.

Neither Israel or the US will allow the Iranians to have Nukes

No US President will allow Iran to go Nuclear - Does not matter which party - Dem or Repub - Whoever did allow it would not hold the Office of President for the next 20-40 years. The Political fallout would be felt in every election from Congress, Senate and the Presidency.

Allowing Iran to have Nukes, the country that supports Terror Groups would and will not be tolerated by the US

Will talks work - Maybe - But I think Imanutjob has not only painted himself into a corner he is in conflict with the Great Ayatollah - Now who runs Iran. The power struggle between the Hardliners and the Ayatollah has been ongoing for quite some time.

Hezbollah has been rearmed and has newer longer range missiles capable of hitting any targets in Israel including the nuclear plant.

Hezbollah while possessing some Anti Aircraft missiles would cause a lot of grief for Israel as in the loss of Aircraft & Pilots - It will also be a land war as well.

Syria - Could be first on the list - Then Hezbollah -

While the Israeli's can do some damage it would take a sustained bombing campaign to destroy the majority of the facilities and the Israeli's do not have the aircraft or the ability to do this.

My opinion - It will be a US operation and Israel will be on the sidelines and told to wait until attacked. Then Israel will - Syria and the Hezbollah.

Obama will not authorize any Bombing campaign against Iran prior to the Nov Elections for fear of upsetting the doves in the Democratic Party

The Next Phase of the Middle East War

Asia Times Online :: Middle East News, Iraq, Iran current affairs

http://www.tehrantimes.com/Index_view.asp?code=224104

Does the Middle East Face an Israel-Lebanon Regional War? - TIME

GlobalSecurity.org - Reliable Military News and Military Information

America and Iran: Barack Obama's plan for Iran | The Economist

Thinking the Unthinkable: War With Iran - Walter Russell Mead's Blog - The American Interest

Calculating the Risk of War in Iran

 

[ironsides]

Very good topic, so far I have no possible scenario in mind, but I will soon.

 

[earth_as_one]

The US and Israel claim Iran is secretly building nuclear weapons. Yet they have no proof to back up their claims. Meanwhile the IAEA has been able to inspect any Iranian facility at any time and interview any Iranian for years now and they also have no evidence Iran is trying to build nukes. The IAEA has some minor issues regarding Iran's legal NPT compliant activities but nothing serious or consequential, unless minor book keeping errors and an empty building under construction count as nuclear weapons.

If Iran was secretly building nukes, then where are they? They've been refining uranium for at least seven years now. If they had secret nuclear facilities, that no one knows about, then they should have detonated their first nuke by now.

The US and Israel levelled the exact same type of baseless accusations at Iraq. They demanded Iraq prove they did not have WMD stockpiles or face the consequences. Since Iraq was unable to prove a negative (logical impossibility), the US invaded Iraq on Israel's behalf, took out the Iraqi government, installed a sham democracy, killed about a million people, tens of billions in oil went missing and the US military industrial complex made a killing off the war and the US oil companies run Iraq for profit. Afraid American taxpayers happily picked the multi-trillion dollar tab and gave the banks a sizable tip in 2008.

No wonder these people would like to convince the same afraid Americans that Iran is the exact same kind of threat requiring the same solution.

The US and Israel are using almost the exact same propaganda releases. It looks like all they've done is take the old propaganda regarding Iraq and did a search and replace of q's for n's. They obviously believe Americans are dumb enough to fall for the same scam twice and they are probably right. Few Americans have their own opinion. Why think for yourself, when the cable infotainment guy can do your thinking for you?

Yes Israel will soon face another war. It will either be started by them (sooner) or by Hezbollah (later). It will be a proxy war by Iran.

Israel isn't going to initiate a direct war with Iran because Iran has enough conventional weapons and rockets to lay waste to Israel. Iran isn't going to initiate a direct war with Israel, because Israel has enough nukes to lay waste to Iran. MAD will keep the peace.

I'm sure Israel would like to convince Americans to do their dirty work again like they did in Iraq. If the US did start a third war on a third front, the result would be economic suicide. Also, I suspect Iran has the ability to drop conventional weapons on American cities. If Americans or Israelis go nuclear, Iran will go chemical/biological.

