Sovereignty support down to 35%

Jersay

House Member
Dec 1, 2005
4,837
2
38
Independent Palestine
MONTREAL (CP) - Support for sovereignty dropped in Quebec in the immediate aftermath of the Conservative election victory that included a breakthrough in the province, according to a new poll.

ADVERTISEMENT







The poll by the Montreal-based CROP firm for Montreal La Presse newspaper suggested the number of Quebecers who supported an independent Quebec dropped to 34 per cent after the federal election from 43 per cent prior to the Jan. 23 federal election.

Maxime Bernier, one of 10 Conservative candidates elected in Quebec last week said Wednesday that addressing provincial concerns like the so-called fiscal imbalance between the provinces and the federal government will boost federalists in Quebec and Tory support across Canada.

"We must deliver," Bernier said.

But "if we don't deliver, we're going to be judged in two years, three years, four years."

The election results also helped increase support for Premier Jean Charest's Liberals, who had been consistently unpopular with Quebecers in recent polls.

According to the poll, support jumped to 27 per cent from 17 per cent for Charest's Liberals, while Parti Quebecois support dropped to 38 per cent from 44 per cent.

Of the 1,000 respondents, the number who said they would vote to keep Quebec as a province of Canada jumped to 58 per cent after the election from 49 per cent ahead of the election.

"It's significant," Claude Gauthier, vice president of CROP, told La Presse. "The changes are not minimal."

The pressure is now on prime minister-designate Stephen Harper and his Conservatives to deliver for the province or risk alienating Quebec federalists for good, warn pundits.

"This is all promise and expectations," said Pierre Martin, a professor of political science at the University of Montreal.

Voters who had given up on the federal Liberals have thrown their support behind the Conservatives, he said.

But "if things remain as they are or even become worse, then there will be a backlash," Martin said.

The poll asked respondents how they would vote today on the same question put to Quebecers in 1995 - sovereignty within a partnership with Canada.

Prior to the election, 49 per cent suggested they would have voted yes and 41 per cent said they would have voted no.

In the days after the Conservatives were elected, 41 per cent said they would have voted yes, compared with 53 per cent who would have voted no.

In total, 1,000 people were polled - 533 between Jan. 19 and election day and 467 from Jan. 24 to Jan. 29. The poll has a margin of error of four percentage points 19 times out of 20 for each of the two groups.

Parti Quebecois Leader Andre Boisclair said he was not discouraged by the poll.

Harper made many promises, he told reporters in Quebec City.

"It's up to him to deliver the goods," Boisclair said.

If Harper turns his back on Kyoto and reopens the debate on same-sex marriage or gun control - issues Boisclair said are important to Quebecers - "it will be to the advantage of the sovereigntist family."

The sovereigntist leader said the PQ has more than 80,000 members and Harper at the helm in Ottawa doesn't change that.

The PQ has said it will hold a sovereignty referendum in its first mandate if it wins the next provincial election.

The next provincial election is largely expected next year but Charest does not have to call an election until the spring of 2008.

Economic Development Minister Claude Bechard welcomed the poll, but blamed Boisclair for the failing separatist numbers.

He said Quebec voters are responding to overtures from a new federal government.

"I understand Mr. Boisclair to be a bit nervous," Bechard said
http://news.yahoo.com/s/cpress/20060201/ca_pr_on_na/que_sovereignty;_ylt=Amme72CHYap0SJO3QETU6_xvaA8F;_ylu=X3oDMTA5aHJvMDdwBHNlYwN5bmNhdA--
 

FiveParadox

Governor General
Dec 20, 2005
5,875
43
48
Vancouver, BC
Interesting Trend

An interesting change.

I am happy to see the "coming about" of the rash amount of separatism that seemed to have stemmed from the previous long-term, perhaps even "stagnant," some would say, Government of Canada — we should work as a nation to ensure that the people of the Province of Québec feel welcome and appreciated within Canada.
 

s_lone

Council Member
Feb 16, 2005
2,233
30
48
42
Montreal
It's probably all or nothing for Stephen Harper. If he fails to deliver his promises, the backlash could indeed be pretty strong. Support for sovereignty goes up and down... and up and down... I'm especially curious to see if he would dare to move back to the right with a majority government.
 

Numure

Council Member
Apr 30, 2004
1,063
0
36
Montréal, Québec
Jersay said:
The pressure is now on prime minister-designate Stephen Harper and his Conservatives to deliver for the province or risk alienating Quebec federalists for good, warn pundits.

"This is all promise and expectations," said Pierre Martin, a professor of political science at the University of Montreal.

Like I said before, the pressure is on Stephen Harper to deliver. Theirs new hope for Canada. Seperatism gains most of its support from a Failed federalism. If Harper, like he promised, can change things, then Seperatism will die out.

