Britain's population is set to overtake that of France within 13 years because of the impact of high immigration, EU estimates have said.
Numbers of people living here will top French levels in 2030 and will keep rising to make Britain the most populous country in Europe by 2050, they predicted.
The key reason why the British population is going up so quickly compared to that of neighbouring countries is immigration, according to the projections from Eurostat.
Without high rates of immigration, they said, numbers in Britain would remain lower than those in France for half a century and longer.
But by 2050 the UK's population is predicted to be 77.1million, ahead of 74.7million in Germany and 74.2million in France.
Already, the Netherlands and Malta are the only European countries more densely populated than Britain.
Population of Britain is set to overtake France within 13 years: Impact of high immigration will make the UK the most populous European country by 2050
Eurostat predict UK population in 2030 will be 70,4m - and 77.1m by 2050
German population set to continue to fall despite high immigration levels
UK already has the highest population density in Europe, ahead of Holland
Predictions do not take in to account the political impact of Brexit
By Steve Doughty, Social Affairs Correspondent for the Daily Mail
4 January 2017
Britain's population is set to overtake that of France within 13 years because of the impact of high immigration, EU estimates have said.
Numbers of people living here will top French levels in 2030 and will keep rising to make Britain the most populous country in Europe by 2050, they predicted.
The key reason why the British population is going up so quickly compared to that of neighbouring countries is immigration, according to the projections from Eurostat.
Without high rates of immigration, they said, numbers in Britain would remain lower than those in France for half a century and longer.
But by 2050 the UK's population is predicted to be 77.1million, ahead of 74.7million in Germany and 74.2million in France.
2050: Britain's population is set to overtake that of France and Germany because of the impact of high immigration, EU estimates (pictured) have said.
Comparison: The UK's population was smaller than France's and Germany's in 2015 (in green) - predictions for 2050 (in blue) show that it will be larger than both countries by then
Britain's population is set to overtake France in 13 years because of high impacts of immigration, Eurostat have said
Britain’s population was higher than that of France in the 1960s, but European prosperity and British stagnation in the 1970s led to a reversal
The estimates from the Luxembourg-based EU statistics arm confirm international expectations that Britain, already the most crowded major European country except for the Netherlands, will continue to grow quickly in numbers, largely because of immigration.
The projections, however, do not take into account the political impact of Brexit, which would allow the UK the right to control immigration by EU citizens.
The most recent British immigration figures showed that numbers of EU citizens coming into the country now almost match the level of immigration from the rest of the world.
Eurostat future population estimates are dated from the beginning of January each year – unlike the different estimates made by Britain’s Office for National Statistics, which are calculated from the end of June – and the latest were released yesterday.
They put numbers in Britain at the beginning of 2015 at 64,643,370. This compared to a population of 66,175,754 in France (including its overseas departments) and 80,709,056 in Germany.
At the beginning of 2030, the projections said, numbers in the UK will have gone up to 70,469,762, just ahead of the French population of 70,396,105.
Germany, despite continuing high levels of immigration, will have an ageing and falling population for the foreseeable future, the EU agency said.
Numbers in Germany will fall below those in Britain in the late 2040s, the figures suggest, and reach 74,721,315 in 2050, against the UK total of 77,177,523.
At that point the UK will have the highest population of any European country.
The central reason for Britain’s increasing numbers is immigration, the projections said.
Without immigration or emigration, Eurostat’s projections said, the British population in 2050 would be just 67,251,838, more than two million below numbers in France if they too were unaffected by migration.
With no impact of immigration on numbers, the population of Britain would actually fall by 2080, the Eurostat estimates said.
The official count of Britain’s population by the ONS put the UK total at 65.1 million at the end of June 2015.
According to the EU projections, if there was no immigration or emigration, the effects of ageing and lower birth rates would mean number would begin to fall from 2050 and there would be 64,710,496 people in the UK at the beginning of 2080.
The scale of the increase in future numbers – and the Eurostat interpretation which says that the great bulk of rising population in Britain is a result of migration – underline the extent of the concerns that fuelled the Brexit referendum vote last year.
Without high rates of immigration, they said, numbers in Britain would remain lower than those in France for half a century and longer. Above is a stock image of Marseille
Germany, despite continuing high levels of immigration, will have an ageing and falling population for the foreseeable future, the EU agency said. Above is a stock image of the Berlin skyline
Critics of immigration fear growing pressure on housing, transport, education, power and water, and health services, especially in southern England which attracts the majority of arriving immigrants.
Britain already has the greatest population density – the official measure of crowding – of any of the major countries of Europe.
Only the Netherlands and tiny Malta have more people crammed into each square kilometre of land in the UK, and in southern England, where there are 465 people to every square kilometre, density is on track to overtake that in the Netherlands.
Eurostat said: ‘Population projections are what-if scenarios that aim to provide information about the likely future size and structure of the population.
‘Eurostat’s population projections are one of several possible population change scenarios based on specific assumptions for fertility, mortality and migration.’
Only the Netherlands (pictured) and Malta have more people crammed into each square kilometre of land in the UK
The EU estimates are based on varying assessments of the future size of the central measure of the impact of immigration, net migration. Net migration into the UK, which takes into account both immigration and emigration, is expected by Eurostat to peak at just under 210,000 a year in 2014.
However net migration in Britain was measured by the ONS at 335,000 in the year to June 2016.
Britain’s population was higher than that of France in the 1960s, but European prosperity and British stagnation in the 1970s led to a reversal.
During the decade emigration from Britain was higher than immigration, and numbers in France overtook the British population in the first half of the 1980s.