What Iran would like to do is arm Hezbollah and other Israeli adversaries with weapons which can knock Israeli war planes out of the air at altitude. Israel's air superiority is the only thing stopping Hezbollah from starting a war now. But soon they will have the ability to neutralize Israel's airforce. Then its a ground war, and the fight will be much more even. Hezbollah proved they could stand toe to toe with the Israelis and give it as good as they get. What they couldn't stop was Israel from bombing Lebanese cities and civilian infrastructure. Hezbollah is busy building up stockpiles of missiles which can hit Tel Aviv. When the next war starts, if Israel bombs Lebanese cities, Hezbollah will bomb Israeli cities.

Most likely the next war will start soon after Hezbollah legally shoots down an Israeli warplane illegally in Lebanon's airspace, (A daily occurance), just to let Israel know they can no longer fly over Lebanon without risk. Israel will retaliate and then the war is on. If Israel ever nuked another country, I doubt even the US would continue to supply them with billions in arms and economic support each year leading to the beginning of the end for Israel.

By the way, I wish no ill will to Jews or Israelis in general. I don't care for people who commit atrocities, but most Jews and Israelis are ordinary people, who are just rying to live a decent life, work, raise a family, hang with their friends. The above is my honest opinion of Israel's future and I see nothing good resulting from Israel's ongoing war crimes and crimes against humanity. I would welcome to Canada any Israelis or Jews who are not criminals and would like to live in peace, rather than on the front line of a war zone. Our weather is cold, but we are warm and friendly in general. Discrimination based on race/religion/gender... is illegal here. If you come here, I'd just like to say "Welcome to Canada".

 

[talloola]

I voted 'no' war because I am hoping there will be 'no' war, but it has been a while now, so
i'm sure one of them over there is gearing up to attack somebody over there, it just seems to
be the way it is, the palestinians do not want peace unless israel leaves, israel will be watching
everyone over there and will not hisitate to defend itself at any time, they have a strong military
and will not take any crap from anyone, and that does keep the others from being too aggressive against
them, but who knows what iran is doing, they are too quiet lately, putting the finishing touches
on their nuclear party cake I guess, maybe they will be the ones to do the dirty deed against israel,
but they have to worry about the ramifications from the u.s. if they do, so maybe it's good that
everyone is watching everyone, might keep everyone behaving themselves for awhile anyway.

 

[Goober]

The US and Israel claim Iran is secretly building nuclear weapons. Yet they have no proof to back up their claims. Meanwhile the IAEA has been able to inspect any Iranian facility at any time and interview any Iranian for years now and they also have no evidence Iran is trying to build nukes. The IAEA has some minor issues regarding Iran's legal NPT compliant activities but nothing serious or consequential, unless minor book keeping errors and an empty building under construction count as nuclear weapons.

If Iran was secretly building nukes, then where are they? They've been refining uranium for at least seven years now. If they had secret nuclear facilities, that no one knows about, then they should have detonated their first nuke by now.

The US and Israel levelled the exact same type of baseless accusations at Iraq. They demanded Iraq prove they did not have WMD stockpiles or face the consequences. Since Iraq was unable to prove a negative (logical impossibility), the US invaded Iraq on Israel's behalf, took out the Iraqi government, installed a sham democracy, killed about a million people, tens of billions in oil went missing and the US military industrial complex made a killing off the war and the US oil companies run Iraq for profit. Afraid American taxpayers happily picked the multi-trillion dollar tab and gave the banks a sizable tip in 2008.

No wonder these people would like to convince the same afraid Americans that Iran is the exact same kind of threat requiring the same solution.

The US and Israel are using almost the exact same propaganda releases. It looks like all they've done is take the old propaganda regarding Iraq and did a search and replace of q's for n's. They obviously believe Americans are dumb enough to fall for the same scam twice and they are probably right. Few Americans have their own opinion. Why think for yourself, when the cable infotainment guy can do your thinking for you?

Yes Israel will soon face another war. It will either be started by them (sooner) or by Hezbollah (later). It will be a proxy war by Iran.

