Rising powers China and India set to fuel intense energy fight
By ERIC MARGOLIS
MUMBAI, INDIA -- Energy security has become the primary and most immediate strategic concern of Asia's two rising giants, India and China.
In my book War at the Top of the World (third, updated edition out later this month), I cited a little-noticed CIA study estimating that when China and India reached South Korea's 1999 level of economic development, in about 2030, their combined demand for oil would surpass today's total world oil production.
In fact, China's and India's blazing economic growth, rising more than 9% a year, means they may reach South Korea's GDP a decade or more earlier than expected. Alarm bells are ringing in India and China over the ongoing scramble for new sources of oil.
Last fall, I attended the Chinese-African summit in Beijing, the culmination of a masterful campaign by China to lock up Africa's energy and mineral resources. China, which efficiently integrated its energy and military policies, has been using financial and military aid to lock up oil concessions in Africa and Asia.
Indian officials in Delhi and the business community here in Bombay/Mumbai are deeply worried China may soon have secured all available remaining oil supplies not controlled by the United States. They are clamoring for action to secure energy supplies for India and assure its continued economic growth and expanding military power.
India's modest domestic oil production has been waning, forcing it to import 70% of its oil. India's imports account for 3.2% of world oil imports; China's 7.6%; the U.S. 25%; and Europe 26%.
India, quite clearly, is being left way behind in the stampede to secure energy supplies. Its oil imports will need to double by 2030 from the current 2.4 million barrels daily to sustain growth. China's imports should reach 12 million barrels daily.
Since most of this oil will originate from the Gulf or Indonesia, both Asian superpowers are rushing to deploy deep-water naval forces to protect their oil lifelines, just as the U.S. has done since before World War II.
POWERFUL NAVY
China is building a fleet of modern attack submarines, some nuclear-powered, missile-armed surface combatants, and extending the range of its land-based naval aviation. The People's Navy has gone from being a weak "brown water" coastal force to a true "blue-water" navy that could even challenge the U.S. 7th Fleet in a clash over Taiwan.
But China is unable to project naval power into the vast Indian Ocean and Gulf due to its lack of bases and air cover. Here, India holds a major advantage.
India's modern aircraft carrier, long-ranged shore-based aviation, and modern, Russian-supplied attack submarines and frigates armed with deadly cruise missiles will give India maritime dominance over the entire Indian Ocean from the coast of East Africa to Australia. Only the U.S. Navy could challenge India's sway over the Indian Ocean.
China's securing of port rights in Burma, warm relations with East African states, and expanding influence in energy-rich Central Asia worries India. At the same time, India's surging naval power has deeply alarmed Pakistan, whose oil lifeline through the port of Karachi could be quickly severed by an Indian naval blockade.
Having come late to the Monopoly-like game of grabbing as many key oil properties as possible, India is now racing to make up for lost time. Being a democracy prone to debilitating party politics and infighting, India cannot operate with the ruthless strategic efficiency as Communist China, but it knows time is running out.
COUNTERING U.S. THREATS
What this means is that some time soon, India's strategic energy and political interests are going to start actively competing in the Mideast with those of the region's hegemon, the United States. To no surprise, some of India's recent naval improvements, notably its powerful anti-ship missiles, appear aimed at countering any potential future threat of action by the U.S. Navy.
The five-way contest between the U.S., India, Japan, Europe and China for Asia and Africa's energy resources promises to be fascinating. Welcome to the new Great Game.
http://www.torontosun.com/News/Columnists/Margolis_Eric/2007/03/11/3731156-sun.html
By ERIC MARGOLIS
MUMBAI, INDIA -- Energy security has become the primary and most immediate strategic concern of Asia's two rising giants, India and China.
In my book War at the Top of the World (third, updated edition out later this month), I cited a little-noticed CIA study estimating that when China and India reached South Korea's 1999 level of economic development, in about 2030, their combined demand for oil would surpass today's total world oil production.
In fact, China's and India's blazing economic growth, rising more than 9% a year, means they may reach South Korea's GDP a decade or more earlier than expected. Alarm bells are ringing in India and China over the ongoing scramble for new sources of oil.
Last fall, I attended the Chinese-African summit in Beijing, the culmination of a masterful campaign by China to lock up Africa's energy and mineral resources. China, which efficiently integrated its energy and military policies, has been using financial and military aid to lock up oil concessions in Africa and Asia.
Indian officials in Delhi and the business community here in Bombay/Mumbai are deeply worried China may soon have secured all available remaining oil supplies not controlled by the United States. They are clamoring for action to secure energy supplies for India and assure its continued economic growth and expanding military power.
India's modest domestic oil production has been waning, forcing it to import 70% of its oil. India's imports account for 3.2% of world oil imports; China's 7.6%; the U.S. 25%; and Europe 26%.
India, quite clearly, is being left way behind in the stampede to secure energy supplies. Its oil imports will need to double by 2030 from the current 2.4 million barrels daily to sustain growth. China's imports should reach 12 million barrels daily.
Since most of this oil will originate from the Gulf or Indonesia, both Asian superpowers are rushing to deploy deep-water naval forces to protect their oil lifelines, just as the U.S. has done since before World War II.
POWERFUL NAVY
China is building a fleet of modern attack submarines, some nuclear-powered, missile-armed surface combatants, and extending the range of its land-based naval aviation. The People's Navy has gone from being a weak "brown water" coastal force to a true "blue-water" navy that could even challenge the U.S. 7th Fleet in a clash over Taiwan.
But China is unable to project naval power into the vast Indian Ocean and Gulf due to its lack of bases and air cover. Here, India holds a major advantage.
India's modern aircraft carrier, long-ranged shore-based aviation, and modern, Russian-supplied attack submarines and frigates armed with deadly cruise missiles will give India maritime dominance over the entire Indian Ocean from the coast of East Africa to Australia. Only the U.S. Navy could challenge India's sway over the Indian Ocean.
China's securing of port rights in Burma, warm relations with East African states, and expanding influence in energy-rich Central Asia worries India. At the same time, India's surging naval power has deeply alarmed Pakistan, whose oil lifeline through the port of Karachi could be quickly severed by an Indian naval blockade.
Having come late to the Monopoly-like game of grabbing as many key oil properties as possible, India is now racing to make up for lost time. Being a democracy prone to debilitating party politics and infighting, India cannot operate with the ruthless strategic efficiency as Communist China, but it knows time is running out.
COUNTERING U.S. THREATS
What this means is that some time soon, India's strategic energy and political interests are going to start actively competing in the Mideast with those of the region's hegemon, the United States. To no surprise, some of India's recent naval improvements, notably its powerful anti-ship missiles, appear aimed at countering any potential future threat of action by the U.S. Navy.
The five-way contest between the U.S., India, Japan, Europe and China for Asia and Africa's energy resources promises to be fascinating. Welcome to the new Great Game.
http://www.torontosun.com/News/Columnists/Margolis_Eric/2007/03/11/3731156-sun.html
