Steven Hawking's Tutor
Posts: 4,838 
Location: Independent Palestine
Location: Independent Palestine
January 17th, 2006, 07:27 PM
Now, with five or six days left, I think some Liberal voters have finally listened to Jack Layton. The Conservatives are down 5 percentage points, and the NDP are up three.
EKOS January 16
Liberal: 29.6
Conservative: 35.8
NDP: 19.4
BLOC: 11.6
Green: 3.4
And as the chant goes,
NDP ... NDP ... NDP!
Also, on another topic, if the election was held on the 6th or 13th like Martin's strategists wanted, wouldn't Martin still be in power, technically.
Now, with five or six days left, I think some Liberal voters have finally listened to Jack Layton. The Conservatives are down 5 percentage points, and the NDP are up three.
EKOS January 16
Liberal: 29.6
Conservative: 35.8
NDP: 19.4
BLOC: 11.6
Green: 3.4
And as the chant goes,
NDP ... NDP ... NDP!
Also, on another topic, if the election was held on the 6th or 13th like Martin's strategists wanted, wouldn't Martin still be in power, technically.
Ponderous Intellect
Posts: 4,465
Videos: 1
Location: Surrey, British Columbia
Videos: 1
Location: Surrey, British Columbia
January 17th, 2006, 07:34 PM
One must keep in mind that even if the Conservative Party of Canada earns more seats than do the Liberals, they would not automatically become the Government; in a minority, the standing Prime Minister would have the first opportunity to secure the confidence of the House of Commons.
There is quite a delay after the election as to the opening of the House; when they do convene, there's no way to predict how the ball could drop. The Conservatives may be forced to remain on the Opposition side, even with a plurality, if the Right Honourable Paul Martin can play his cards right.
One must keep in mind that even if the Conservative Party of Canada earns more seats than do the Liberals, they would not automatically become the Government; in a minority, the standing Prime Minister would have the first opportunity to secure the confidence of the House of Commons.
There is quite a delay after the election as to the opening of the House; when they do convene, there's no way to predict how the ball could drop. The Conservatives may be forced to remain on the Opposition side, even with a plurality, if the Right Honourable Paul Martin can play his cards right.
Running out of ranks
Posts: 8,366 
January 17th, 2006, 07:57 PM
Good luck with that.
Quoting
One must keep in mind that even if the Conservative Party of Canada earns more seats than do the Liberals, they would not automatically become the Government; in a minority, the standing Prime Minister would have the first opportunity to secure the confidence of the House of Commons.
There is quite a delay after the election as to the opening of the House; when they do convene, there's no way to predict how the ball could drop. The Conservatives may be forced to remain on the Opposition side, even with a plurality, if the Right Honourable Paul Martin can play his cards right.
There is quite a delay after the election as to the opening of the House; when they do convene, there's no way to predict how the ball could drop. The Conservatives may be forced to remain on the Opposition side, even with a plurality, if the Right Honourable Paul Martin can play his cards right.
Good luck with that.
Ponderous Intellect
Posts: 4,465
Videos: 1
Location: Surrey, British Columbia
Videos: 1
Location: Surrey, British Columbia
January 17th, 2006, 08:04 PM
Jay, please review the events surrounding the House of Commons on or around 1925; I am sure that a site such as Wikipedia.org would have something on Canadian elections and Parliaments.
Jay, please review the events surrounding the House of Commons on or around 1925; I am sure that a site such as Wikipedia.org would have something on Canadian elections and Parliaments.
Steven Hawking's Tutor
Posts: 4,838
Location: Independent Palestine
Location: Independent Palestine
January 17th, 2006, 09:14 PM
If you want to hang onto power, and you have support from other parties to do it you will. Sorry, but that is politics.
It might not be liked, and the party might be annihilated in a later election however like I said before, if you want ot remain in power you will do what you have to do in the political structure of the parliment.
If you want to hang onto power, and you have support from other parties to do it you will. Sorry, but that is politics.
It might not be liked, and the party might be annihilated in a later election however like I said before, if you want ot remain in power you will do what you have to do in the political structure of the parliment.