If he doesnt deliver on his promises to solve the Fiscal Imbalance, a seat for Québec at UNESCO, and respect for provincial juristictions... A referendum will happen, and chances are it will be succesful.
 

s_lone

Council Member
Feb 16, 2005
2,233
30
48
42
Montreal
Re: RE: Sovereignty support d

Toro said:
Numure said:
The most important promise is solving the Fiscal Imbalance.

Since the gross debt/GDP ratio of an independent Quebec would be, what, 100-120%?

Good news on the poll BTW. If Harper can deliver, he'll win more seats in Quebec, and Quebec will deliver him his majority.

But a Tory majority might be exactly what could trigger a new rise of seperatism if the Tories act too much to the right. It's an interesting situation... Very unpredicatble and exciting. Who knows where Canada will be in 2010?!
 

FiveParadox

Governor General
Dec 20, 2005
5,875
43
48
Vancouver, BC
Québec and the Fiscal Imbalance

I believe Toro was alluding to the fact that Québec would ask for more money from the Government of Canada, i.e., resolving the fiscal imbalance, while many would advocate for sovereignty; if Québec were to become sovereign, its payments from the Government would cease, and the imbalance would no longer be relevent.
 

Hank C

Electoral Member
Jan 4, 2006
953
0
16
Calgary, AB
yes if Harper can hold steady , keep the economy strong, and at least deliver on some of the issues I believe he will become popular. Many people (in part because of the fear mongering of the Liberals) were scared to death of a Conservative gov't. But if they see that mr Harper is not going to "privatise health care" and send troops to Iraq, or hand over Canadian sovereignty to the US......then I think even a "average" term in power will be enough to give the Conservative Party a majority next time.
 

s_lone

Council Member
Feb 16, 2005
2,233
30
48
42
Montreal
False results!

Hahaha! It seems CROP (the ones who did the polling) didn't analyse and verify their results appropriately and La Presse (the Montreal paper that reported these results) had to apologize in the following days for reporting false information.

It seems their was an unrepresentive amount of Anglos in the people polled... (too many from west Montreal).

The sovereignists may have taken a little blow with the Conservative breakthrough in Quebec but it's really not as bad as people think.
 

s_lone

Council Member
Feb 16, 2005
2,233
30
48
42
Montreal
Finder said:
on top of all this, I think this development will further hurt the sepritist agenda. A new left wing party was formed on the provincial level which will draw away alot of support from the Sepritists and even some Liberal support too.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNe...ue_political_party_060204/20060204?hub=Canada

The new leftist party will be called Québec Solidaire. They are also sovereignists but it is not their main priority. They probably will hurt the PQ in the next provincial election and might even help the Liberals get back in power by dividing the left. On the other hand, the ADQ could also divide the right if it manages to get back on its feet.

I think the PQ gets what it deserves. It started as a leftist party and slowly drifted to the center and even the right over the years. They can`t blame a leftist party for taking over the political void on the left. Some PQ members are already asking the population to vote strategically for the PQ to not divide the sovereignist vote. The PQ also has a culture of entitlement. It seems to think that it is the only voice speaking for sovereignty and that it is entitled to the sovereignist objective.

The problem with the PQ right now is that they really don`t present any clear vision of what kind of country they want. It's all about winning the next referendum.
 

Numure

Council Member
Apr 30, 2004
1,063
0
36
Montréal, Québec
Finder said:
on top of all this, I think this development will further hurt the sepritist agenda. A new left wing party was formed on the provincial level which will draw away alot of support from the Sepritists and even some Liberal support too.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNe...ue_political_party_060204/20060204?hub=Canada

Lol its a fusion of two parties.... That we're not very popular. I doubt they will all of a sudden become popular. Even the ADQ, the closest 3rd party in Québec, gets 4 seats in the free for all of the last elections.

If anything, just shows that it isnt only the PQ and ADQ that are fighting for Souvrainté.
 

Finder

House Member
Dec 18, 2005
3,786
0
36
Toronto
www.mytimenow.net
Well this new party is also a socially leftist party. Or social democratic. Many Quebecer's are social democrats and with both the liberals and the PQ on the right, right now they will most likely gain seats from both parties. I can't wait. =-D
 

Numure

Council Member
Apr 30, 2004
1,063
0
36
Montréal, Québec
Finder said:
Well this new party is also a socially leftist party. Or social democratic. Many Quebecer's are social democrats and with both the liberals and the PQ on the right, right now they will most likely gain seats from both parties. I can't wait. =-D

The PQ is still a leftist party.... And they havnt closed the door to an alliance with the new party.

I still doubt they will take any seats though... Though I do hope so, I'm tired of the PQ running the seperatist act, just like anyone else is. This new party would, if it can make a viable alternative, bring the debate a little further.

All they need is a very charismatic leader. Though I love Amir Khadir, and his ideas are truly progressive and worth a look at, he just isnt known.