Israel isn't going to initiate a direct war with Iran because Iran has enough conventional weapons and rockets to lay waste to Israel. Iran isn't going to initiate a direct war with Israel, because Israel has enough nukes to lay waste to Iran. MAD will keep the peace.

I'm sure Israel would like to convince Americans to do their dirty work again like they did in Iraq. If the US did start a third war on a third front, the result would be economic suicide. Also, I suspect Iran has the ability to drop conventional weapons on American cities. If Americans or Israelis go nuclear, Iran will go chemical/biological.

What Iran would like to do is arm Hezbollah and other Israeli adversaries with weapons which can knock Israeli war planes out of the air at altitude. Israel's air superiority is the only thing stopping Hezbollah from starting a war now. But soon they will have the ability to neutralize Israel's airforce. Then its a ground war, and the fight will be much more even. Hezbollah proved they could stand toe to toe with the Israelis and give it as good as they get. What they couldn't stop was Israel from bombing Lebanese cities and civilian infrastructure. Hezbollah is busy building up stockpiles of missiles which can hit Tel Aviv. When the next war starts, if Israel bombs Lebanese cities, Hezbollah will bomb Israeli cities.

Most likely the next war will start soon after Hezbollah legally shoots down an Israeli warplane illegally in Lebanon's airspace, (A daily occurance), just to let Israel know they can no longer fly over Lebanon without risk. Israel will retaliate and then the war is on. If Israel ever nuked another country, I doubt even the US would continue to supply them with billions in arms and economic support each year leading to the beginning of the end for Israel.

By the way, I wish no ill will to Jews or Israelis in general. I don't care for people who commit atrocities, but most Jews and Israelis are ordinary people, who are just rying to live a decent life, work, raise a family, hang with their friends. The above is my honest opinion of Israel's future and I see nothing good resulting from Israel's ongoing war crimes and crimes against humanity. I would welcome to Canada any Israelis or Jews who are not criminals and would like to live in peace, rather than on the front line of a war zone. Our weather is cold, but we are warm and friendly in general. Discrimination based on race/religion/gender... is illegal here. If you come here, I'd just like to say "Welcome to Canada".

Should ahve ended that with I have jewish Friends - We know where Jews fit into you logic - Somewheres between unloading tha rail cars and the gas chambers - I will rebut the rest later. BE is still your new monicker. You Pal uber Goober.

I voted 'no' war because I am hoping there will be 'no' war, but it has been a while now, so
i'm sure one of them over there is gearing up to attack somebody over there, it just seems to
be the way it is, the palestinians do not want peace unless israel leaves, israel will be watching
everyone over there and will not hisitate to defend itself at any time, they have a strong military
and will not take any crap from anyone, and that does keep the others from being too aggressive against
them, but who knows what iran is doing, they are too quiet lately, putting the finishing touches
on their nuclear party cake I guess, maybe they will be the ones to do the dirty deed against israel,
but they have to worry about the ramifications from the u.s. if they do, so maybe it's good that
everyone is watching everyone, might keep everyone behaving themselves for awhile anyway.

When they opened Pandora's box, just before they closed the lid tightly, hope was trapped inside.

 

[Bar Sinister]

There will be no US initiated war with Iran with Obama in power, and Israel is unlikely to act on its own. Obama already has two Bush initiated wars to end. He does not need another, and he does not have the sort of mentality to carry out wars of aggression. Until Iran actually carries out a nuclear test, nothing is going to happen.

As for Hezbollah, it is incapable of operating any sort of military operation beyond a minor terrorist campaign. Ditto for Syria.

 

[MHz]

Think how much money Russia will make selling the S-series of air defense systems after a botched attempted air strike deep inside Iran. One would have to assume when you can track 100 hostiles (each system) then you are going to have that many missals plus re-loads. So it has been advertised that 3 systems have been delivered.

Goober, can you direct me to the poll question that asks "Does Iran have/want a nuclear weapon?" ?

 

[petros]

The rocket program is the real target. Space is high ground and you always want that advantage even if it means illegal air strikes to keep a foe from even making the first step.

