Tonight or Tomrrow a new Poll a Game Changer?

[damngrumpy]

Some of my old media buddies are a buzz about a new poll coming out tonight
or tomorrow suggesting that Jack Layton is gaining serious ground in Quebec.
Some are saying if the trend and the numbers continue, Layton could win some
20 or more seats in that Province. Would that be a game changer or what?
Quebec citizens may give a Federalist Party the nod over the Bloc but they are
not ready to give Harper the nod, this could have serious implications for the
Liberal Party. If Layton got twenty seats or more the Liberals would not only have
a set back they could implode, before the next election.
I hope the rumors are true.

 

[Retired_Can_Soldier]

Sounds like an NDP wet dream, but it would certainly upset the apple cart.

 

[Cliffy]

I like upsetting apple carts (not grumpy's apples though).

 

[s_lone]

The NDP is clearly on the rise here in Quebec... But 20 seats?!!! That would change the whole dynamic of federal politics (in Quebec at least). Let's just say I'm rather skeptical for the time being... But who knows what could happen... People are eager for a change of political dynamics in Quebec.

One sure thing is that Duceppe is suddenly focusing more on Layton...

 

[damngrumpy]

Re: Tonight or Tomorrow a new Poll a Game Changer?

If you go back to the early winter there was a poll that demonstrated hard core support
for the separatists was down to about 38% or somewhere near that. This could well
indicate that Quebecers might send more Federalists to Ottawa but they would still have
their say voting against the Liberals and the Conservatives. Quebecers do not want the
Conservatives to have a majority and they are not for the the Harper Conservatives period.

These were not my figures I am repeating what some of the media reaction is. I believe it
is called the Cross poll that centered on Quebec. Many believe Layton stole the debate in
that Province, that I don't know, but it appears there may be some truth to that. I got my
information from some old news guys that know I have a long history in the political arena,
having worked on a number of campaigns over the last few decades. I am not active any
more and I see ideas in several parties that could help this country.

My understanding is the poll clearly indicates there is some serious movement in Quebec
and if it gained traction it could have implications for the Liberal Base in Ontario and deny
the Conservatives a break though there. 20 seats in a split up of the existing parties all
depends on if what they call a political wave starts. The last twelve days has seen many
upsets and changes of direction over the years in this country and this could be one of them.

If the people of Quebec decide to support a federalist party I would be willing to be they are
not going to go back to the parties that they turned away from in the past. Quebecers are not
going to the polls to vote the Conservatives, and at this juncture they are not going to vote
Liberal, so where else would they go? I think if the wave gets going the NDP could break through
and this would be one of the biggest game changers in any election in the last forty years.

 

[s_lone]

Re: Tonight or Tomorrow a new Poll a Game Changer?

If the people of Quebec decide to support a federalist party I would be willing to be they are
not going to go back to the parties that they turned away from in the past. Quebecers are not
going to the polls to vote the Conservatives, and at this juncture they are not going to vote
Liberal, so where else would they go? I think if the wave gets going the NDP could break through
and this would be one of the biggest game changers in any election in the last forty years.

This certainly is very interesting, I'm looking forward to see how this unfolds.

I will either vote for the Bloc or the NDP because in my riding (Papineau), I'd much rather see the Bloc candidate win than Justin Trudeau for the Liberals. And last election was a pretty close call between the Libs and the Bloc (Justin Trudeau won)

Now I will probably vote Bloc because while there could be a wave of support for the NDP, I doubt that it would be that strong in my riding. I'm pretty sure it's gonna be another close call between the Bloc and the Liberals. I want my vote to mean something and I won't waste it on the NDP if it's clear that the candidate won't win.

That's what happens with a voting system like ours, many people end up voting strategically. I'd love to support the NDP but not if it means wasting my vote. Of course I will wait and see. If the wave of support takes on unexpected proportions I might change my mind. And if we had a different voting system I would think differently.

I don't feel bad at all voting for the Bloc if that's what I end up doing. Beyond the ''Quebec'' issue, the Bloc and the NDP are pretty close in terms of political views. They are as democratic as any other party. And a vote for the Bloc is NOT a vote for separation despite all the federalist rhetoric you'll hear.

 

[Retired_Can_Soldier]

Re: Tonight or Tomorrow a new Poll a Game Changer?

I don't feel bad at all voting for the Bloc if that's what I end up doing. Beyond the ''Quebec'' issue, the Bloc and the NDP are pretty close in terms of political views. They are as democratic as any other party. And a vote for the Bloc is NOT a vote for separation despite all the federalist rhetoric you'll hear.

You are right, The Bloc is for leveraging Quebec interests, nothing more, which is why I think they should have to run outside of Quebec if they are going sit in Ottawa as a federal party. Although, if it will shut Justin Trudeau out, I hope your guy wins Sean.

 

[s_lone]

Re: Tonight or Tomorrow a new Poll a Game Changer?

You are right, The Bloc is for leveraging Quebec interests, nothing more, which is why I think they should have to run outside of Quebec if they are going sit in Ottawa as a federal party. Although, if it will shut Justin Trudeau out, I hope your guy wins Sean.

Wow... your disdain for Trudeau must really run deep!

You know I would actually kind of understand Canada for making the Bloc ''illegal'' in Ottawa, although I think the backlash from Quebecers wouldn't be worth it. And what would stop the Bloc organization to simply run as some form of coalition of independent candidates? To make the Bloc ''illegal'' in Ottawa, you'd really have to change the system from top to bottom.

