Pound Slides as Scotland Talks 2nd Referendum


tay
#1
As the prime minister prepares to head north to speak at the Scottish Conservative conference this week, it has emerged that the SNP government raised the issue of a second referendum at a private meeting with her administration on Wednesday.

The first minister looks set to call a vote by the Scottish parliament — following next month’s SNP conference and triggering of article 50 — to strengthen her mandate to stage a second referendum.

According to the Sunday Times (external - login to view), a call for a vote on a second referendum will be made next month, after the UK triggers Article 50 of the EU Treaty, which formally initiates Britain's exit from the EU.

British Pound Slides After Sturgeon Reportedly Seeks a Vote on 2nd Scottish Independence Referendum ~ Razor Forex (external - login to view)
 
Danbones
Free Thinker
#2
quik! the titanic's going down!!!
there is still time to hitch up!!!
 
Blackleaf
+1
#3  Top Rated Post
If the SNP (who are showing they hold the democratic wishes of the Scottish people in contempt by trying to hold the referendum again and again until the Scottish people vote the "right" way) hold enough referendum anytime soon, they'll lose it again - and they sure as hell won't be getting another one. So they have to be careful. And most Scots don't even want a second referendum.

It still strikes me as rather bizarre that the Scottish "National" Party want to end rule from London just to swap it for rule from Brussels. That's not really independence, is it? What kind of Scottish nationalists are they?
 
tay
#4
Seems Scotland wants the best of both, remaining in the EU and it's ties to England. They are in a good position to extract extra benefits from May and that could be what this is all about...........

While Westminster legislative consent for a second referendum would, as in 2014, reduce the chances of a vote being challenged in the courts, it is unclear whether the SNP could stage one without May’s backing.

Relations between the two governments have become increasingly fractious, with Scottish ministers ramping up the pressure on May to take on board the SNP’s position that Scotland should be allowed to remain in the single market after most Scots voted against leaving the EU.

In a private meeting on Wednesday between UK Brexit minister David Davis and his Scottish counterpart, Michael Russell asked whether the UK government respected that it was the right of the Scottish people to determine their own future and whether it is the right time for the Scottish parliament to make a decision on the single market.

Davis replied that constitutional matters were reserved for the prime minister. Russell also told Davis that the article 50 letter triggering Brexit had become a totemic issue, and that it would have to contain Scotland’s demands, which had so far been ignored by May and in the Brexit white paper.

On Friday Russell also wrote to the convener of Holyrood’s European committee Joan McAlpine, venting his frustration at the UK government’s approach. He said: “In all this, it is essential that when the UK government formally starts the article 50 withdrawal process, the views and interests of the people of Scotland and of the Scottish parliament are clearly articulated.

“Given the UK government’s self-imposed deadline of the end of next March, time is clearly running out for UK ministers to demonstrate that the voice of the people of Scotland is being listened to; that the clear democratic will of Scotland is being respected.”

Scottish secretary David Mundell points to work being done by officials on Scotland and Brexit, on contentious areas such as migration, and to an intensified programme of meetings between ministers.

In advance of her first speech as leader to the Scottish Tory conference, May will be briefed by Scots Tory leader Ruth Davidson on the latest developments in a telephone call tomorrow. May is expected to reaffirm her support for the union, and for Scotland to play a full part in the Brexit process.

Sturgeon and May head for indyref2 standoff | Scotland | The Times & The Sunday Times (external - login to view)
 
Blackleaf
#5
Quote: Originally Posted by tayView Post

Seems Scotland wants the best of both, remaining in the EU and it's ties to England. They are in a good position to extract extra benefits from May and that could be what this is all about...........

It can't have both. Its choice is either to stay in what is by far the most important union for Scottish trade - the UK - or it can leave the UK and join the EU (which is far less important to Scottish trade, it'll have a wait of years to get back in and it'll have to join the failing euro) or it can be in neither. The Scots have to pick one of those and neither the UK nor the EU will be in any way inclined to give the Scots the best of both worlds.

63% of Scottish trade is with the rest of the United Kingdom.

16%
of Scottish trade is with the EU.

I think we know which way the Scots will vote if they get another referendum and this stat is repeated to them several times.

Scotland's trade with UK rises to £50bn

25 January 2017
BBC News


Renewable electricity through cables going south of the border helped drive the increase in sales to the rest of the UK

Scotland's trade with the rest of the UK continues to be worth four times more than its exports to the EU, according to Scottish government figures.

