The Trigger Of World War III?

china

Time Out
Jul 30, 2006
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Ottawa ,Canada
The Trigger Of World War III? – Analysis


Published: June 16, 2012
By Giovanni Daniele Valvo
On February 23, 2012, the controversial leader of Russia’s Liberal Democratic Party Vladimir Zhirinovsky predicted the possible outbreak of World War III this summer. According to the former Russian army colonel, as soon as Syria is annihilated, a blow will be struck against Iran. At that point, “Azerbaijan might take advantage of that state to re-seize Nagorno-Karabakh. The Republic of Armenia will act in opposition to it, while Turkey will support Azerbaijan. That’s how we’ll in summer be caught in a war,” Zhirinovsky explained.
Although the Russian politician is not new to this kind of interventions, the risk that the Caucasus might indeed be the trigger of a new world war is all but unlikely. Earlier this year, Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliyev said Baku is buying up modern weaponry to be able to regain control of the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region quickly and with few losses should peace talks with neighbouring Armenia fail. Negotiations to end the conflict have been held under the auspices of the so-called Minsk Group since 1992, but so far results have been inconclusive.
The borders of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast

Azerbaijan is a natural ally of Turkey and an adversary of Iran. NATO partner since 1994 through its participation to the Alliance’s Partnership for Peace program, Baku is also one of the most geo-strategically important allies of the West in the pipelines war against Russia, being both a supporter and a potential supplier of the Washington-backed Nabucco gas pipeline project. On the other side, Armenia is a close ally of Russia and Iran, both interested in countering Turkish and US influence over the Caspian region.
Given this geopolitical context, to which are added NATO-Russia tensions over US missile defense plans in Europe and Azerbaijani-Russian disagreements over the renewal of the Gabala radar station lease, a spike in violence in the Caucasus might indeed trigger a major conflict between a US-led coalition consisting of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Israel on one side, and a Sino-Russian bloc including Armenia and Iran on the other side. Nevertheless, although five of the eight countries involved are de facto nuclear powers, a World War III between them would not necessarily imply the use of nuclear weapons.
In fact, a conflict originating from tensions in the Caucasus-Caspian region would be local in scope, but global in extent and consequences, being thus able to be considered a world war. Such a confrontation would have some of the characteristics of the Cold War, being the result of at least three proxy conflicts (Azerbaijan against Armenia, Iran against Azerbaijan, Turkey against Iran); nevertheless, given the nuclear potential of the countries diplomatically involved, it could not last more than a few days, being decided by both compellence and deterrence strategies fielded by the United States, Russia and China.
According to the New York Times, Russian fighter jets stationed in Armenia have conducted about 300 training flights since the beginning of 2012, increasing the number of flying hours by more than 20 percent from last year. Although Kirill Kiselev, an officer of the press service in the Southern Military District in Gyumri, assured the “Intensification of flights of Russian air-unit of N102 military base has been recorded in the framework of combat training program,” such a hyperactivity of Russian air forces might be a warning that Moscow could intervene at any moment should a war break out.
Nevertheless, only strong Chinese support can allow Russia to successfully continue its deterrence strategy aimed at avoiding US-sponsored military interventions both in the Caucasus (Nagorno-Karabakh) and the Middle East (Syria and Iran). Strong of its 3 million soldiers, who make the People’s Liberation Army the world’s largest military force, China would in fact be able to wage any kind of conflict with an overwhelming conventional superiority. Should Beijing gain access to military facilities in countries such as Kazakhstan and Pakistan, a Western attack on Tehran and its allies would therefore become an extremely remote possibility. In that case, the setback suffered by the US–Israel axis of having to de facto accept Iran’s nuclearization would already be, in itself, a victory for the Sino-Russian bloc, as well a practical realization of what Sun Tzu considered as the “apex of strategy:” to win a fight without fighting.
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Here they go again .
 

L Gilbert

Winterized
Nov 30, 2006
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Nah. WW3 will be triggered by that pint-sized wingnut in North Korea. Or even more entertaining, by Marvin or those dingbats that go on that one-way trip to Mars. I mean a war between Earth and Mars would be a real world war, wouldn't it?
 

damngrumpy

Executive Branch Member
Mar 16, 2005
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While there are a few flaws some of information is true. The long conflict between the two
nations is a problem especially for oil companies. The reason Yugoslavia became a target
was because they refused to allow pipelines out to the sea at the time. There was also
some speculation that Afghanistan originally was interested in pipelines going through part
of their territory. Economics and politics got in the way.
Don't scoff at two little countries like this either. WWI was started by some insignificant
nation and an assassin bullet. Duke Ferdinands assassination if some don't recall.
Wars start in the damnedest of place while everyone is watching the obvious.
Not out of the question but we should be paying attention. Oil from the region must flow
through these warring territories and when oil does not flow there are problems
 

wulfie68

Council Member
Mar 29, 2009
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While there are a few flaws some of information is true. The long conflict between the two nations is a problem especially for oil companies. The reason Yugoslavia became a target was because they refused to allow pipelines out to the sea at the time. There was also some speculation that Afghanistan originally was interested in pipelines going through part of their territory. Economics and politics got in the way. Don't scoff at two little countries like this either. WWI was started by some insignificant nation and an assassin bullet. Duke Ferdinands assassination if some don't recall. Wars start in the damnedest of place while everyone is watching the obvious. Not out of the question but we should be paying attention. Oil from the region must flow through these warring territories and when oil does not flow there are problems

While I agree that we shouldn't ignore the lessons history teaches us, we also need to be careful in drawing too many parallels with past events as well. The alliances aren't as firm as they were prior to WW I (or II for that matter) and that was a big part in what happened. I don't doubt that tensions could flare up and even that hostilities could break out but too many people are mindful of what escalations could bring... and that includes leaders/politicians.
 

Sal

Hall of Fame Member
Sep 29, 2007
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Full employment! Technological advance!

Yeah, yeah, yeah, sixty million dead. They woulda died anyhow.
emancipation of women, now set free to work since all males are gone and women are needed to step in, the list continues