Gold to hit $1,350 - $1,400 by late Spring - John Embry

[Johnnny]

Mineweb - Gold to hit $1,350 - $1,400 by late Spring - John Embry - GOLD ANALYSIS

Gold should continue to consolidate over the next few weeks but, the next big move is likely to be up.
This is the view of Sprott Asset Management's chief investment strategist John Embry, who says he is looking for the price of the yellow metal to hit around $1,350 to $1,400 by late spring.
Speaking on the inaugural Mineweb Gold Weekly Podcast, Embry says the recent downward trend seen in the gold price is nothing more than a healthy correction.
"Gold had a 300 dollar plus run in US dollars from July into the early part of December and it has come under heavy pressure subsequently. It certainly has engendered immense bearishness amongst the commentators which is actually good from my perspective. I think the fundamentals are undisturbed and as a result it is setting up for another strong buy."
Asked about the link between gold and the US dollar, especially the recent strengthening of the dollar against the euro, Embry, says, while there is often a very clear link, the problems in the US and, by extension, the US dollar, are everywhere - especially given the huge budget deficit it is sitting with - so "the idea that one should run away from gold and into the US dollar because it is strengthening against the euro and several other currencies to me is actually preposterous.
"The idea that the US dollar is a safe haven today is flat out wrong," he added, "and that is going to be one of the major factors that are going to change the perceptions in the gold market going forward."
Another reason for Embry's conviction about bullion's next move, is the increasing role gold will play as a protection against monetary debasement.
"I think a lot of the world's wealth is figuring out that we have little choice given the debt problems in the world and the resultant unlimited creation of money and so I think there is a solid investment bid in the market for gold."
He adds, that concerns that have been raised about the possible impact the jewellery market is likely to have on the long term rise of gold because, he says, "all great bull markets in precious metals come from their reestablishment as money."

 

[SirJosephPorter]

I think gold still continues to be a good investment. I don’t have a lot of money in gold (I used to have several gold coins, such as Krugerands, Canadian Maple leaf etc.; the wife used them to make jewellery. It still retains its value though).

However, one has to be careful when one listens to experts. Experts usually predict that what has been happening will continue to happen. Since gold is rising, experts will keep on claiming that it will continue rising without end. I remember when NASDAQ was 5500, experts were confidently talking about it rising to 6000 and 6500 shortly (in the event, it plunged to 1100).

So one has to make up one’s one mind as to when gold has reached the top and get out while the getting is good. The 2002 meltdown demonstrated vividly that listening to experts is a sure way of losing money.

 

[ironsides]

Are you still buying gold SJP I've been a little (a lot) timid this past year, just holding right now. I do think it will reach $2000 if the market takes another big hit though. Unlike the NASDAQ, gold has been pretty stable when governments do not try and regulate it since way back (middle ages or farther). It will always be able to buy you a loaf of bread.

 

[GreenFish66]

John Embry would say that..lol...Gold is where you go when you have no confidence in the market...So yeah, I suppose gold is the place to be ..Until easter .When the green starts to grow again.Then watch the Easter bunny don't take your Golden nest egg ,mix it ,hide it in with all his gold painted brown ones(not chocolate) ..All in his 1 basket ...
8O:?:

 

[SirJosephPorter]

Are you still buying gold SJP I've been a little (a lot) timid this past year, just holding right now. I do think it will reach $2000 if the market takes another big hit though. Unlike the NASDAQ, gold has been pretty stable when governments do not try and regulate it since way back (middle ages or farther). It will always be able to buy you a loaf of bread.

Gold is not an important part of my portfolio, ironsides. I have some gold, but it does not constitute an appreciable percentage of my portfolio. I mostly stick to stocks, bonds, mutual funds etc.

But those who invested in gold certainly have done very well. But then it is important to remember that at one point, gold used to be around 800 $, then it fell to around 260 $. Now it is back up over a 1000 $. So gold is not the magic bullet of investing. One has to decide when gold has reached the peak and get out.

 

[Kreskin]

I own a gold stock that has served me well. Not sure when to bail out. So far about 400%+ in the last year. I'll probably hold it long enough to sell at breakeven.

 

[SirJosephPorter]

I own a gold stock that has served me well. Not sure when to bail out. So far about 400%+ in the last year. I'll probably hold it long enough to sell at breakeven.

Break even? What does that mean? Does that mean that soon after you bought the stock, it plunged to less than 25% of its value, so that even after rising 400% last year, it still has not broken even?

 

[petros]

Au baby! $2000 a troy Oz is just around the corner.

