How long have we been keeping serious records of the planet and the weather? 150 years maybe? As good as science is, they still haven't learned the basics of deciphering the planet. Drilling into Arctic ice or extracting cores from the earth is helpful, but scientists are in the learning curve as to what all this 'evidence' means. And let's face it, cores or old ice aren't really evidence, unless we understand what it is that we're looking at.
I've posted this somewhere here before, but anyway,
Our Wacky Weather People
copyright 2015 - murphy
These days, everyone under 50 figures that computers and technology are the answer to everything. There’s no doubt that some of life’s burdens have been lightened because of micro-miniature and solid state, but you can't - and shouldn't - rely on computer chips or an iPhone for accurate weather forecasts - at least, not yet. There are less technical things that micro-chips haven't managed to get a handle on. Farmers can attest to that.
Take the weather for example.
We have weathermen, or climatologists, or meteorologists or whatever they're calling themselves these days. They've been to the finest schools, many receive healthy paycheques and most use very expensive, complex technology to try and figure out the weather. But ask a farmer if he relies on all that pricey equipment. Most will say no, at least, not for the long term. In 2015, predicting the weather is still a three day gamble at best. Leave the long term forecasting to shamans. They're better at it.
When you're wrong so often, you'd think anonymity would be a comfort, but that ain't necessarily so. There are some, like senior Environment Canada climatologist David Phillips, that are known to Canadians, and seemingly, like to be in the public eye. I've often wondered how he deals with sayin' stuff in the media that turns out to be hogwash later on. I'm talkin' about statements like,
"This winter is going to be milder (or colder) than last year."
And winter comes and goes and it wasn't milder (or colder) than last year. Sayin' stuff like that on camera has got to be an embarrassment sometimes.
Or maybe it's us. Maybe we've become so jaded that we ignore stuff like that, knowing it's likely BS, but not expecting what is wrong will be righted. I wonder, do more people accept improper billing statements, companies that do not honour product warranties, or government promises these days?
"I'm from the government, and I'm here to help."
The old expression that only the weatherman can be so consistently wrong and keep his job has never been truer than now. That's because they are trying to predict an entire season or year's worth of weather, when they cannot manage to accurately predict how things will be on the weekend!
In every other human endeavour, consistently making mistakes and being wrong lands you on the unemployment line. Not so in the weather game. The only way they lose their job it seems, is by dying.
Nature's way of teaching all the earth's creatures to survive is, 'Learn from your mistakes and become better'. This doesn't seem to be the way with the weather people though. Sadder still, their management lets it continue. They feed the mediocrity.
Whether you want to call it the biosphere, Mother Nature, or simply, the planet, climatologists haven't figured out how to foretell the weather. That's because technology does not control things, the earth does. As a group, I think climo-meteo-weatherologists are too embarrassed to accept that they cannot see into the future.
I'm alright with them trying to get better, but it's probably in everyone's interest for the soothsayers at Environment Canada or the scientific community to remain cloistered until they can accurately nail down the mystery that is the weather. Don't let your people speak publicly about stuff that still baffles them. Stick to what you know. Stick with predicting what's gonna happen three days into the future, and be done with it. Accept your limitations. You can keep working on deciphering Mother Nature and the long term weather in private.
I guess what I trying to say is, if you don't know, shut the hell up.