Steven Hawking's Tutor
Posts: 4,995
Location: Florida, Hurricane Central
Location: Florida, Hurricane Central
January 17th, 2006, 09:18 PM
Watch the latest polls here
http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/polls.html
Watch the latest polls here
http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/polls.html
Member
Posts: 71
Location: Alberta
Location: Alberta
January 17th, 2006, 09:30 PM
Conservatives 42
Liberals 24
Looks like the electorate is making a decision.
Quoting
Yes, I just watched that decline on CTV.
Now, with five or six days left, I think some Liberal voters have finally listened to Jack Layton. The Conservatives are down 5 percentage points, and the NDP are up three.
EKOS January 16
Liberal: 29.6
Conservative: 35.8
NDP: 19.4
BLOC: 11.6
Green: 3.4
And as the chant goes,
NDP ... NDP ... NDP!
Also, on another topic, if the election was held on the 6th or 13th like Martin's strategists wanted, wouldn't Martin still be in power, technically.
EKOS January 16
Liberal: 29.6
Conservative: 35.8
NDP: 19.4
BLOC: 11.6
Green: 3.4
And as the chant goes,
NDP ... NDP ... NDP!
Also, on another topic, if the election was held on the 6th or 13th like Martin's strategists wanted, wouldn't Martin still be in power, technically.
Conservatives 42
Liberals 24
Looks like the electorate is making a decision.
Member
Posts: 71
Location: Alberta
Location: Alberta
January 17th, 2006, 09:32 PM
Quoting
No of course, that doesn't mean he won't try to form the government if he has fewer seats. It just means he said he won't.
Good luck with that.
Quoting
Except Martin has said, on the record, that he won't try to form the government if he has fewer seats.
One must keep in mind that even if the Conservative Party of Canada earns more seats than do the Liberals, they would not automatically become the Government; in a minority, the standing Prime Minister would have the first opportunity to secure the confidence of the House of Commons.
There is quite a delay after the election as to the opening of the House; when they do convene, there's no way to predict how the ball could drop. The Conservatives may be forced to remain on the Opposition side, even with a plurality, if the Right Honourable Paul Martin can play his cards right.
There is quite a delay after the election as to the opening of the House; when they do convene, there's no way to predict how the ball could drop. The Conservatives may be forced to remain on the Opposition side, even with a plurality, if the Right Honourable Paul Martin can play his cards right.
No of course, that doesn't mean he won't try to form the government if he has fewer seats. It just means he said he won't.
Good luck with that.
Executive Member
Posts: 9,534
January 17th, 2006, 09:41 PM
“CPAC-SES tracking has the Harper-led Conservatives ahead of the Martin Liberals by seven points. National support for the Conservatives stands at 37%, followed by the Liberals at 30%, the NDP at 18%, the BQ at 10% and the Green Party at 4%. In the key battleground of Ontario the Liberals have regained some ground and are now tied with the Conservatives at 38%. The Harper lead over Martin as the best PM is four points.” – Nik Nanos, President, SES Research.
Polling January 14 to 16, 2006 (Random Telephone Survey of 1,200 Canadians, MoE ± 2.9%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities of the respective campaigns. Longitudinal tracking charts on all measures can be found at the SES website at www.sesresearch.com.
All values in parenthesis are changes from our first day of tracking on December 1, 2005.
Canada Decided Voters (Tracking ended January 16, 2006)
CP 37% (+
LIB 30% (-7)
NDP 18% (+3)
BQ 10% (-4)
GP 4 (-1)
*16% of Canadians were undecided (NC)
In Quebec
BQ 44% (-6)
CP 22% (+13)
LIB 20% (-10)
NDP 12% (+6)
GP 3% (-3)
*21% of Quebecers were undecided (+10)
Outside Quebec
CP 41% (+4)
LIB 34% (-5)
NDP 20% (+1)
GP 5% (NC)
*14% of Canadians outside Quebec were undecided (-3)
In Ontario
CP 38% (+5)
LIB 38% (-5)
NDP 20% (+2)
GP 4% (-1)
*16% of Canadians outside Quebec were undecided (-4)
I sure wouldn't call the CPC a shoo-in by any stretch. This battle is for the right to lead a minority government. CPC, or Liberal, I don't know which.