The latest Export Statistics Scotland data showed the country sold £49.8bn to the rest of the UK in 2015 - £2.1bn more than the previous year.

Exports to the EU rose by £520m to a total of £12.3bn.

Both figures represented a 4.4% increase on the previous year.

The Scottish government is exploring options for keeping Scotland in the European single market after Brexit, with the First Minister saying a second independence referendum is highly likely if it is felt to be the best option for protecting the country's interests.

Opponents argue that independence could threaten access to UK markets - a claim that is dismissed by the Scottish government.

The Scottish government said the increase in exports to the rest of the UK was driven by utilities such as electricity - largely from renewables - as well as gas and water, with petroleum and chemical products contributing to the growth in EU exports.

The statistics also showed that the total value of Scotland's international exports rose from £27.7bn in 2014 to £28.7bn in 2015 - of which £16.4bn was outside the EU.

The US continued to be Scotland largest overseas market outside of the EU, buying goods and services worth £4.6bn - more than any single EU country.

Within the EU, the Netherlands was again the largest market at £2.3bn - although the figure is inflated by Scottish goods going to the port of Rotterdam before being shipped elsewhere.

It was followed by France and Germany, which both accounted for £1.8bn of goods and services.

Scotland's trade

Where was business done in 2015?

63%
Rest of the UK

16%
European Union

4.8% Food and drink
3.5% Professional & scientific
2.8% Petroleum & chemical
2.1% Mining & quarrying

Scottish government


Scotland's economy secretary, Keith Brown, said it was "hugely encouraging" to see Scotland's total international exports, excluding oil and gas, increase by £1bn.

He added: "It is clear that since the vote to leave the European Union, we must continue to be seen to be a country that is outward facing and open for business.

"The EU market is eight times the size of the UK market, which highlights the importance of remaining in the Single Market.

"I want to be clear that Scotland should not face a choice between exporting to the EU or UK. We can do both."

Mr Brown also announced the members of the Scottish government's new trade board, which will have responsibility for helping to broaden Scotland's export base and grow exports beyond the country's traditional markets.

The board will include entrepreneur Russell Dalgleish, British Chambers of Commerce president Nora Senior and Ian Donnelly of Rosyth Babcock.

The UK government's Scottish secretary, David Mundell, said the figures showed that the domestic market in the UK was "far and away" the most important market for Scotland's businesses.

He added: "The Scottish government's own figures show our trade with the rest of the UK is worth four times our exports to the EU.
"Businesses in Scotland sold £37.5bn more in goods and services to their own market in the UK than they did to all 27 EU countries put together.

"Today's figures show the UK is the vital union for Scotland, and highlight the importance of maintaining the UK market and preventing any new barriers to doing business across the UK as we leave the EU."



Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale said: "Tory plans for a hard Brexit risk damaging Scotland's economy - but the SNP government's own figures show that independence would be considerably worse.

"It is simply a reckless nationalist gamble to put access to the UK single market, and all the jobs that depend on it, at risk. That's why the SNP must drop plans for a second independence referendum."

Scottish Liberal Democrat MP Alistair Carmichael said the figures showed the importance of keeping Scotland in both the UK and the EU.

He added: "If Britain is to be pulled out of the single market and we put up barriers to our trade with Europe it would do huge damage to jobs and prosperity in Scotland.

"Similarly erecting a border between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom would result in a catastrophic loss in trade."

Analysis by Douglas Fraser, BBC Scotland economy editor

The tussling over Brexit is back, with Scottish export figures that show two things, depending on one's perspective.

Conservatives emphasise the importance of sales from Scotland to the rest of the UK - four times greater than the value of sales to the rest of the EU in 2015.

But, points out the Scottish government, the size of the total European Union market is around eight times bigger than the size of the market across England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

To understand the difference, one side is measuring actual sales: the other potential for sales. Take your pick. They are, in a way, alternative facts.

What the export figures show us once more is that, unlike England and Wales, it is the United States that is Scotland's biggest single export market.


