Canadians set for political change

I think not

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Polls show Martin losing election to Conservatives

OTTAWA, Canada (AP) -- Canadians are set to determine whether to send the Liberal government packing after 13 years of rule and give the Conservatives a crack at repairing relations with Washington and tackling thorny issues such as health care, tax cuts, child care and crime.

All polls indicate Canadians are ready for change, disgusted by the broken promises and corruption scandals of the Liberal Party and willing to give Conservative leader Stephen Harper the benefit of doubt, despite fears he's too extreme in his views opposing abortion and gay marriage.

"Change is an issue for a lot of people," said Nelson Wiseman, a political scientist at the University of Toronto.

"This is the Liberals seeking their fifth consecutive term, so a lot of people believe that it's healthy to have a periodic alteration of parties, like the Americans, so that dynamic is out there."

Canada's 22.7 million registered voters will get their first inkling of what's in store shortly after voting ends in Newfoundland at 7 p.m. EST Monday (0000 GMT). If it's a tight race, the winner may not be known until the ballot counting begins in western British Columbia at 10 p.m. EST (0300 GMT Tuesday).

The Conservatives expect to pick up some seats in Atlantic Canada, but are pinning most of their hopes on Ontario, Canada's most populated province and a traditional bedrock of Liberal support.

They also have a shot at making inroads in Quebec, where they were shut out in the June 2004 elections.

Whichever way it goes, Canada's political landscape is in for dramatic change.

Even if the Liberals defy the polls and eke out a win with a minority government in the 308-seat House of Commons, Prime Minister Paul Martin will remain weak.

If Harper doesn't win a majority -- he'd have to increase Conservative seats from the current 98 to 155 -- he'll need support from opposition parties to get any legislation through the House, which is always a tough haul.

But if Harper succeeds in building a majority government, he could have the power to make sweeping changes to Canada's bureaucracy-laden social welfare programs, fulfill a pledge to cut the national sales tax from 7 to 5 percent and give more autonomy to the country's 13 provinces and territories.

He's also pledged to improve relations between Canada and United States, which comprises the world's largest trading bloc and conducts some $1.5 billion in business each day.

The Liberals have ticked off the Bush administration numerous times in recent years, condemning the war in Iraq, refusing to join the continental anti-ballistic missile scheme and loudly criticizing Washington for rejecting the Kyoto Protocol on greenhouse gas emissions and enacting punitive tariffs on Canadian lumber.

Many Canadians are not fond of U.S. President George W. Bush and have applauded the Liberal efforts. One Liberal television ad intimated that a Harper government would put a smile on Bush's face.

Harper has said he would reconsider the missile defense scheme, move beyond the Kyoto debate and establish different environmental controls, and tone down the "war of words" over lumber.

He has pledged to spend more on Canada's military, increase its peacekeeping mission and tighten border security by arming the Canadian side of the 4,000-mile (6,400-kilometer) border in an attempt to prevent terrorists and guns from crossing the frontier.

Though voters at 60,000 polling stations also will be considering candidates from the left-of-center New Democratic Party, the French-speaking separatist Bloc Quebecois and the Green Party of environmentalists, the battle is largely between Martin and Harper.

Martin, 67, has trumpeted the eight consecutive budget surpluses under the Liberals and sought to paint Harper as a right-winger posing as a moderate to woo mainstream voters. Martin has promised to lower income taxes, finalize a national child-care program and ban handguns.

He claims Harper supported the U.S.-led war in Iraq, which was opposed by many Canadians, and would try to outlaw abortion and overturn legislation approved in July granting marriage rights nationwide for gays and lesbians -- all of which Harper denies.

Corruption scandal
"People will have to choose between the ultraconservative, extreme right-wing agenda of Stephen Harper and the progressive, ambitious plan we're offering Canadians," Martin said at a campaign rally on Saturday.

The Liberal campaign appears to have worked with Joanna Lundy, a mental health worker in Vancouver, British Columbia. Though fed up with Liberal scandals, she will reluctantly cast her vote for them in an effort to block Harper from becoming prime minister.

"He's not open to diversity," she said. "I think he'll put us in the dark ages on women's issues, abortion issues, gay issues."

Harper, the youngest candidate at 46, has toned down the rightist rhetoric that cost him the last election and has painted the Liberals as a party that misspends taxpayers' money.

Martin's minority government was toppled in a no-confidence vote in November, after the Liberals were unable to overcome a corruption scandal involving millions of misspent tax dollars, a fiasco that prompted a federal inquiry.

Then, just as campaigning was in full swing, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police announced they were investigating a possible leak by Liberal government officials that appeared to have influenced the stock market.

Postal worker Tim Armstrong is among the many Canadians tired of those events.

"I think they lack credibility and integrity," he said. "Every time you turn around, there's another scandal. It just goes on and on and on."

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