 

[wulfie68]

There will be no US initiated war with Iran with Obama in power, and Israel is unlikely to act on its own. Obama already has two Bush initiated wars to end. He does not need another, and he does not have the sort of mentality to carry out wars of aggression. Until Iran actually carries out a nuclear test, nothing is going to happen.

As for Hezbollah, it is incapable of operating any sort of military operation beyond a minor terrorist campaign. Ditto for Syria.

I agree Obama doesn't want to go to war with Iran and won't go easily, but I think Iran doing some type of nuclear test or some other confirmation of their program heading towards weaponry would force his hand.

Quite frankly, although I am not a huge fan of some of the injustices the Israelis commit on the Palestinians, I am frightened by the rhetoric that continually comes out of Tehran advocating the destruction of Israel. For all the criticism of the "big bad USA" I have not heard of their gov't wanting or supporting the destruction of other nations. We can argue that they have issues with certain regimes or types of regimes, but that doesn't equate to the type of genocide that the Iranian propaganda espouses. The same can be said for pretty much all the members of the Nuclear Weapons Club (with the possible exception of North Korea but they seem to want to use the fact that they have this technology as a means of blackmail for economic aid more than anything else).

As for a war, it wouldn't have to be a large scale ground operation: think back to the the First Gulf War aka Kuwaiti conflict in 1990 where ground troops were used to mop up after the missiles and airstrikes pretty much anhiliated the Iraqi military. The US/Israel/whomever doesn't have to stay and occupy, just get rid of the military (or at least the air defense capability of it) and flatten a few key installations/areas. Now we can say that this model didn't work too well in the long run (in Iraq) but there is a different social dynamic with the Iranians: they have a younger and more highly educated population (a lot of ex-pats chased away by the Imams who would love to go home and rebuild their country) and are more ripe for the type of change the US gov't hoped would occur in Iraq on its own in the 90s.

I truly hope nothing occurs but I don't know. The tensions over there seem so high and the Russians and Chinese seem not to care about getting involved and using their diplomatic weight, save for making a few political points wherever they can and at anyone's expense.

 

[earth_as_one]

Regarding Iranian leader's comments about "wiping Israel off the map":

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Israel - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Many news sources repeated the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting statement as though Ahmadinejad had demanded that "Israel must be wiped off the map",[5][6] an English idiom which means to "cause a place to stop existing",[7] or to "obliterate totally",[8] or "destroy completely".[9] News sources currently continue to repeat this claim.[10]

Ahmadinejad's phrase was " بايد از صفحه روزگار محو شود " according to the text published on the President's Office's website, and was a quote of Ayatollah Khomeini.[11]

The translation presented by IRNA has been challenged by Arash Norouzi, who says the statement "wiped off the map" was never made and that Ahmadinejad did not refer to the nation or land mass of Israel, but to the "regime occupying Jerusalem". Norouzi translated the original Persian to English, word for word, with the result, "the Imam said this regime occupying Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time."[12] Juan Cole, a University of Michigan Professor of Modern Middle East and South Asian History, agrees that Ahmadinejad's statement should be translated as, "the Imam said that this regime occupying Jerusalem (een rezhim-e eshghalgar-e qods) must [vanish from] the page of time (bayad az safheh-ye ruzgar mahv shavad).[13]

The Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) translates the phrase similarly, as "be eliminated from the pages of history."[14]

According to Cole, "Ahmadinejad did not say he was going to 'wipe Israel off the map' because no such idiom exists in Persian". Instead, "He did say he hoped its regime, i.e., a Jewish-Zionist state occupying Jerusalem, would collapse."[15]

While Ahmadinejad's statement isn't calling for Jewish extermination as widely and repeatedly misquoted, it isn't exactly friendly either.

Iran's position regarding Israel is to let the issues be settled by referendums. I recommend people read Ahmadinejad's statements for themselves, rather than relying on out of context mistranslations for an informed opinion.

President Ahmadinejad Delivers Remarks at Columbia University
CQ Transcripts Wire
Monday, September 24, 2007
President Ahmadinejad Delivers Remarks at Columbia University

IMO, Ahmadinejad is a politician who will say whatever he thinks will lead to him staying in power. I don't believe he is hostile to Jews, but he is hostile toward Zionism. I'd also like to point out that the Iran, unlike the US and Israel, has never started a war.

