France's Economy Stinks

Toro

Senate Member
What do you expect after all the demonstrations against the minor labour "reforms" from last summer?

Shock French slump as Airbus crisis bites

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 12:04am GMT 11/11/2006

The French economy slumped in the third quarter as the Airbus crisis began to exact its toll, dousing hopes that Europe would take over as world's growth engine as America slows. Growth sank to zero with an accelerating twist down in September as car output fell 3.1pc and overall manufacturing slid 1pc, far worse than expectations.

The shock data comes as the yield curve on euro-zone bonds turned negative for the first time since 2000, flashing a warning signal that has often preceded recessions. France's sudden downturn comes amid signs of flagging growth across the euro-zone following a brief burst of energy this year. Germany and Italy both face fiscal austerity packages in 2007.

Alexander Law, an economist at Xerfi, said France's booming growth this summer was an illusion driven by de-stocking.

Jean Michel-Six, an economist of Standard & Poor's, said French exports were suffering a loss of global market share due to high labour costs and the strong euro. "I am afraid that loss of exports is the major factor behind this bad surprise, and Airbus may be starting to play a role. Airbus deliveries generate $1.5bn (£1.01bn) a month for French exports and this is now in question. There had originally been plans to deliver 25 of the A380 jumbos in 2007 and instead there will be just one."

Prime minister Dominique de Villepin was caught flat-footed by the data after playing up the French recovery "miracle" earlier this year. "Sadly we're seeing a pause in growth but this should inspire us to yet more grit and determination," he said yesterday.

There is almost no chance of France meeting the growth rate of 2.5pc predicted by the European Commission for 2007. The European Central Bank is expected to press ahead next month with a quarter point rise in interest rates to 3.5pc, arguing excess credit has swamped the system with excess liquidity.

Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB's chairman, said this week the ECB was built on a legacy of strict monetary discipline inherited from the Bundesbank that would not be abandoned "lightly".

Resistance is already emerging from a powerful bloc of EU finance ministers threatening to use their Maastricht Treaty powers to clip the wings of the bank if it fails to support growth.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/11/11/cnfrance11.xml

Its not shocking to me.
 

Toro

Senate Member
Another reason why

The French approach to globalisation
Written by Tom Clougherty
Wednesday, 01 November 2006



As reported in yesterday's International Herald Tribune, the furore over a French-based company’s attempts to outsource its bra-making operations to Tunisia has offered a glimpse at how Jacques Chirac's socialist challengers would "tackle" globalisation. Basically, they would bury their heads in the sand and hope it goes away.

Segolene Royal, currently the left's prime contender for the Presidential election next year, has been central to the fight to save the factories in her Poitou-Charentes region. Royal has suggested that, in future, companies should be barred from moving their operations abroad if they have previously received assistance from the state. She would also like to tax French companies for reimporting goods made overseas. The French Socialist Party platform calls for the establishment of a new state agency to find "new uses for worksites made obsolete by outsourcing and rescue trades threatened with extinction because of outsourcing."

All of which are excellent ideas, assuming that your goal is to create a stagnant economy and further deny French citizens the overwhelming benefits of economic globalisation. Will some lingerie manufacturers lose out because jobs are shipped abroad? Of course they will - at least in the short term. But something tells me there will always be a market for French lingerie, just as people will continue to pay more for Italian suits instead of buying Chinese ones. The key is to adapt to competitive market forces, not attempt to isolate yourself from them. This means that French manufacturers should concentrate on making high-quality, value-added undergarments rather than mass-producing them.

Free trade benefits everyone. It helps the workers and businesses in poorer countries, who are able to trade themselves out of poverty. It helps the consumers in rich countries, who are able to buy cheaper products and stretch their incomes further. Moreover, it has an incredibly benign effect on the national economy. Free global trade forces countries to allocate their resources in the most efficient way possible - producing only those things they have a comparative advantage in making and selling them to people who want them. That’s how economies grow and how wealth is created. France, and indeed the EU as a whole, needs to realise this and act accordingly. This is the only way they will be able to compete with India and China and the other emerging economies in the years ahead.