The first ever survey of postal votes has shown that David Cameron's Conservatives are on course to win the May 6th British General Election.
A BPIX poll for The Mail on Sunday shows the Tory leader is on course to win the Election with the highest popular vote and the most MPs.
The survey indicates that Mr Cameron is ahead in the postal vote tally on 34 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats on 30 and Labour trailing on 27.
If these figures are repeated in the election, the Tories would have 271 MPs, Labour 242 and the Liberal Democrats 106.
However, this would still mean that Cameron would NOT get an overall majority. There would be a hung parliament, the first in Britain since 1974 and the possibility of Labour trying to cling on to power by being part of a coalition government, possibly alongside the Lib Dems, and David Cameron trying to oust Prime Minister Gordon Brown by also trying to form a government with the Lib Dems.
650 MPs, representing 650 constituencies (what Canadians call electoral districts or ridings), are to be elected, meaning a party has to have at least 326 seats in the Commons to have a majority.
Unlike many other European nations, Britain doesn't usually have coalition governments, and many British voters are terrified at such a prospect. A big majority say it would lead to weak government and too many backroom deals.
The survey also shows that 27% of people want a Tory government, 24% want a Labour/Liberal coalition, 16% want a Labour government and 14% want a Conservative/Liberal pact.
And most surveys conducted in the aftermath of the second live leaders' debate, beamed live on Sky from Bristol on Thursday, showed Cameron to be the winner.
Support for the Liberal Democrats surged after the first televised Leaders' Debate, shown on 15th April on ITV and held in Manchester. This was probably due to the fact that as the Lib Dems are very much the smallest of the three main parties, their leader Nick Clegg was something of an unknown.
But support for the Lib Dems has fallen in recent days after Clegg revealed several of his party's loony policies, including their support for an amnesty for illegal immigrants, releasing prisoners, getting rid of Britain's nuclear weapons and ditching the Pound to join the Euro.
Postal vote poll puts comeback kid Cameron at door of Downing Street
By Simon Walters
25th April 2010
Daily Mail
David Cameron has one foot in Downing Street according to the first-ever survey of millions of postal votes to be cast in the next few days.
A BPIX poll for The Mail on Sunday shows the Tory leader is on course to win the Election with the highest popular vote and the most MPs.
But he looks set to fall short of an overall majority, plunging Britain into the uncertainty of a hung Parliament – a prospect that appears to fill voters with increasing alarm.
The BPIX poll suggests that a record one in five voters intends to vote by post. Millions of postal voting forms dropped through letterboxes over the weekend and some people have already returned them. The remainder are expected to do so before the end of this week.
The survey indicates that Mr Cameron is ahead in the postal vote tally on 34 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats on 30 and Labour trailing on 27. The figures are a near mirror image of the overall BPIX poll which also shows the Tories on 34, Lib Dems 30 and Labour on 26, one point lower than its postal voting support.
If these figures are repeated on May 6, Mr Cameron would have 271 MPs, Gordon Brown 242 and Nick Clegg 106. It would lead to scramble by Labour to cling on to power by trying to form an alliance with Mr Clegg, and the prospect of Mr Cameron having to make a rival offer to the Lib Dems to oust Mr Brown.
But as the seeming inevitability of a hung Parliament draws closer, it has sparked a backlash. A big majority say it would lead to weak government and too many backroom deals.
Asked if there should be a second election to find an outright winner, voters said ‘yes’ by the overwhelming margin of two to one.
A rash of opinion polls for the Sunday papers suggested the election remains a three-horse race but the field is widening, with Conservatives extending their lead over Lib Dems and Labour falling a little further behind.
The surveys all pointed towards a hung parliament, though Ipsos Mori in the News of the World had the Lib Dems slipping back into third place with just 23 per cent - the sort of figure they were recording before Mr Clegg's first triumphant TV debate.
Others had Tories on 32 per cent-35 per cent, Lib Dems on 28 per cent-32 per cent and Labour on 23 per cent-28 per cent.
CLEGG FAMILY'S 20-ROOM SKI CHALET
Enlarge
This is the superb Alpine holiday home where Nick Clegg escapes from the pressures of political life to relax with his family.
The 20-room chalet is in the fashionable Swiss ski resort of Davos.
The Liberal Democrat leader and his family spent several days there over the February half-term.
The traditionally-designed mountain hideaway is owned by Mr Clegg’s Dutch-born mother Hermance and her relatives in Holland.
