Majority of Canadians believe we’re in a recession
Economists might be debating whether we’re technically in one, and pundits might be wondering who really cares, but a majority of Canadians now believe we’re in a recession.
A new Forum Research poll shows 58 per cent of Canucks now think our economy is contracting. Though it didn’t ask Canadians to define a recession — which is, technically, two terms of negative growth — in an election year, what they feel about that question might be more indicative. The national survey of over 1,200 people was conducted July 19 and 20, after the Bank of Canada again cut interest rates and signalled the country may have fallen into recession in the first half of 2015. It asked: “As far as you know, is Canada in a recession or not?”
“While the official marker of a recession is two quarters of negative growth, recessions really start when people believe they do, which seems to have occurred already,” said Forum Research President Lorne Bozinoff in a statement.
About a third of Canadians — 29 per cent — don’t believe the economy is contracting and 13 per cent have no opinion. Those younger than 45 are most likely to think the economy is in trouble at 62 per cent; 62 per cent of men think the country is on shaky ground compared to 54 per cent of women. Higher income earners, Albertans and a whopping 70 per cent of New Democrats also think the country’s economic engine is squealing.
Self-identified Conservatives aren’t so sure about all the fuss, only 37 per cent of them think the country’s GDP is shrinking.
“While government supporters are eager to pin the blame on a general global economic downturn, opposition parties are much more eager to lay blame at the government’s feet, either because of their poor monetary policy or their single minded focus on Canada’s energy sector,” Bozinoff said.
That could be good news for Prime Minister Stephen Harper, because it shows at least his base still has faith in him as an economic steward, a major narrative for his Conservative Party going into the election, expected in October.
Canadians also have a hard time pinning the blame for the recession — though “it’s complicated” and “there’s no one thing” were not options:
Conservatives are most likely to blame the oil crash at 38 per cent or the global economy at 30 per cent, compared to 26 and 28 per cent of Liberals respectively, and 29 and 23 per cent of New Democrats. The poll’s margin of error of plus or minus three per cent, 19 times out of 20, leaves little daylight between those numbers.
Opposition supporters are also more likely to blame the government for the crash, though not by an overwhelming majority: 20 per cent of Liberals blamed “government monetary policies” compared to 22 per cent of New Democrats — though it should be noted “monetary policy” is strictly the purview of the Bank of Canada.
The survey offers pundits one clear take away: a general sense that things are not going well, which as Bill Clinton advisor James Carville put it so succinctly in the 1992 president race, might just be enough to change the government. Why? “It’s the economy, stupid.”
source: Majority of Canadians believe we’re in a recession, but split along party lines in assigning blame: Poll | National Post
Economists might be debating whether we’re technically in one, and pundits might be wondering who really cares, but a majority of Canadians now believe we’re in a recession.
A new Forum Research poll shows 58 per cent of Canucks now think our economy is contracting. Though it didn’t ask Canadians to define a recession — which is, technically, two terms of negative growth — in an election year, what they feel about that question might be more indicative. The national survey of over 1,200 people was conducted July 19 and 20, after the Bank of Canada again cut interest rates and signalled the country may have fallen into recession in the first half of 2015. It asked: “As far as you know, is Canada in a recession or not?”
“While the official marker of a recession is two quarters of negative growth, recessions really start when people believe they do, which seems to have occurred already,” said Forum Research President Lorne Bozinoff in a statement.
About a third of Canadians — 29 per cent — don’t believe the economy is contracting and 13 per cent have no opinion. Those younger than 45 are most likely to think the economy is in trouble at 62 per cent; 62 per cent of men think the country is on shaky ground compared to 54 per cent of women. Higher income earners, Albertans and a whopping 70 per cent of New Democrats also think the country’s economic engine is squealing.
Self-identified Conservatives aren’t so sure about all the fuss, only 37 per cent of them think the country’s GDP is shrinking.
“While government supporters are eager to pin the blame on a general global economic downturn, opposition parties are much more eager to lay blame at the government’s feet, either because of their poor monetary policy or their single minded focus on Canada’s energy sector,” Bozinoff said.
That could be good news for Prime Minister Stephen Harper, because it shows at least his base still has faith in him as an economic steward, a major narrative for his Conservative Party going into the election, expected in October.
Canadians also have a hard time pinning the blame for the recession — though “it’s complicated” and “there’s no one thing” were not options:
- 28 per cent blame falling oil prices
- 24 per cent the global economy
- 17 per cent Canadian government monetary policy
- 14 per cent think the last recession never ended
- less than one per cent blame Greece
Conservatives are most likely to blame the oil crash at 38 per cent or the global economy at 30 per cent, compared to 26 and 28 per cent of Liberals respectively, and 29 and 23 per cent of New Democrats. The poll’s margin of error of plus or minus three per cent, 19 times out of 20, leaves little daylight between those numbers.
Opposition supporters are also more likely to blame the government for the crash, though not by an overwhelming majority: 20 per cent of Liberals blamed “government monetary policies” compared to 22 per cent of New Democrats — though it should be noted “monetary policy” is strictly the purview of the Bank of Canada.
The survey offers pundits one clear take away: a general sense that things are not going well, which as Bill Clinton advisor James Carville put it so succinctly in the 1992 president race, might just be enough to change the government. Why? “It’s the economy, stupid.”
source: Majority of Canadians believe we’re in a recession, but split along party lines in assigning blame: Poll | National Post