 

[CDNBear]

Regarding Iranian leader's comments about "wiping Israel off the map":

Here comes the white wash...

While Ahmadinejad's statement isn't calling for Jewish extermination as widely and repeatedly misquoted, it isn't exactly friendly either.

Iran's position regarding Israel is to let the issues be settled by referendums. I recommend people read Ahmadinejad's statements for themselves, rather than relying on out of context mistranslations for an informed opinion.

And there it is...

Although I never did buy the whole media spin on this speech, I ended up formulating my own opinion, after reading it a couple times and trying to find the wiggle room to take it any other way.

But weighing that speech against Iran's refusal to acknowledge Israel, the heavy anti Jewish propaganda in Iran, and Ahmadinejad's condemnation of any Islamic state that negotiates anything but all out war with Israel, leads me to be a little more critical of his statements then you, obviously.

Our dear Imam (referring to Ayatollah Khomeini) said that the occupying regime must be wiped off the map for great justice and this was a very wise statement. We cannot compromise over the issue of Palestine. Is it possible to create a new front in the heart of an old front. This would be a defeat and whoever accepts the legitimacy of this regime has in fact, signed the defeat of the Islamic world. Our dear Imam targeted the heart of the world oppressor in his struggle, meaning the occupying regime. I have no doubt that the new wave that has started in Palestine, and we witness it in the Islamic world too, will eliminate this disgraceful stain from the Islamic world.[2]

There really is no other way to take that, than a complete threat to wipe Israel off the map. Unless of course you're blinded to some pretty incontrovertible facts, which you've sufficiently proven to be so.

IMO, Ahmadinejad is a politician who will say whatever he thinks will lead to him staying in power. I don't believe he is hostile to Jews, but he is hostile toward Zionism. I'd also like to point out that the Iran, unlike the US and Israel, has never started a war.

Neither did Germany, until they started one...:roll:

 

[earth_as_one]

Ahmadinejad's phrase was " بايد از صفحه روزگار محو شود "<br><br>It doesn't translate to "I want to wipe Israel off the map".  It translates literally to " "the Imam said that this regime occupying Jerusalem must [vanish from] the page of time".  When questioned about this fuurther Ahmadinejad claimed his intent was to call for an end to the Zionism or the Zionist regime in the same way other Iran leaders made the exact same statement regarding the Soviet Union, which was never interpreted in that case as a call to exterminate Russians.
I recommend people trying to figure this out, read the academic analysis in the wiki-link I provided.

Here is the link again:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmou...2Vanish_from_the_pages_of_time.22_translation


If you read that analysis, apply a little critical thought, its become clear who is being honest and who is being deliberately manipulative.

 

[CDNBear]

I thought I was on your iggy list...

Ahmadinejad's phrase was " بايد از صفحه روزگار محو شود "<br><br>It doesn't translate to "I want to wipe Israel off the map".  It translates literally to " "the Imam said that this regime occupying Jerusalem must [vanish from] the page of time".  When questioned about this fuurther Ahmadinejad claimed his intent was to call for an end to the Zionism or the Zionist regime in the same way other Iran leaders made the exact same statement regarding the Soviet Union, which was never interpreted in that case as a call to exterminate Russians.

When Ahmadinejad is asked about Israel, he continuously calls Israel the Zionist state, thus referring to all Israeli's a Zionists.

In a September 2008 interview with Juan Gonzalez and Amy Goodman on the radio and television program Democracy Now!, Ahmadinejad was asked: "If the Palestinian leaders agree to a two-state solution, could Iran live with an Israeli state?" and replied

If they [the Palestinians] want to keep the Zionists, they can stay ... Whatever the people decide, we will respect it. I mean, it's very much in correspondence with our proposal to allow Palestinian people to decide through free referendums.[32]
​

A fact I'm sure you would care to ignore.

I recommend people trying to figure this out, read the academic analysis in the wiki-link I provided.

Here is the link again:
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Israel - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

And if you're really trying to figure it out, contiue reading where eao stopped and see what Iranian translators say about the whitewashed version eao foists as fact...