Read more from Douglas (external - login to view)

Scotland's trade with UK rises to £50bn - BBC News (external - login to view)
 
Curious Cdn
Conservative
#6
They'll have to step up Scotch whiskey production to satisfy the massive, emerging Chinese market.
 
tay
#7
Quote: Originally Posted by BlackleafView Post

It can't have both. Its choice is either to stay in what is by far the most important union for Scottish trade - the UK - or it can leave the UK and join the EU (which is far less important to Scottish trade, it'll have a wait of years to get back in and it'll have to join the failing euro) or it can be in neither. The Scots have to pick one of those and neither the UK nor the EU will be in any way inclined to give the Scots the best of both worlds.
Renewable electricity through cables going south of the border helped drive the increase in sales to the rest of the UK
The board will include entrepreneur Russell Dalgleish, British Chambers of Commerce president Nora Senior and Ian Donnelly of Rosyth Babcock.
The UK government's Scottish secretary, David Mundell, said the figures showed that the domestic market in the UK was "far and away" the most important market for Scotland's businesses.
He added: "The Scottish government's own figures show our trade with the rest of the UK is worth four times our exports to the EU.
"Businesses in Scotland sold £37.5bn more in goods and services to their own market in the UK than they did to all 27 EU countries put together.

Quote has been trimmed, See full post: View Post

What that says to me is England needs Scotland's imports. If the Scottish imports were cut off, where would England go to get those products and services?
 
Blackleaf
#8
Quote: Originally Posted by tayView Post

What that says to me is England needs Scotland's imports. If the Scottish imports were cut off, where would England go to get those products and services?

How much of England's imports come from Scotland?

The most recent Scottish government figures, not including oil and gas, show Scotland sold £50.5bn in goods and services to the rest of the UK in 2013. The rest of the UK sold £62.7bn in goods and services to Scotland.

That's a lot more than trade with the rest of the world, to which Scotland sold £21.3bn in goods and services, while importing £21.6bn from abroad.

In other words, the whole world outside the United Kingdom is less important to Scottish trade than the rest of the UK is.

Now that £50.5bn is a drop in the ocean to a huge economy like the rest of the UK, yet that £62.5bn is a huge amount for a tiny economy like Scotland. Economically, Scotland is dependent on the rest of the UK, but the rest of the UK would barely notice economically if Scotland decided to be ruled by unelected foreigners in Brussels rather than by elected MPs at Westminster.

Coffee House (external - login to view)

Nicola Sturgeon’s ‘neverendum’ is hammering the Scottish economy

Matthew Lynn (external - login to view)



(Photo: Getty)


Matthew Lynn (external - login to view)
27 February 2017
The Spectator

Its economy will be destroyed by leaving the single market. Losing access to European sales will destroy swathes of industry, and without free movement, employers will be crucified by skill shortages. Nicola Sturgeon is no doubt already preparing her lines for a vote on Scottish independence once the UK leaves the EU.

Right now, that looks as if it could come a lot sooner than anyone imagined. It is reported that as soon as the Prime Minister Theresa May triggers Article 50 in March and starts the process of leaving the European Union, Scotland’s First Minister will announce plans for a second referendum on independence – a demand that May could find impossible to resist.

But hold on. In fact, Sturgeon’s ‘neverendum’ campaign is already hurting her country’s faltering economy. It is already doing significantly worse than the rest of Britain. With the added uncertainty of yet another referendum, it may be wiped out completely. It is surely time the nationalists stop playing games and started worrying about jobs and growth instead.

As Scotland voted 62/38 to remain in the EU, even as the UK voted 52/48 to leave, it is not hard to understand why the SNP sees an opening to reverse the result of the 2014 vote on independence. The Scots will be taken out of the EU against the will of the majority.

The SNP believes that Brexit gives it the opportunity to win this time around. Perhaps it does. But it also becoming clear that the ‘neverendum’ campaign is hammering the Scottish economy.

In fact, Scotland is starting to perform significantly worse than the UK as a whole. In the latest quarter it grew by only 0.2 percent, compared wit (external - login to view)h 0.6 percent for the UK. The employment rate is now declining. In the three months to November it dropped by 0.5 percent, and is now well below the rate for the UK (external - login to view). House prices are rising more slowly than England or Wales – 3.5 percent compared to 7.2 percent for England. Perhaps most seriously of all, the rate of company formation in Scotland is way below the overall rate for the UK – very few new businesses are being created (external - login to view).

In the last year, it has become obvious that the Scottish economy, which was always perfectly prosperous compared to anywhere apart from London, is now doing a lot worse than the British one. It is not hard to figure out the reason. The SNP has created a vast amount of political uncertainty.

It is campaigning for a second referendum on independence, only a few years after the last one. And it is campaigning to either remain inside or go back into the EU, even though Europe accounts for only around 16 percent of its trade, compared with 63 percent for the UK.

