By BRIAN LAGHI
Tuesday, February 20, 2007 Page
A1
OTTAWA BUREAU CHIEF
keyVal="_UNDEFINED_VALUE_"; esckeyVal=escape(keyVal); if(esckeyVal.indexOf('%')>-1){newstr=esckeyVal.replace( /%\d\d/gi, "");} else{newstr=esckeyVal;} skw=(newstr); if(skw=="_UNDEFINED_VALUE_"){skw="";} var szone="national-hub"; var smode="bn"; var sloc="lower"; var sURL_hub="national"; var sarena="";
a3=true;aW=300;aH=250;sBoxAd=true;
Canadians in overwhelming numbers say Stephen Harper is the most decisive federal leader with the clearest vision of where he wants to lead the country, according to a poll that suggests the Conservatives may now have the winning conditions needed for a spring election.
The new survey also finds that voters have failed to warm up to recently elected Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion, and that his party has lost its postconvention bounce to the Tories, who are seen to have the best handle on national issues.
Were an election to be held today, 34 per cent of voters would opt for the Conservatives, up three points from last month. The Liberals are at 29 per cent, down six points from the same period, while the New Democratic Party is down one point to 14 per cent. The main beneficiary appears to be the Green Party, which has the support of 12 per cent of voters, up from eight per cent.
"These numbers are good enough that I would start my election preparedness in earnest," said Allan Gregg, chairman of The Strategic Counsel, which produced the poll for The Globe and Mail-CTV News. "I would say, looking at this, something untoward would have to happen for him not to call it."
Advertisements
Mr. Gregg said the underlying favourability ratings may give Mr. Harper a better chance for a majority government than he had at the beginning of the campaign that led to his victory on Jan. 23, 2006. The Conservatives have moved a ways to establishing themselves as a governing party, he said.
"The potential to move his numbers are far greater this time than they were last time," he said. "I would assume if they're looking at these same numbers, they've said we're having a spring election, and something will have to happen between now and the early part of April for us not to have it."
The poll finds that 53 per cent of voters find Mr. Harper to be the most decisive of the four main party leaders, with 20 per cent opting for the NDP's Jack Layton.
Mr. Dion is the choice of 19 per cent, while Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe is picked by 29 per cent in Quebec.
On the question of who has the best vision for the nation, 50 per cent pick Mr. Harper; 22 per cent Mr. Dion and 20 per cent Mr. Layton.
Finally, with 36 per cent, Mr. Harper tops the field of who Canadians believe would be the best PM, doubling Mr. Dion's score of 18 per cent. Mr. Layton is seen as the best PM by 16 per cent, while Mr. Duceppe pulls the support of 24 per cent in Quebec.
Mr. Gregg said that while Mr. Harper has soared, Mr. Dion has not been able to capitalize on the honeymoon period he received from the convention. Even on the question of charisma, where the Prime Minister has not traditionally done well, Mr. Dion comes out at the bottom, with 20 per cent opting for him, compared to 36 per cent for Mr. Layton and 35 per cent for Mr. Harper.
"The thing I'd be very distressed about if I were Dion, is that, not only has he not established any prime-ministerial-in-waiting attributes, he's also got none of the attractive leader attributes."
Mr. Gregg said the poor results are due, in part at least, to the fact that Canadians don't know him.
In recent weeks, some senior Tories have begun discussing the possibility of an election after the federal budget, due in March, and have said they would campaign on their leader's decisiveness and other leadership characteristics.
Mr. Gregg said this calculation is borne out by the poll.
Nonetheless, the Tories are still only five points ahead and Mr. Harper will have to gamble that he can significantly out-campaign Mr. Dion to persuade Canadians he deserves a majority.
"They've got to be saying our chances of getting a majority are much better than they were in 2006, notwithstanding the fact that our current support is no better than election day."
The data also suggest that Canadians are becoming comfortable with the Conservatives' management of various issues.
For example, 31 per cent of those polled say they believe the Conservatives have the right approach in dealing with Canada's mission to Afghanistan, compared to 20 per cent who believe in the Liberals' strategy. Eleven per cent pick the NDP and, in Quebec, 20 per cent opt for the BQ.
Other concerns, like managing the economy and managing taxpayers' money, also see the Tories ahead. And even on issues where the Liberals are expected to be strong, the Tories have at least fought them to a virtual draw. For example, 23 per cent say the Liberals have the best plan for the environment, compared to 21 per cent for the NDP and 20 per cent for the Conservatives.
As a former environment minister, the issue of global warming is supposed to be one that Mr. Dion could capitalize on.
The poll results appear to show otherwise.
The survey, conducted Feb 15-18, polled 1,000 Canadians and is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
Which leader would do the best job as Prime Minister?
STEPHEN HARPER
36%
STÉPHANE DION
18%
SOURCE: THE STRATEGIC COUNSEL POLL FOR THE GLOBE AND MAIL AND CTV
Comfort for Conservatives
The Globe and Mail/CTV poll of 1,000 Canadians conducted between Feb. 15 and Feb. 18 found that support for the Tories remains high on various issues.
How would Canadians vote if an election were held today?
Conservatives 34%
Liberals 29%
NDP 14%
Bloc Québécois 11%
Green 12%
Which party do Canadians identify with most?
Conservatives 27%
Liberals 28%
Don't know/ No answer/ Refused 24%
NDP 12%
Bloc Québécois (Quebec only) 9%
Which party leader do Canadians identify with most?
Stephen Harper 33%
Stéphane Dion 15%
Don't know/ No answer/ Refused 27%
Jack Layton 17%
Gilles Duceppe 7%
Which party could do the best job of governing the country?
Conservatives 32%
Liberals 27%
Don't know/ No answer/ Refused 23%
NDP 13%
Bloc Québécois (Quebec only) 6%
Which party leader could do the best job as prime minister?
Stephen Harper 36%
Don't know/ No answer/ Refused 23%
Stéphane Dion 18%
Jack Layton 16%
Gilles Duceppe 6%
Which party is best able to manage the economy?
Conservatives 33%
Liberals 27%
Other/ Don't know/ Refused 24%
NDP 11%
Bloc Québécois 6%
Which party is best able to deal with U.S.-Canada relations?
Conservatives 37%
Liberals 28%
Other/ Don't know/ Refused 23%
NDP 8%
Bloc Québécois 5%
Which party can deal best with Canada's mission to Afghanistan?
Conservatives 31%
Other/ Don't know/ Refused 33%
Liberals 20%
NDP 11%
Bloc Québécois 5%
Which party can deal best with the environment and global warming?
Other/ Don't know/ Refused 31%
Liberals 23%
NDP 21%
Conservatives 20%
Bloc Québécois 6%
Which leader has the clearest vision of where he wants to take the country?
Stephen Harper 50%
Stéphane Dion 22%
Jack Layton 20%
Gilles Duceppe 8%
Which party leader is the most decisive?
Stephen Harper 53%
Stéphane Dion 19%
Jack Layton 20%
Gilles Duceppe 8%
Which party leader is the most charismatic?
Stephen Harper 35%
Stéphane Dion 20%
Jack Layton 36%
Gilles Duceppe 10%
***************************************
NOTE: Percentages may not add up to 100 because of rounding.
DEAN TWEED / THE GLOBE AND MAIL
SOURCE: THE STRATEGIC COUNSEL
