Another Poll Another Bad Day For Liberals

[damngrumpy]

I got news of a new poll tonight that shows a major change once again. An IPSOS Reid poll
for the Globe and Mail, I believe shows the NDP nationally has moved ahead of the Liberal
nationally, but the Tories are dangerously close to the majority range. Things are shifting,
switching and changing almost daily, but Iggy is going down in flames at this point.

 

[oldrebel]

I saw that poll too. Halelujah!!!!!
Hopefully we'll see Harper with a majority and Layton as official opposition.
And Iggy gone for good! There's something really repugnant about that man.

 

[Mowich]

I saw that poll too. Halelujah!!!!!
Hopefully we'll see Harper with a majority and Layton as official opposition.
And Iggy gone for good! There's something really repugnant about that man.

I like that scenario very much, old rebel. An economist at the helm and a socialist to add heart to the gov - not a bad thing at all.

 

[cranky]

I saw that poll too. Halelujah!!!!!
Hopefully we'll see Harper with a majority and Layton as official opposition.
And Iggy gone for good! There's something really repugnant about that man.

Personally, I would enjoy congratulating Mr Harper and Mr Layton.

 

[Dexter Sinister]

I saw those poll results too, and there's something odd about them. There were three of them reported in this morning's Globe & Mail, from Ekos, Nanos, and Ipsos Reid, and at least one of them is seriously wrong. The Ekos poll gives the Conservatives 34.4% plus or minus 2.1 points, which statistically means they're 95% confident the true value is between 32.3 and 36.5%. Ipsos Reid gives the Conservatives 43% plus or minus 3.1 points, for a range of 39.9 to 46.1%. The ranges don't overlap at all, and differ by more than the margin of uncertainty.

 

[oldrebel]

Polls are like statistics, not to be relied upon.
the only consistancy is the placement of the candidates so far. The margins are debatable.

 

[Dexter Sinister]

Well no, statistics can be relied upon if they're used honestly and people understand their limitations, but I've yet to see political poll results used honestly, so I agree with you there, polls are not to be relied on. That piece in the Globe & Mail this morning, for instance, had a banner at the top showing the results for the four largest parties, no mention of the Greens or any other party and no mention of the undecided vote, which when I've seen it mentioned tends to be around 18% if I remember correctly. Ipsos Reid showing the Tories at 43% clearly puts them into majority territory, but if there are 18% still undecided, that's really 43% of 82%, or around 35% of all voters, clearly still in minority territory. The way the results are presented assumes the undecided vote will be distributed on voting day the same way the decided vote is, which ain't necessarily so. These polls are also conducted by telephone, and anybody who doesn't have a land line--which is quite a few people these days, especially among younger folks--will never be part of one, so the sample is skewed. There's also no accounting in polling for people who won't vote, which as a percentage of all voters is generally larger than the level of support shown for any party. It's also known that publishing poll results affects people's voting behaviour in ways that can't be corrected for in the polling process.

 

[damngrumpy]

A poll is nothing more than a snapshot in time on a given day. Where things begin to change
is if a trend or wave develops. The Tories peaked early and the Liberals right after that. The
NDP could be experiencing that wave effect or peaking late. Also Jack gained from the debate
and the idea of the guy with the cane or crutch hammering away day after day. The other thing
is that jack has stayed with the issues and criticism comes after the position on a subject.
The undecided vote is huge here and so is the youth vote. Undecideds are likely hanging in or
around 13% to 15% still and that means much of the electorate is moving away from the
Liberals, Bloc and Conservatives but I think more from Iggy and the Bloc. If the present trend
were to continue the Liberals are done for a long time.
The other major factor here is the Conservatives and the NDP are slugging it out in the main
theatre, Ontario and BC with the battleground Quebec heading away from Harper in general.
There is a real chance of a minority and the NDP in official opposition status, if that were to happen
people would see just how thin the Liberal ranks really are. I think Jack is going to be a huge
factor in the outcome.

 

[Mowich]

I have a feeling that if Jack continues to rise in the polls we may be seeing a sea change in Canada.

 

[cranky]

I just watched the english debates on youtube, even though I wont vote for him, I congratulate Jack Layton for doing so well.

 

[Mowich]

I just watched the english debates on youtube, even though I wont vote for him, I congratulate Jack Layton for doing so well.

In spite of my political beliefs, I give Jack full credit for his performance during both debates. Much of his current rise in the polls is due his ability to get his message across whilst using fabulous sound bites to point out his opponents short comings. I actually cheered him when he pointed out Iggy's pitiful house record. I hope the NDPs numbers continue to rise - I would not mourn the end of the current Liberal party for a moment.

 

[cranky]

Yep, most of us understand that showing up to work is a basic requirement to keep our jobs, I'm shocked that a politician that is making a run for the PMO would tempt their opposition by having a poor attendance record.

 

[oldrebel]

Mr. Layton's a nice guy and no doubt he's sincere. But his policies are unrealistic and couldn't possible be achieved without the deficit skyrocketing. The opposition would never support most of his bills.
I think one reason he has done so well is that he hasn't indulged n the attack ads as much as the others. Ignatieff's every other word is an attack. I don't like that.
Regardless of who is elected, if it's a minority all we will see is bickering and do-nothingness. I'm so bloody sick of minorites and talk of coalitions, I just hope for a majority this time.

 

[mentalfloss]

Not in my riding, lol.

At the poll booth, I could tell I was swimming in a sea of conservative voters. I think the cons might easily have the majority this time.

Mr. Layton's a nice guy and no doubt he's sincere. But his policies are unrealistic and couldn't possible be achieved without the deficit skyrocketing.

Not enough juice, sorry. You have to break down costs and services for this to be an effective argument.

And the conservative governments of the past have usually been the ones skyrocketing debt and deficit, which is pretty counter intuitive to the whole platform. $35 Billion for fighter jets (whether they are warranted or not) is ALOT of money that NDP would not be supporting. That's at least $1000 bucks out of each tax payer's pocket.