Britain is going through a big change with Brexit. But at least the direction of travel is clear. We are coming out of the single market and probably out of the customs union as well. That will cause some disruption – and yet against that, companies know what is coming down the line, and can make plans accordingly.

Any business in Scotland, by contrast, no longer has any idea whether it will be in the UK, the EU, the single market, or the customs union. It doesn’t even know what currency it will use in a couple of years time. Why would anyone want to invest in a climate like that? The answer is, they don’t.

Nothing will stop Sturgeon campaigning for independence, or seizing any opportunity for another vote. But as its economy declines, the SNP’s political recklessness looks more and more cavalier. And if it ever does achieve its aim, it may find itself in charge of a very poor country.

Nicola Sturgeon (external - login to view)
Last edited by Blackleaf; Feb 28th, 2017 at 04:32 AM..
 
Cannuck
No Party Affiliation
#9
Scotland is leaving the UK. The only question is when
 
Blackleaf
#10










 
Danbones
Free Thinker
#11
I hate to be the spell nazi I hate but...
that's "ewe"

and it's proper spelling is T-I-T-A-N-I-C
 
Curious Cdn
Conservative
#12
If you hold Scotland in such low regard, why aren't you happy to see them go? Most Englishmen view the Scots (and the Welsh and the Irish) as some sort of welfare bums, spending all of England's honestly earned treasure. You should be happy to see them leave, if any of that is true, and stop banging on like this.

Give the Welsh their freedom, while you're at it.
 
Blackleaf
#13
Quote: Originally Posted by Curious CdnView Post

If you hold Scotland in such low regard, why aren't you happy to see them go?

I WOULD be happy to see them go. Shame they don't want to.

Quote:

Give the Welsh their freedom, while you're at it.

Why don't the Welsh give the English THEIR freedom?
 
Curious Cdn
Conservative
#14
Quote: Originally Posted by BlackleafView Post

I WOULD be happy to see them go. Shame they don't want to.



Why don't the Welsh give the English THEIR freedom?

Exactly. Stop yer whining and split up you "United" Kingdom.
 
Blackleaf
#15
Quote: Originally Posted by Curious CdnView Post

Exactly. Stop yer whining and split up you "United" Kingdom.

The Scots would have split it up by now had they voted for independence in 2014, but they didn't because they don't - and never will - have the balls to. They know they can't survive without England.

The Welsh and the Northern Irish are the same. They cannot pull themselves away from England's generous teats.

The EU are also scared of losing English money, too, when Brexit occurs. England bankrolls the British Isles and much of Continental Europe. Imagine how much wealthier England would be when she stops sending her cash to the feckless Scots, Welsh, Irish and Continentals.
 
Curious Cdn
Conservative
#16
Quote: Originally Posted by BlackleafView Post

The Scots would have split it up by now had they voted for independence in 2014, but they didn't because they don't - and never will - have the balls to. They know they can't survive without England.

The Welsh and the Northern Irish are the same. They cannot pull themselves away from England's generous teats.

The EU are always scared of losing English money, too, when Brexit occurs. England bankrolls the the British Isles and much of Continental Europe.

They'll all get another chance. Let them go!
 
Blackleaf
#17
Quote: Originally Posted by Curious CdnView Post

Let them go!

WHO should let them go? England doesn't rule Scotland and Wales. England, I should remind you, is merely part of the same union as them. It's like asking British Columbia to let Quebec go.

I should also remind you that Scotland and Wales have more autonomy within the UK than England has, as Scotland has its own Parliament and Wales its own Assembly. England has neither.

If anyone's hard done by, here, it's the English.
 
Curious Cdn
Conservative
#18
Quote: Originally Posted by BlackleafView Post

WHO should let them go? England doesn't rule Scotland and Wales. England, I should remind you, is merely part of the same union as them. It's like asking British Columbia to let Quebec go.

BC would be less damaging, if they left but Quebec is right in the middle of Canada and it would fatally cleave us in two. Imagine if Yorkshire separated from England ...?
 
Blackleaf
#19
Quote: Originally Posted by Curious CdnView Post

BC would be less damaging, if they left but Quebec is right in the middle of Canada and it would fatally cleave us in two. Imagine if Yorkshire separated from England ...?

Just let Quebec go.
 