But translators in Tehran who work for the president's office and the foreign ministry disagree with them. All official translations of Mr. Ahmadinejad's statement, including a description of it on his website, refer to wiping Israel away. Sohrab Mahdavi, one of Iran’s most prominent translators, and Siamak Namazi, managing director of a Tehran consulting firm, who is bilingual, both say “wipe off” or “wipe away” is more accurate than "vanish" because the Persian verb is active and transitive.

Sad but true facts, some people will manipulate the thruth, to keep that silly ideology they love and cherish so much. Even if it means selling their credibility, to the lowest bidder.

If you read that analysis, apply a little critical thought, its become clear who is being honest and who is being deliberately manipulative.

Absolutely correct.

I'm being honest, and you're being manipulative.

It's about time you conceded to something.

 

[Goober]

Ahmadinejad's phrase was " بايد از صفحه روزگار محو شود "<br><br>It doesn't translate to "I want to wipe Israel off the map".  It translates literally to " "the Imam said that this regime occupying Jerusalem must [vanish from] the page of time".  When questioned about this fuurther Ahmadinejad claimed his intent was to call for an end to the Zionism or the Zionist regime in the same way other Iran leaders made the exact same statement regarding the Soviet Union, which was never interpreted in that case as a call to exterminate Russians.
I recommend people trying to figure this out, read the academic analysis in the wiki-link I provided.

Here is the link again:
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Israel - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


If you read that analysis, apply a little critical thought, its become clear who is being honest and who is being deliberately manipulative.

EAO
Do some checking on the net and you will find a number of powerful Govt Officials up to and including a variety of Preidents of Iran stating the call for the total destruction of isreal.
Former Iranian President Rafsanjani on Using a Nuclear Bomb Against Israel

Nuclear Weapons Can Solve the Israel ProblemRafsanjani said that Muslims must surround colonialism and force them [the colonialists] to see whether Israel is beneficial to them or not. If one day, he said, the world of Islam comes to possess the weapons currently in Israel's possession [meaning nuclear weapons] - on that day this method of global arrogance would come to a dead end. This, he said, is because the use of a nuclear bomb in Israel will leave nothing on the ground, whereas it will only damage the world of Islam.

 

[CDNBear]

EAO
Do some checking on the net and you will find a number of powerful Govt Officials up to and including a variety of Preidents of Iran stating the call for the total destruction of isreal.
Former Iranian President Rafsanjani on Using a Nuclear Bomb Against Israel

Nuclear Weapons Can Solve the Israel ProblemRafsanjani said that Muslims must surround colonialism and force them [the colonialists] to see whether Israel is beneficial to them or not. If one day, he said, the world of Islam comes to possess the weapons currently in Israel's possession [meaning nuclear weapons] - on that day this method of global arrogance would come to a dead end. This, he said, is because the use of a nuclear bomb in Israel will leave nothing on the ground, whereas it will only damage the world of Islam.

But Goober, that doesn't support eao's ideology, therefore it is true.

 

[Goober]

But Goober, that doesn't support eao's ideology, therefore it is true.

Bear - EAO is not talented enough to have an ideology - Gotta have the smarts ya know - and he Don't as they say back home where i am from - He Jes don't have it. Smarts that is. Easily lead. Lacking character in my humble opinion

Now to be one sided and ignore facts, truth, that is the category that EAO falls into - Lemmings - I wonder if Lemmings are Halal?

 

[CDNBear]

Now to be one sided and ignore facts, truth, that is the category that EAO falls into - Lemmings - I wonder if Lemmings are Halal?

Only when led to slaughter properly...

 

[petros]

"Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: OK, we may have a few gays but we still hate Israel"

 

[CDNBear]

"Mahmoud Ahmadabad: OK, we may have a few gays but we still hate Israel"

Let's just clear something up, so eao doesn't have to correct it later...

Ahmadinejad doesn't hate Israel, he hates Zion.

Where is Zion you ask?

 

[petros]

It's a park on the Mount of Olives? Old Jews wanting to sit in a park? Next thing you know they'll want to keep with tradition and go bob around in the Dead Sea and burn off their piles from sitting all day.