As well as the Davos bolt hole, Mr Clegg also uses his father’s chateau in the Bordeaux region of France.
Mr Cameron’s improved performance in Thursday’s second televised leaders’ debate has boosted his fortunes, which, this time last week, suffered a serious wobble as the ‘Clegg Effect’ shot the Lib Dems into the lead for the first time in a century.
Although Mr Clegg has dropped back slightly since his sensational debut, he remains remarkably popular. The only worry for him is that the BPIX survey shows Labour and Tory grassroots voters are less likely to defect in the last ten days of the campaign compared to Lib Dems.
Around six out of ten Labour and Tory voters say they are ‘not at all likely’ to change their vote before May 6. Only four of ten Lib Dems show the same commitment. It could spark an attack by Labour and Tory chiefs on the Lib Dems’ soft underbelly.
There were reports of panic at Labour’s high command as the party ordered a dramatic change in its tactics to try to halt the slump in support for Mr Brown.
Mr Cameron must push his party’s standing up by another three points and hope support dips for Labour and the Lib Dems to be able to secure an overall Commons majority.
As the fear of a hung Parliament grows, so too does support among the public for a clear result.
Asked what result they would prefer on May 6, the most favoured outcome was a thumping majority for the Tories.
BPIX pollster Professor Paul Whiteley said: ‘The postal voting figures give a good guide to what is likely to happen on May 6 and suggest no one party or leader may win outright.
‘After the sudden change in ratings caused by Nick Clegg’s performance on television, one should not rule out another big surprise, but it does not seem likely. A hung Parliament seems a near certainty but it is hard to say who will be Prime Minister.’
Despite the progress made by Mr Cameron, the BPIX poll says Mr Clegg won the second debate. He is still regarded as more charismatic, honest and relaxed than his rivals.
However, now voters know more about his policies, they do not like all they see.
Reports about the party’s support for an amnesty for illegal immigrants, scrapping Trident and releasing large numbers of prisoners have taken their toll.
* BPIX interviewed 2,139 people online on Friday and yesterday, with 465 saying they would vote by post.
dailymail.co.uk
A BPIX poll for The Mail on Sunday shows the Tory leader is on course to win the Election with the highest popular vote and the most MPs.
The survey indicates that Mr Cameron is ahead in the postal vote tally on 34 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats on 30 and Labour trailing on 27.
If these figures are repeated in the election, the Tories would have 271 MPs, Labour 242 and the Liberal Democrats 106.
However, this would still mean that Cameron would NOT get an overall majority. There would be a hung parliament, the first in Britain since 1974 and the possibility of Labour trying to cling on to power by being part of a coalition government, possibly alongside the Lib Dems, and David Cameron trying to oust Prime Minister Gordon Brown by also trying to form a government with the Lib Dems.
650 MPs, representing 650 constituencies (what Canadians call electoral districts or ridings), are to be elected, meaning a party has to have at least 326 seats in the Commons to have a majority.
Unlike many other European nations, Britain doesn't usually have coalition governments, and many British voters are terrified at such a prospect. A big majority say it would lead to weak government and too many backroom deals.
The survey also shows that 27% of people want a Tory government, 24% want a Labour/Liberal coalition, 16% want a Labour government and 14% want a Conservative/Liberal pact.
And most surveys conducted in the aftermath of the second live leaders' debate, beamed live on Sky from Bristol on Thursday, showed Cameron to be the winner.
Support for the Liberal Democrats surged after the first televised Leaders' Debate, shown on 15th April on ITV and held in Manchester. This was probably due to the fact that as the Lib Dems are very much the smallest of the three main parties, their leader Nick Clegg was something of an unknown.
But support for the Lib Dems has fallen in recent days after Clegg revealed several of his party's loony policies, including their support for an amnesty for illegal immigrants, releasing prisoners, getting rid of Britain's nuclear weapons and ditching the Pound to join the Euro.
Postal vote poll puts comeback kid Cameron at door of Downing Street
By Simon Walters
25th April 2010
Daily Mail
David Cameron has one foot in Downing Street according to the first-ever survey of millions of postal votes to be cast in the next few days.
A BPIX poll for The Mail on Sunday shows the Tory leader is on course to win the Election with the highest popular vote and the most MPs.
But he looks set to fall short of an overall majority, plunging Britain into the uncertainty of a hung Parliament – a prospect that appears to fill voters with increasing alarm.