Curious Cdn
Conservative
#20
Quote: Originally Posted by BlackleafView Post

Just let Quebec go.

That doesn't work for the reasons described in my last post. Read it more slowly and sound out the words, this time.
 
Blackleaf
#21
Quote: Originally Posted by Curious CdnView Post

That doesn't work for the reasons described in my last post. Read it more slowly and sound out the words, this time.

So you're saying Quebec shouldn't be a self-governing, sovereign nation - even if the Quebecans want that - just because it will leave Canada looking rather peculiar on a world map?

That's a feeble excuse. Just let Quebec go and be a proud, sovereign state if that's what it wants.
 
Curious Cdn
Conservative
#22
Quote: Originally Posted by BlackleafView Post

So you're saying Quebec shouldn't be a self-governing, sovereign nation - even if the Quebecans want that - just because it will leave Canada looking rather peculiar on a world map?

That's a feeble excuse. Just let Quebec go and be a proud, sovereign state if that's what it wants.

They already are self-governing. Canadian provinces are more autonomous in our federation than Scotland is in your kingdom and Quebec is the most autonomous of the lot.
 
Blackleaf
#23
Quote: Originally Posted by Curious CdnView Post

They already are self-governing. Canadian provinces are more autonomous in our federation than Scotland is in your kingdom and Quebec is the most autonomous of the lot.

That's not true. Scotland has more powers than any other non-sovereign state on Earth - and still Wee Jimmy Krankie and her SNP whinge.
 
Curious Cdn
Conservative
#24
Quote: Originally Posted by BlackleafView Post

That's not true. Scotland has more powers than any other non-sovereign state on Earth - and still Wee Jimmy Krankie and her SNP whinge.

Rubbish. You don't know anything about the rest of the world.
 
Blackleaf
#25
Quote: Originally Posted by Curious CdnView Post

Rubbish.

It's not rubbish. It's true.

Holyrood is the most powerful devolved parliament on Earth.
 
White_Unifier
#26
Quote: Originally Posted by BlackleafView Post

I WOULD be happy to see them go. Shame they don't want to.



Why don't the Welsh give the English THEIR freedom?

There are whiners and then there are doers. The Scots who want to leave set up their own Parliament and have held a referendum. The Englishmen who want to leave the UK just whine whine whine. If you're so unhappy, why don't you propose that England establish its own Parliament and sovereignty referendum rather than just flush your English sovereignty down the UK drain. Westminster sounds as bad as Brussels.
 
Cannuck
No Party Affiliation
#27
Quote: Originally Posted by BlackleafView Post

Just let Quebec go.

Kweebeck won't go. They need Canada more than Canada needs Kweebeck. The same doesn't apply to Scotland and the UK.
 
Blackleaf
#28
Quote: Originally Posted by White_UnifierView Post

The Scots who want to leave

They don't want to leave. They showed that in the 2014 referendum. It's a shame for the Scots that they have a government who is ignoring the democratic wishes they expressed in 2014.

Quote:

set up their own Parliament

Thee Scots alrewady have their own parliament - unlike the English.,

Quote:

The Englishmen who want to leave the UK just whine whine whine.

It's Scottish nationalists who are doing the whining, not the English.

Quote:

why don't you propose that England establish its own Parliament

I have proposed it, many times.

Quote: Originally Posted by CannuckView Post

Kweebeck won't go. They need Canada more than Canada needs Kweebeck. The same doesn't apply to Scotland and the UK.

Provide me with the evidence on both assertions.
 
Cannuck
No Party Affiliation
#29
Quote: Originally Posted by BlackleafView Post

They don't want to leave. They showed that in the 2014 referendum. It's a shame for the Scots that they have a government who is ignoring the democratic wishes they expressed in 2014.

Thee Scots alrewady have their own parliament - unlike the English.,

It's Scottish nationalists who are doing the whining, not the English.



I have proposed it, many times.



Provide me with the evidence on both assertions.

No. You have access to Google.
 
White_Unifier
#30
Quote: Originally Posted by BlackleafView Post

They don't want to leave. They showed that in the 2014 referendum. It's a shame for the Scots that they have a government who is ignoring the democratic wishes they expressed in 2014.

Thee Scots alrewady have their own parliament - unlike the English.,

It's Scottish nationalists who are doing the whining, not the English.



I have proposed it, many times.



Provide me with the evidence on both assertions.


Don't propose it to us. HAve you written to your MP about your proposal?
 
no new posts