Numbers of people living here will top French levels in 2030 and will keep rising to make Britain the most populous country in Europe by 2050, they predicted.
The key reason why the British population is going up so quickly compared to that of neighbouring countries is immigration, according to the projections from Eurostat.
Without high rates of immigration, they said, numbers in Britain would remain lower than those in France for half a century and longer.
But by 2050 the UK's population is predicted to be 77.1million, ahead of 74.7million in Germany and 74.2million in France.
Already, the Netherlands and Malta are the only European countries more densely populated than Britain.
Population of Britain is set to overtake France within 13 years: Impact of high immigration will make the UK the most populous European country by 2050
Eurostat predict UK population in 2030 will be 70,4m - and 77.1m by 2050
German population set to continue to fall despite high immigration levels
UK already has the highest population density in Europe, ahead of Holland
Predictions do not take in to account the political impact of Brexit
By Steve Doughty, Social Affairs Correspondent for the Daily Mail
4 January 2017
Britain's population is set to overtake that of France within 13 years because of the impact of high immigration, EU estimates have said.
Numbers of people living here will top French levels in 2030 and will keep rising to make Britain the most populous country in Europe by 2050, they predicted.
The key reason why the British population is going up so quickly compared to that of neighbouring countries is immigration, according to the projections from Eurostat.
Without high rates of immigration, they said, numbers in Britain would remain lower than those in France for half a century and longer.
But by 2050 the UK's population is predicted to be 77.1million, ahead of 74.7million in Germany and 74.2million in France.
2050: Britain's population is set to overtake that of France and Germany because of the impact of high immigration, EU estimates (pictured) have said.
Comparison: The UK's population was smaller than France's and Germany's in 2015 (in green) - predictions for 2050 (in blue) show that it will be larger than both countries by then
Britain's population is set to overtake France in 13 years because of high impacts of immigration, Eurostat have said
Britain’s population was higher than that of France in the 1960s, but European prosperity and British stagnation in the 1970s led to a reversal
The estimates from the Luxembourg-based EU statistics arm confirm international expectations that Britain, already the most crowded major European country except for the Netherlands, will continue to grow quickly in numbers, largely because of immigration.
The projections, however, do not take into account the political impact of Brexit, which would allow the UK the right to control immigration by EU citizens.
The most recent British immigration figures showed that numbers of EU citizens coming into the country now almost match the level of immigration from the rest of the world.
Eurostat future population estimates are dated from the beginning of January each year – unlike the different estimates made by Britain’s Office for National Statistics, which are calculated from the end of June – and the latest were released yesterday.
They put numbers in Britain at the beginning of 2015 at 64,643,370. This compared to a population of 66,175,754 in France (including its overseas departments) and 80,709,056 in Germany.
At the beginning of 2030, the projections said, numbers in the UK will have gone up to 70,469,762, just ahead of the French population of 70,396,105.
Germany, despite continuing high levels of immigration, will have an ageing and falling population for the foreseeable future, the EU agency said.
Numbers in Germany will fall below those in Britain in the late 2040s, the figures suggest, and reach 74,721,315 in 2050, against the UK total of 77,177,523.
At that point the UK will have the highest population of any European country.
The central reason for Britain’s increasing numbers is immigration, the projections said.
Without immigration or emigration, Eurostat’s projections said, the British population in 2050 would be just 67,251,838, more than two million below numbers in France if they too were unaffected by migration.
With no impact of immigration on numbers, the population of Britain would actually fall by 2080, the Eurostat estimates said.
The official count of Britain’s population by the ONS put the UK total at 65.1 million at the end of June 2015.
According to the EU projections, if there was no immigration or emigration, the effects of ageing and lower birth rates would mean number would begin to fall from 2050 and there would be 64,710,496 people in the UK at the beginning of 2080.
The scale of the increase in future numbers – and the Eurostat interpretation which says that the great bulk of rising population in Britain is a result of migration – underline the extent of the concerns that fuelled the Brexit referendum vote last year.
Without high rates of immigration, they said, numbers in Britain would remain lower than those in France for half a century and longer. Above is a stock image of Marseille
Germany, despite continuing high levels of immigration, will have an ageing and falling population for the foreseeable future, the EU agency said. Above is a stock image of the Berlin skyline
Critics of immigration fear growing pressure on housing, transport, education, power and water, and health services, especially in southern England which attracts the majority of arriving immigrants.
Britain already has the greatest population density – the official measure of crowding – of any of the major countries of Europe.
Only the Netherlands and tiny Malta have more people crammed into each square kilometre of land in the UK, and in southern England, where there are 465 people to every square kilometre, density is on track to overtake that in the Netherlands.
Eurostat said: ‘Population projections are what-if scenarios that aim to provide information about the likely future size and structure of the population.
‘Eurostat’s population projections are one of several possible population change scenarios based on specific assumptions for fertility, mortality and migration.’
Only the Netherlands (pictured) and Malta have more people crammed into each square kilometre of land in the UK
The EU estimates are based on varying assessments of the future size of the central measure of the impact of immigration, net migration. Net migration into the UK, which takes into account both immigration and emigration, is expected by Eurostat to peak at just under 210,000 a year in 2014.
However net migration in Britain was measured by the ONS at 335,000 in the year to June 2016.
Britain’s population was higher than that of France in the 1960s, but European prosperity and British stagnation in the 1970s led to a reversal.
During the decade emigration from Britain was higher than immigration, and numbers in France overtook the British population in the first half of the 1980s.
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