Tory Descent Continues

FiveParadox

Governor General
Dec 20, 2005
5,875
43
48
Vancouver, BC
Support for Her Majesty’s Government for Canada continues to slip with the Canadian electorate, with the Conservative Party now having the support of only 30.5% of Canadians. Seat projections by EKOS Research conclude that the Government would stand to lose twenty-eight seats were a general election held today, reducing the Conservative presence in the House of Commons to one hundred sixteen voices. The research even concludes that the Conservatives would most probably be “unable to sustain even a minority government”.

Were an election held today, our party standing in the Commons would be:

  • 116 seats for Her Majesty’s Government (-28 seats)
  • 94 seats for Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition (+17 seats)
  • 56 seats for the Bloc Québécois (+8 seats)
  • 39 seats for the New Democratic Party (+3 seats)
  • 2 seats for the Green Party (+2 seats)

Interestingly, this is the lowest voter intention that the Conservatives have had since being invited to form the Government of Canada; also, approval of the direction of the federal government is at its lowest level in the eleven years that EKOS Research has tracked this information. Canadians are clearly unhappy with the leadership of The Right Honourable Stephen Harper P.C., M.P. (Calgary Southwest), the Prime Minister, but are just as clearly unsure who should replace the Conservative Party.

The less-than-ideal voter intentions for both the Government and Opposition have also prompted Mr. Frank Graves, an EKOS Research pollster, to suggest that we have entered a “strange new political world” in which Canadians may need to seriously consider coalitions as the only potential way to end our recent streak of minority governments, even going on to suggest that a Conservative-Liberal coalition may be one that makes the most mathematical sense. A coalition between a progressive and conservative party to provide stable government is not unheard of—we need only look to the Parliament of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the Mother of Parliaments, for a perfect example of how a coalition might be brought together.

Source
 

FiveParadox

Governor General
Dec 20, 2005
5,875
43
48
Vancouver, BC
Doesn't mean anything.

I think it means quite a bit; and I’m sure that Conservative members of the Commons are taking this as a shot by electors across the bow of the Good Ship Harper. The prime minister and his Government have spent the last several weeks taking every possible opportunity to erode the role that Parliament has to play in Canadian governance, and this research seems to indicate that Canadians are responding to this behaviour just as everyone (except for the oblivious Conservative Party) knew that they would. There are less than four percentage points now separating the Conservative and Liberal Parties; and with the shifts in the support of urban centre electors toward progressive parties, the first-past-the-post system makes the results of a potential general election very much unpredictable.
 

VanIsle

Always thinking
Nov 12, 2008
7,046
43
48
All depends on which poll you read - doesn't it!

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Ipsos-Reid Poll: 8-pt Conservative Lead



Ipsos-Reid released a new poll on the weekend, and it shows relative stability - though also a small drop for the Liberals. Compared to their last poll at the beginning of May, the Conservatives remain steady at 35%. The Liberals have dropped two to 27% while the New Democrats are stable at 16%.

The Greens are up two to 11% and the Bloc Québécois is holding at 10%.

Of note is that the Liberals lead among women, with 30% to the Tories' 27%. The Conservatives dominate among men, however, 42% to 24%.

In Ontario, the Liberals have taken the lead (38%) with a two point gain. The Conservatives drop three (33%) and the NDP is up two to 18%. Fake Lake?

In Quebec, the Bloc is up six points to 45%, followed by the Liberals at 21% (down two). The Conservatives fall away to 12%, down seven points. The NDP is down two to 11%. While this is a big number for the Bloc, they have been trending upwards across the board.

In British Columbia, the Tories are up four to 46%. The NDP is down four to 20%, the Liberals down five to 17%, and the Greens up five to 14%.

Then we get into very small sample sizes, demonstrated by the Tories' 11-point gain in Atlantic Canada, where they lead with an improbable 44%. The Liberals drop eight to 27% and the NDP drops ten to 15%.

In Alberta, the Tories are up six to 60%, followed by the Liberals (down 12) and the NDP (up seven), who are tied at 15%.

The Conservatives lead in the Prairies with 48%. The NDP is down six to 17% here.

The Conservatives win 75 seats in the West, 35 in Ontario, 3 in Quebec, and 12 in Atlantic Canada (they smack hard up against the ceiling here) for a total of 126.

The Liberals win 11 in the West and North, 55 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 97.

The Bloc wins 56 seats in Quebec, their best ever.

The NDP wins 8 seats in the West and North, 16 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 3 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 29.

Significantly, the Liberal-NDP total is 126 seats - tied with the Conservatives.
 