 

[earth_as_one]

Gold tumbled today:

Rumors has it, Greece, Spain and Portugal will sell gold to finance their debt

 

[Kreskin]

Break even? What does that mean? Does that mean that soon after you bought the stock, it plunged to less than 25% of its value, so that even after rising 400% last year, it still has not broken even?

No, I'll wait until it drops enough

 

[taxslave]

B.C. Bud would be a better investment. Gold has dropped in the past few days while Bud holds it's value and is far easier to trade.

 

[ironsides]

If gold drops to $1000, buy it. That is supposed to be the :cya::violent1::knob: banks majic number to buy.,

 

[Tonington]

Gold can't beat interest bearing checking accounts after 30 years.

Gold Can’t Beat Checking Accounts 30 Years After Peak (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

In the thirty year period, the S&P 500 grew in value 22 fold, treasuries 11 fold, US Checking accounts 92%, and gold 79%.

 

[SirJosephPorter]

Gold can't beat interest bearing checking accounts after 30 years.

Gold Can’t Beat Checking Accounts 30 Years After Peak (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

In the thirty year period, the S&P 500 grew in value 22 fold, treasuries 11 fold, US Checking accounts 92%, and gold 79%.

Quite so, that is why I said that when investing in gold, it is important to figure out when it has reached the top and then get out.

Gold is not an investment like Canadian banks. If you bought Canadian banks a few decades ago and simply held on to them, you have done very well indeed. But with gold, one has to figure out when to get in and when to get out.

 

[AnnaG]

"Gold to hit $1,350 - $1,400 by late Spring - John Embry"


Fascinating. Markets go up and they go down.

IMO, buying low and selling high isn't the best way to invest. And it is a lot easier to buy low than it is to sell high. So when we invest in some company or other, we buy a fixed dollar amount of stocks on a regular schedule. But we tend to invest long term, though. Maybe it is different for short term investments.

 

[ironsides]

Quite so, that is why I said that when investing in gold, it is important to figure out when it has reached the top and then get out.

Gold is not an investment like Canadian banks. If you bought Canadian banks a few decades ago and simply held on to them, you have done very well indeed. But with gold, one has to figure out when to get in and when to get out.

Gold is not a investment like any bank, gold is only a hedge on a complete collapse of a monetary system. When all else fails, you can always count on gold, you will eat.

 

[AnnaG]

Gold is not a investment like any bank, gold is only a hedge on a complete collapse of a monetary system. When all else fails, you can always count on gold, you will eat.

You eat gold? Weird. We eat food here. We have a yardful of food most of the year. At the time of the year when we don't, the food is canned or frozen.

 

[earth_as_one]

"Gold to hit $1,350 - $1,400 by late Spring - John Embry"


Fascinating. Markets go up and they go down.

IMO, buying low and selling high isn't the best way to invest. And it is a lot easier to buy low than it is to sell high. So when we invest in some company or other, we buy a fixed dollar amount of stocks on a regular schedule. But we tend to invest long term, though. Maybe it is different for short term investments.

Dollar cost averaging is a timing strategy of investing equal dollar amounts regularly and periodically over specific time periods (such as $100 monthly) in a particular investment or portfolio. By doing so, more shares are purchased when prices are low and fewer shares are purchased when prices are high. The point of this is to lower the total average cost per share of the investment, giving the investor a lower overall cost for the shares purchased over time.[1]

Dollar cost averaging is also called DCA and constant dollar plan in the US, pound-cost averaging in the UK, and by the currency-neutral terms unit cost averaging and cost average effect.[2]

wiki

Over time, this strategy gives pretty good consistent results.

Buying low and selling high is great if you can figure out when something is relatively high or low and can successfully anticipate what its going to do in the future. Mistakes can be costly and most investors, even experienced ones, have a hard time figuring this out.

IMO, under $1100, gold is a buy, not as a speculative investment but as a hedge against inflation, which I think is coming sooner or later...

 

[ironsides]

You eat gold? Weird. We eat food here. We have a yardful of food most of the year. At the time of the year when we don't, the food is canned or frozen.

Now your getting silly. I usually follow the Gomez Adams style of investing, buy high, sell low.

 

[AnnaG]

Over time, this strategy gives pretty good consistent results.

I knew there was a term for it but just couldn't remember it.

Buying low and selling high is great if you can figure out when something is relatively high or low and can successfully anticipate what its going to do in the future. Mistakes can be costly and most investors, even experienced ones, have a hard time figuring this out.

Yeah, and like I said, getting rid of stocks at a high price isn't nearly as easy as buying them at a low price.

IMO, under $1100, gold is a buy, not as a speculative investment but as a hedge against inflation, which I think is coming sooner or later...

No doubt.
Inflation is a consequence of market activity. Too bad people are too greedy to come up with a better system.