David Cameron delivers a speech at a campaign rally at Palmer's College in Thurrock, Essex, yesterday morning. He took the afternoon off campaigning to attend his sister's wedding
The BPIX poll suggests that a record one in five voters intends to vote by post. Millions of postal voting forms dropped through letterboxes over the weekend and some people have already returned them. The remainder are expected to do so before the end of this week.
The survey indicates that Mr Cameron is ahead in the postal vote tally on 34 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats on 30 and Labour trailing on 27. The figures are a near mirror image of the overall BPIX poll which also shows the Tories on 34, Lib Dems 30 and Labour on 26, one point lower than its postal voting support.
If these figures are repeated on May 6, Mr Cameron would have 271 MPs, Gordon Brown 242 and Nick Clegg 106. It would lead to scramble by Labour to cling on to power by trying to form an alliance with Mr Clegg, and the prospect of Mr Cameron having to make a rival offer to the Lib Dems to oust Mr Brown.
But as the seeming inevitability of a hung Parliament draws closer, it has sparked a backlash. A big majority say it would lead to weak government and too many backroom deals.
Asked if there should be a second election to find an outright winner, voters said ‘yes’ by the overwhelming margin of two to one.
A rash of opinion polls for the Sunday papers suggested the election remains a three-horse race but the field is widening, with Conservatives extending their lead over Lib Dems and Labour falling a little further behind.
The surveys all pointed towards a hung parliament, though Ipsos Mori in the News of the World had the Lib Dems slipping back into third place with just 23 per cent - the sort of figure they were recording before Mr Clegg's first triumphant TV debate.
Others had Tories on 32 per cent-35 per cent, Lib Dems on 28 per cent-32 per cent and Labour on 23 per cent-28 per cent.
CLEGG FAMILY'S 20-ROOM SKI CHALET
Enlarge
This is the superb Alpine holiday home where Nick Clegg escapes from the pressures of political life to relax with his family.
The 20-room chalet is in the fashionable Swiss ski resort of Davos.
The Liberal Democrat leader and his family spent several days there over the February half-term.
The traditionally-designed mountain hideaway is owned by Mr Clegg’s Dutch-born mother Hermance and her relatives in Holland.
As well as the Davos bolt hole, Mr Clegg also uses his father’s chateau in the Bordeaux region of France.
Mr Cameron’s improved performance in Thursday’s second televised leaders’ debate has boosted his fortunes, which, this time last week, suffered a serious wobble as the ‘Clegg Effect’ shot the Lib Dems into the lead for the first time in a century.
Although Mr Clegg has dropped back slightly since his sensational debut, he remains remarkably popular. The only worry for him is that the BPIX survey shows Labour and Tory grassroots voters are less likely to defect in the last ten days of the campaign compared to Lib Dems.
Around six out of ten Labour and Tory voters say they are ‘not at all likely’ to change their vote before May 6. Only four of ten Lib Dems show the same commitment. It could spark an attack by Labour and Tory chiefs on the Lib Dems’ soft underbelly.
There were reports of panic at Labour’s high command as the party ordered a dramatic change in its tactics to try to halt the slump in support for Mr Brown.
Mr Cameron must push his party’s standing up by another three points and hope support dips for Labour and the Lib Dems to be able to secure an overall Commons majority.
As the fear of a hung Parliament grows, so too does support among the public for a clear result.
Asked what result they would prefer on May 6, the most favoured outcome was a thumping majority for the Tories.
BPIX pollster Professor Paul Whiteley said: ‘The postal voting figures give a good guide to what is likely to happen on May 6 and suggest no one party or leader may win outright.
‘After the sudden change in ratings caused by Nick Clegg’s performance on television, one should not rule out another big surprise, but it does not seem likely. A hung Parliament seems a near certainty but it is hard to say who will be Prime Minister.’
Lonesome tonight? Gordon Brown with Elvis impersonator Mark Wright and Sarah Brown at Lodge Park Technology College in Corby today
Despite the progress made by Mr Cameron, the BPIX poll says Mr Clegg won the second debate. He is still regarded as more charismatic, honest and relaxed than his rivals.
However, now voters know more about his policies, they do not like all they see.
Reports about the party’s support for an amnesty for illegal immigrants, scrapping Trident and releasing large numbers of prisoners have taken their toll.
* BPIX interviewed 2,139 people online on Friday and yesterday, with 465 saying they would vote by post.
dailymail.co.uk
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