308 -NDP Official Opposition???

Goober

Hall of Fame Member
Jan 23, 2009
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ThreeHundredEight.com


Interesting comments if Layton keeps the steam rolling his way. Many are tired of the Cons 7 libs - green was a protest vote for many. Is the NDP gaining from those voters???? Who knows.

Libs would be gutted.


And now the New Democrats. It's been a stellar week, and though I haven't gone back to run the numbers I can say with confidence that we wouldn't have seen anything close to this week's ceiling for the NDP earlier in the campaign.

With 29% of the vote (32% in British Columbia, 22% in Alberta, 35% in the Prairies, 24% in Ontario, 36% in Quebec, and 38% in Atlantic Canada), the New Democrats would win 83 seats. Yes, that's right. They would win 11 in British Columbia, two in Alberta, eight in the Prairies, 19 in Ontario, 31 in Quebec, and 11 in Atlantic Canada. It would be about twice their historic best.

The Conservatives would still win 145 seats and have first crack at a minority government. The Liberals would be reduced to 50 seats while the Bloc Québécois would win only 30. Jack Layton becomes the Leader of the Official Opposition, and the first man the Governor-General turns to if the Conservatives are unable to get a Throne Speech or budget passed.
 

taxslave

Hall of Fame Member
Nov 25, 2008
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You can't predict seats by popular vote with any accuracy due to the disparity in riding populations. This would only work if we had some kind of proportional representation.
 

Cliffy

Standing Member
Nov 19, 2008
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You can't predict seats by popular vote with any accuracy due to the disparity in riding populations. This would only work if we had some kind of proportional representation.
That is unfortunately true. We need to scrap this stupid system where some party with only 36% of the popular vote can get a majority government.
 

Goober

Hall of Fame Member
Jan 23, 2009
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You can't predict seats by popular vote with any accuracy due to the disparity in riding populations. This would only work if we had some kind of proportional representation.

Do they not also do riding by ring reults?
 

damngrumpy

Executive Branch Member
Mar 16, 2005
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kelowna bc
The problem is more interesting than that. this could turn out to be a head on run between the
NDP and Tories in many riding's and if Jack picks up those seats in Quebec Iggy could be the
odd man out. A couple of things to watch for. How will the NDP do against some of the
Liberal riding's if the slippage continues? Some suggest that if the orange wave continues the
Liberal vote might in fact collapse in some of those close riding's.
Secondly if tradition holds the two parties get closer together as the undecided vote shrinks.
Given that 13% of the vote is still undecided it could get real close. The Tories are likely to drop
a few points and a second place NDP could be right on their heals going into the last two or three
days.
I suspect Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon we will see the trend firm up as the polls
will be setting the undecided's into the mix as committed voters. This could be a historic election
the like we have not seen since the 1958 Dief the Chief election. Who said Canadian politics is
boring.
 

earth_as_one

Time Out
Jan 5, 2006
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Cool. Looks like the people want a real change. Its about time Canadians stopped flipping back and forth between Libs and Cons and gave someone with a vision a chance.