JLM

Hall of Fame Member
Nov 27, 2008
75,301
547
113
Vernon, B.C.
I think it means quite a bit; and I’m sure that Conservative members of the Commons are taking this as a shot by electors across the bow of the Good Ship Harper. The prime minister and his Government have spent the last several weeks taking every possible opportunity to erode the role that Parliament has to play in Canadian governance, and this research seems to indicate that Canadians are responding to this behaviour just as everyone (except for the oblivious Conservative Party) knew that they would. There are less than four percentage points now separating the Conservative and Liberal Parties; and with the shifts in the support of urban centre electors toward progressive parties, the first-past-the-post system makes the results of a potential general election very much unpredictable.

Yep, Harper hasn't done himself any favours with all the the stupidity regarding these summits, like the artificial lake, but give it a month and all that is forgotten. As for the Liberals under Ignatieff they just aren't a fit party to Govern There are two importnat things that Harper is doing (has done) right- lowering taxes for seniors and toughening up on crime (although on that he's only taken baby steps but they are in the right direction. Liberals are just too handy at squandering money. :smile:
 

CDNBear

Custom Troll
Sep 24, 2006
43,839
207
63
Ontario
Seems the propaganda campaign is working...

The prime minister and his Government have spent the last several weeks taking every possible opportunity to erode the role that Parliament has to play in Canadian governance...
What a load of shyte.

...and this research seems to indicate that Canadians are responding to this behaviour just as everyone (except for the oblivious Conservative Party) knew that they would.
And if they are actually responding to your ridiculous assertion, it's because the polled electorate is so woefully uninformed, and uneducated as to the historical facts, the truth of the matter, and been heavily influenced and overwhelmed by pure partisan propaganda BS, being foisted as proof of the demon cons hidden agenda to take over the world, by people like yourself.
All the parties and their leaders are lame.
The first thing we've agreed on in days.

Can it be thus by design?
It's pretty much a given one has to part with his/her morals to be a politician, so ya.

Tongue removed from cheek.
 
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CDNBear

Custom Troll
Sep 24, 2006
43,839
207
63
Ontario
How on earth could anyone vote for that gaggle of goofs in the Liberal party?
Simple, some people are so easily fooled, they will conveniently ignore over 200 acts of illegal, unethical or immoral behavior, because the cons have tried to hijack parliament, and have a hidden agenda.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
109,359
11,432
113
Low Earth Orbit
This summer will decide that fate of CPC's farm support. The finicky Western farmers are going to almost literally need "bail outs" with 2/3 of Sask and MB crops being rained out.

Food is going to get expensive.....
 

CDNBear

Custom Troll
Sep 24, 2006
43,839
207
63
Ontario
This summer will decide that fate of CPC's farm support. The finicky Western farmers are going to almost literally need "bail outs" with 2/3 of Sask and MB crops being rained out.

Food is going to get expensive.....
And the pandering and glad handing will get thick.
 

Machjo

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 19, 2004
17,878
61
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Ottawa, ON
There's no point focusing on the party. If the CPC ever collapses, don't think no new party will rise to fill the void. The same applies to the left by the way.
 

Cliffy

Standing Member
Nov 19, 2008
44,850
192
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Nakusp, BC
There's no point focusing on the party. If the CPC ever collapses, don't think no new party will rise to fill the void. The same applies to the left by the way.
Yup! I think we are being set up for something that will not make us happy at all.
 

Machjo

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 19, 2004
17,878
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Ottawa, ON
Also, let's suppose for the sake of argument that the CPC collapsed and that no other party filled the void, before you know, the Greens and Libs woudl likely shift right in a bid to rake up the right vote. The NDP would likely shift right too to pick up the votes the Greens and Libs lose on their left flanks. So even worst case scenario that no other party replaced the CPC, all that would then happen would be the other parties would all shift right anyway. It always balances out in the end.

For the sake of argument, let's say the NDP collapsed. Again, the Libs and Greens would likely shift left to rake up the left vote, and the CPC would shift left to rake up some of the votes lost on the right flank of the Green and Libs. Assuming of course no new party rose up to replace the NDp. You can play party politics all you want, but nothing but the names change if you get caught up in that game. That's why in the end it makes more sense to focus on the individual candidate. Heck, for all we know, if the CPC ever collapsed as a party, some of its members could decide to join the Libs and you'd be voting for the same guy anyway but undr a new party logo.

That's why party politics is a complete waste of time.

Yup! I think we are being set up for something that will not make us happy at all.

But no less happy than the current situation. Again, in the end it would just amount to a party name change, all cosmetic with no real change.
 

JLM

Hall of Fame Member
Nov 27, 2008
75,301
547
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Vernon, B.C.
[QUOTE
For the sake of argument, let's say the NDP collapsed. Again, the Libs and Greens would likely shift left to rake up the left vote, and the CPC would shift left to rake up some of the votes lost on the right flank of the Green and Libs. Assuming of course no new party rose up to replace the NDp. You can play party politics all you want, but nothing but the names change if you get caught up in that game.


.[/QUOTE]

Absolutely, none of the parties have any integrity, 1 or 2% of the politicians might have an iota. :lol::lol:
 

AnnaG

Hall of Fame Member
Jul 5, 2009
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