The more polls that come out with huge Conservative leads means less chance that these polls in general are wrong.
Whatever anyone thinks, the trend is clear. Conservative support is rising.
Tories closer to majority territory
Updated Thu. Apr. 5 2007 3:24 PM ET
Canadian Press
OTTAWA -- Stephen Harper's Conservatives are edging closer to support levels needed to win their coveted majority, a new poll suggests.
But the Decima survey also indicates voters are extremely volatile -- especially in Ontario and Quebec -- and forcing an election this spring remains a risky proposition for the prime minister.
The poll, provided exclusively to The Canadian Press, put Tory support at 39 per cent -- nine points ahead of the Liberals and within spitting distance of the 40 per cent mark generally needed to secure a majority.
The NDP were at 13 per cent, and the Greens and Bloc Quebecois were at eight per cent each.
The Tories were six points ahead of the Liberals in vote-rich Ontario and essentially tied with the Grits among urban and female voters, two demographic groups which have strongly favoured the Liberals in the past. However, the Tories were running third in Quebec, where the Bloc held a slim lead over the Liberals.
The poll comes amid heightened speculation about a spring election which all parties say they don't want but for which they are all feverishly preparing.
Decima CEO Bruce Anderson said the numbers suggest the Tories have had "some success'' in courting mainstream voters in the centre of the political spectrum.
"I think obviously these numbers suggest that the Conservatives have more forward momentum certainly than the Liberals do and momentum is a pretty good thing to have going into an election,'' Anderson said.
"At the same time, it would be a mistake to underestimate how competitive the Liberals are in Quebec and Ontario.''
The unstable numbers in Ontario, home to more than a third of the seats in the House of Commons, should make all parties cautious about the prospect of a spring election, he added.
Over the past seven weeks, Decima's weekly polls have put the Tories ahead three times in Ontario, the Liberals ahead three times and the two parties tied once. The most recent poll, conducted March 30-April 2, put the Tories ahead with 42 per cent to the Liberals' 36 per cent, the NDP's 11 per cent and the Green Party's nine per cent.
Anderson said that volatility goes beyond what could be accounted for by the survey's margin of error. Nationally, the telephone poll of just over 1,000 Canadians is accurate within 3.1 percentage points 19 times in 20. The margin is larger for small samples: 5.4 percentage points for Ontario and 6.2 percentage points for Quebec.
Anderson said the fluctuating results in Ontario suggest voters are disengaged, do not see much difference between the Tories and Liberals and are thus able to switch preferences for little apparent reason and with little enduring commitment. And that makes them highly unpredictable.
"In a world where people feel that the risk of trying different choices is relatively low because the economy is strong, there aren't big crisis issues, all the parties are gravitating towards the centre, then the chance that voters will do unexpected things in the course of an election goes up.''
Quebec results have bounced around somewhat over the past couple of months as well. The latest poll put the Bloc at 31 per cent for the second time in a month -- the lowest score the Bloc has earned in Decima polls over the past two years. The Liberals were close behind with 26 per cent while the Tories had 21 per cent and the Greens and NDP were tied at eight per cent.
Harper has repeatedly insisted he doesn't want an election, although his party has opened its campaign war room, begun airing television ads and gone on what many pundits have dubbed a pre-election spending binge. Liberals are convinced Harper will pull the plug on his minority government later this month.
Whatever anyone thinks, the trend is clear. Conservative support is rising.
Tories closer to majority territory
Updated Thu. Apr. 5 2007 3:24 PM ET
Canadian Press
OTTAWA -- Stephen Harper's Conservatives are edging closer to support levels needed to win their coveted majority, a new poll suggests.
But the Decima survey also indicates voters are extremely volatile -- especially in Ontario and Quebec -- and forcing an election this spring remains a risky proposition for the prime minister.
The poll, provided exclusively to The Canadian Press, put Tory support at 39 per cent -- nine points ahead of the Liberals and within spitting distance of the 40 per cent mark generally needed to secure a majority.
The NDP were at 13 per cent, and the Greens and Bloc Quebecois were at eight per cent each.
The Tories were six points ahead of the Liberals in vote-rich Ontario and essentially tied with the Grits among urban and female voters, two demographic groups which have strongly favoured the Liberals in the past. However, the Tories were running third in Quebec, where the Bloc held a slim lead over the Liberals.
The poll comes amid heightened speculation about a spring election which all parties say they don't want but for which they are all feverishly preparing.
Decima CEO Bruce Anderson said the numbers suggest the Tories have had "some success'' in courting mainstream voters in the centre of the political spectrum.
"I think obviously these numbers suggest that the Conservatives have more forward momentum certainly than the Liberals do and momentum is a pretty good thing to have going into an election,'' Anderson said.
"At the same time, it would be a mistake to underestimate how competitive the Liberals are in Quebec and Ontario.''
The unstable numbers in Ontario, home to more than a third of the seats in the House of Commons, should make all parties cautious about the prospect of a spring election, he added.
Over the past seven weeks, Decima's weekly polls have put the Tories ahead three times in Ontario, the Liberals ahead three times and the two parties tied once. The most recent poll, conducted March 30-April 2, put the Tories ahead with 42 per cent to the Liberals' 36 per cent, the NDP's 11 per cent and the Green Party's nine per cent.
Anderson said that volatility goes beyond what could be accounted for by the survey's margin of error. Nationally, the telephone poll of just over 1,000 Canadians is accurate within 3.1 percentage points 19 times in 20. The margin is larger for small samples: 5.4 percentage points for Ontario and 6.2 percentage points for Quebec.
Anderson said the fluctuating results in Ontario suggest voters are disengaged, do not see much difference between the Tories and Liberals and are thus able to switch preferences for little apparent reason and with little enduring commitment. And that makes them highly unpredictable.
"In a world where people feel that the risk of trying different choices is relatively low because the economy is strong, there aren't big crisis issues, all the parties are gravitating towards the centre, then the chance that voters will do unexpected things in the course of an election goes up.''
Quebec results have bounced around somewhat over the past couple of months as well. The latest poll put the Bloc at 31 per cent for the second time in a month -- the lowest score the Bloc has earned in Decima polls over the past two years. The Liberals were close behind with 26 per cent while the Tories had 21 per cent and the Greens and NDP were tied at eight per cent.
Harper has repeatedly insisted he doesn't want an election, although his party has opened its campaign war room, begun airing television ads and gone on what many pundits have dubbed a pre-election spending binge. Liberals are convinced Harper will pull the plug on his minority government later this month.