 

[El Barto]

I wouldn't be surprised with the PQ's confidence vote for Marios and the radical soveriegnty push , that is now backed by Duceppe may have pushed some voters away.... It may also be that this political impass is getting old .. If the NDP does get lots of seats in Quebec , then we are looking at a minority government , the Liberals seem to be suffering badly .... may cause that party to look for a new leader again....and Hopefully , oh so Hopefully Harper will pull a Martin and just drop out ....... In my books this looks like a win win scenario

Wow... your disdain for Trudeau must really run deep!

You know I would actually kind of understand Canada for making the Bloc ''illegal'' in Ottawa, although I think the backlash from Quebecers wouldn't be worth it. And what would stop the Bloc organization to simply run as some form of coalition of independent candidates? To make the Bloc ''illegal'' in Ottawa, you'd really have to change the system from top to bottom.

I have no love for Trudeau either ....he is only running on his fathers coat tail....

 

[Liberalman]

Nobody knows the truth about Jack’s illness and
he will step aside and the NDP will get a new leader and the problem is that no
one knows whom that will be.

 

[Liberalman]

Nobody knows the truth about Jack’s illness and
he will step aside and the NDP will get a new leader and the problem is that no
one knows whom that will be.

 

[JLM]

That's one of the major problems with politics.............no one questions where these come from. If you want an honest and competent politician, you'd be pretty safe with a guy who spent his life on the green chain or setting chokers.

 

[s_lone]

So the polls are out...

A CROP poll puts the NDP first in Quebec at 36% in before the Bloc at 31%.

Another poll by Ekos puts the NDP at 31,1% and the Bloc 23,7%...

We'll have to wait for the next polls to confirm anything but they are a clear indicative of a favourable trend for the NDP in Quebec...

 

[Avro]

So the polls are out...

A CROP poll puts the NDP first in Quebec at 36% in before the Bloc at 31%.

Another poll by Ekos puts the NDP at 31,1% and the Bloc 23,7%...

We'll have to wait for the next polls to confirm anything but they are a clear indicative of a favourable trend for the NDP in Quebec...

If true watch Gillies come out swinging.

Hard for him considering the Bloc share many of the same political leanings.

 

[El Barto]

Percentage polls may not mean more seats tho , just better chances of getting some.

 

[earth_as_one]

The CROP survey indicated NDP had the support of 36 per cent of respondents in Quebec, compared with 31 per cent for the Bloc Québécois.

The Conservatives were third with 17 per cent, and the Liberals were trailing with 13 per cent of vote, according to the poll. It was conducted online, surveying people between April 13 and 20, CROP said. The company surveyed 1,000 English and French speakers in Quebec, and the data were weighted for gender, age, language, and "social/cultural values."


A poll from Nanos showed the NDP gaining in support nationally, but the sample size for Quebec was too small to give results within an acceptable margin of error.


An Ekos poll for iPolitics.ca released Thursday suggests the NDP and Liberals are locked at 24.7 per cent voter support nationally, behind Stephen Harper's Conservatives at 34 per cent. Support for the Greens was at 7.8 per cent, while the Bloc trailed at 6.5 per cent, according to the survey.


Surging NDP support changes campaign dynamic - Canada Votes 2011 - CBC News

 

[Goober]

Percentage polls may not mean more seats tho , just better chances of getting some.

Tories 19 points up, NDP tops Liberals for second: Poll | Posted | National Post


If that spreads in favor of Jack. He will be quite nimble with more seats from Que

Duceppe was at Jack on the French language debate - Did you guys miss that??? But Jack also promised more powers for Quebec. Lastly i know there is about 20 % that are born to leave the ROC behind, but that leaves 80 % for the rest does it not. So it would appear if this continues for jack it will be a game changer.

Iggy screwed up, along with their tactics of sliding to the left and trying to take votes from the NDP - Better hunting, large amount of voters in the middle. Guess they could not understand that.
Tories 19 points up, NDP tops Liberals for second: Poll


Jack Layton’s NDP has bumped the Liberals out of second place nationally in public favor and the front-place Conservatives maintain a comfortable lead that could deliver them a majority government on May 2, according to results of a new poll.
The nationwide survey by Ipsos Reid, conducted exclusively for Postmedia News and Global TV, reveals a historic shift in public opinion has occurred as the political parties have fought for votes in this campaign.
If an election were held now, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives would receive 43 per cent of the vote among decided voters, up two points from two weeks ago.


A close look at the three largest regions reveals that:

• In Quebec, a four-way race is developing. The NDP (28 per cent) leads narrowly over the Bloc (27 per cent), with the Conservatives (24 per cent) and Liberals (20 per cent) close behind;

 

[wulfie68]

The other thing an increase in NDP support could do is deliver more Bloc seats via vote splitting: if the federalist vote is split, the Bloc doesn't need as many votes to overcome it, just as vote splitting could open the door to more Conservative seats in some parts of the country... similar to how Chretien won his majorities with the splitting of the PCs and Reform.

 

[Goober]

The other thing an increase in NDP support could do is deliver more Bloc seats via vote splitting: if the federalist vote is split, the Bloc doesn't need as many votes to overcome it, just as vote splitting could open the door to more Conservative seats in some parts of the country... similar to how Chretien won his majorities with the splitting of the PCs and Reform.

NDP on track to win 60 seats, poll projects - The Globe and Mail

Read this from the Globe - Interesting