“CPAC-SES tracking has the Harper-led Conservatives ahead of the Martin Liberals by seven points. National support for the Conservatives stands at 37%, followed by the Liberals at 30%, the NDP at 18%, the BQ at 10% and the Green Party at 4%. In the key battleground of Ontario the Liberals have regained some ground and are now tied with the Conservatives at 38%. The Harper lead over Martin as the best PM is four points.” – Nik Nanos, President, SES Research.
Polling January 14 to 16, 2006 (Random Telephone Survey of 1,200 Canadians, MoE ± 2.9%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities of the respective campaigns. Longitudinal tracking charts on all measures can be found at the SES website at www.sesresearch.com.
All values in parenthesis are changes from our first day of tracking on December 1, 2005.
Canada Decided Voters (Tracking ended January 16, 2006)
CP 37% (+
LIB 30% (-7)
NDP 18% (+3)
BQ 10% (-4)
GP 4 (-1)
*16% of Canadians were undecided (NC)
In Quebec
BQ 44% (-6)
CP 22% (+13)
LIB 20% (-10)
NDP 12% (+6)
GP 3% (-3)
*21% of Quebecers were undecided (+10)
Outside Quebec
CP 41% (+4)
LIB 34% (-5)
NDP 20% (+1)
GP 5% (NC)
*14% of Canadians outside Quebec were undecided (-3)
In Ontario
CP 38% (+5)
LIB 38% (-5)
NDP 20% (+2)
GP 4% (-1)
*16% of Canadians outside Quebec were undecided (-4)
I sure wouldn't call the CPC a shoo-in by any stretch. This battle is for the right to lead a minority government. CPC, or Liberal, I don't know which.
Bright Spark
Posts: 273
Location: Reentering the Fray at CC.net
Location: Reentering the Fray at CC.net
January 17th, 2006, 09:53 PM
How many times do I have to bring that up on this board that polls are not a good indicator of elections, due too many reasons? They are merely a barometer to measure the feel of the population.
Also by the fact that these polls are done pretty much daily, it shows that there is not a consistent number across the board to indicate their reflection on the general populaces outlook. Some say CPC has 42% some 37%, that’s a big difference when it comes to electorate populations in the millions.
If you rely on them to gauge your party’s standing, then prepare to be surprised come election day because that is the only day that POLLING ACTUALLY MEANS A DAMN.
How many times do I have to bring that up on this board that polls are not a good indicator of elections, due too many reasons? They are merely a barometer to measure the feel of the population.
Also by the fact that these polls are done pretty much daily, it shows that there is not a consistent number across the board to indicate their reflection on the general populaces outlook. Some say CPC has 42% some 37%, that’s a big difference when it comes to electorate populations in the millions.
If you rely on them to gauge your party’s standing, then prepare to be surprised come election day because that is the only day that POLLING ACTUALLY MEANS A DAMN.
Ponderous Intellect
Posts: 3,786
Location: Toronto
Location: Toronto
January 17th, 2006, 10:13 PM
Speaking as an NDP member, supporter and moderate. The NDP could show in a poll 40% but really unless we lived in a different electoral system, these numbers mean little. It will be very hard to unseat any sitting Liberal or Conservative, or even Bloc, it's about 10 times harder for an NDPer to unseat a Liberal or Conservative then it is for a Conservative. Because of how regional voting trends the NDP support is spread out more thinly and the Liberal and Conservative tend to be more concentraited, and the Bloc is the most dence support out of all of them, of course. Really NDP and even Green voter will most likely be disappointed in this election. BUT, it's fptp if the votes get split the right way anything is possibly.
Speaking as an NDP member, supporter and moderate. The NDP could show in a poll 40% but really unless we lived in a different electoral system, these numbers mean little. It will be very hard to unseat any sitting Liberal or Conservative, or even Bloc, it's about 10 times harder for an NDPer to unseat a Liberal or Conservative then it is for a Conservative. Because of how regional voting trends the NDP support is spread out more thinly and the Liberal and Conservative tend to be more concentraited, and the Bloc is the most dence support out of all of them, of course. Really NDP and even Green voter will most likely be disappointed in this election. BUT, it's fptp if the votes get split the right way anything is possibly.
