Steven Hawking's Tutor
Posts: 4,838 
Location: Independent Palestine
Location: Independent Palestine
January 16th, 2006, 04:59 PM
Ekos January 15, 2006 Seat Projection
Liberal: 50
Conservative: 156
NDP: 40
BLOC: 61*
Other: 1
Now if the BLOC, Conservatives and Liberal can go down a few seats and it turns into NDP seats I would be very happy. I think the NDP is getting better and better each election.
And if Harper screws up, people will turn to Layton.
NDP!
Ekos January 15, 2006 Seat Projection
Liberal: 50
Conservative: 156
NDP: 40
BLOC: 61*
Other: 1
Now if the BLOC, Conservatives and Liberal can go down a few seats and it turns into NDP seats I would be very happy. I think the NDP is getting better and better each election.
And if Harper screws up, people will turn to Layton.
NDP!
Steven Hawking's Tutor
Posts: 4,838
Location: Independent Palestine
Location: Independent Palestine
January 16th, 2006, 05:04 PM
NDP ... NDP!
Doesn't matter if Svend is elected or not. To me personally, if he is not elected it would be better for the NDP. So no one can claim any dirty scare tactics when the Conservatives turn out to be not so good for Canada.
NDP ... NDP!
Doesn't matter if Svend is elected or not. To me personally, if he is not elected it would be better for the NDP. So no one can claim any dirty scare tactics when the Conservatives turn out to be not so good for Canada.
Member
Posts: 179
January 16th, 2006, 09:35 PM
Wow. Simply wow.
While this projection would show, if realized, substantial increases for the NDP, the big story would be the Liberals reduced to third party status. If the Liberals are reduced to third party status that would definetly be the story of this election.
Wow. Simply wow.
While this projection would show, if realized, substantial increases for the NDP, the big story would be the Liberals reduced to third party status. If the Liberals are reduced to third party status that would definetly be the story of this election.
Member
Posts: 109
January 16th, 2006, 09:43 PM
That is quite the seat projection. With a conservative majority, and NDP as the official opposition, that would definitly be a story. I would love to see the Liberals reduced to 3rd party status.
As a matter of fact, it would make for an interesting parliment, to be able to see the Far Left as the opposition to a right wing party.
That is quite the seat projection. With a conservative majority, and NDP as the official opposition, that would definitly be a story. I would love to see the Liberals reduced to 3rd party status.
As a matter of fact, it would make for an interesting parliment, to be able to see the Far Left as the opposition to a right wing party.
Ponderous Intellect
Posts: 3,786
Location: Toronto
Location: Toronto
January 16th, 2006, 10:22 PM
I know I've said it before but! FPTP!!!!! It will screw the NDP because it has a long history of screwing the NDP out of seats and I doubt that the NDP's luck will change..... well maybe if it does and we get more seats then the Liberals maybe the NDP will support FPTP lmao!!! (J/K)
I know I've said it before but! FPTP!!!!! It will screw the NDP because it has a long history of screwing the NDP out of seats and I doubt that the NDP's luck will change..... well maybe if it does and we get more seats then the Liberals maybe the NDP will support FPTP lmao!!! (J/K)
Bright Spark
Posts: 273
Location: Reentering the Fray at CC.net
Location: Reentering the Fray at CC.net
January 16th, 2006, 11:08 PM
I’m with Finder on that….
These are just projections by some mathematicians in an office somewhere calculating polling data from reluctant voters. Ive been polled twice now and by the wording of each poll I have given two completely different answers to who I seem to be voting for.
The NDP will not be as fortunate as one thinks. As my predictions in the other thread states that the NDP will likely gain very little due to being marginalized by the Cons rise to power.
A lot of people do not like Jack Layton (well every party leader for that matter). He was the one that made me quit the NDP party. Hes NO Tommy Douglas, never will be.
I’m with Finder on that….
These are just projections by some mathematicians in an office somewhere calculating polling data from reluctant voters. Ive been polled twice now and by the wording of each poll I have given two completely different answers to who I seem to be voting for.
The NDP will not be as fortunate as one thinks. As my predictions in the other thread states that the NDP will likely gain very little due to being marginalized by the Cons rise to power.
A lot of people do not like Jack Layton (well every party leader for that matter). He was the one that made me quit the NDP party. Hes NO Tommy Douglas, never will be.
Ponderous Intellect
Posts: 3,786
Location: Toronto
Location: Toronto
January 16th, 2006, 11:14 PM
Nobody can be Tommy Douglas, but Tommy Douglas. He is a Canadian hero who much like any Canadian hero is barely known. But yes I think Tommy Douglas speaks out for Canadian Socialism and social democracy like no other could.
With that said I'm not a great fan of Ed but I thought Ed was pretty good too. No Tommy again. though
Quoting
Really the last two NDP leaders almost made me quit.
I’m with Finder on that….
These are just projections by some mathematicians in an office somewhere calculating polling data from reluctant voters. Ive been polled twice now and by the wording of each poll I have given two completely different answers to who I seem to be voting for.
The NDP will not be as fortunate as one thinks. As my predictions in the other thread states that the NDP will likely gain very little due to being marginalized by the Cons rise to power.
A lot of people do not like Jack Layton (well every party leader for that matter). He was the one that made me quit the NDP party. Hes NO Tommy Douglas, never will be.
These are just projections by some mathematicians in an office somewhere calculating polling data from reluctant voters. Ive been polled twice now and by the wording of each poll I have given two completely different answers to who I seem to be voting for.
The NDP will not be as fortunate as one thinks. As my predictions in the other thread states that the NDP will likely gain very little due to being marginalized by the Cons rise to power.
A lot of people do not like Jack Layton (well every party leader for that matter). He was the one that made me quit the NDP party. Hes NO Tommy Douglas, never will be.
Nobody can be Tommy Douglas, but Tommy Douglas. He is a Canadian hero who much like any Canadian hero is barely known. But yes I think Tommy Douglas speaks out for Canadian Socialism and social democracy like no other could.
With that said I'm not a great fan of Ed but I thought Ed was pretty good too. No Tommy again. though
Bright Spark
Posts: 273
Location: Reentering the Fray at CC.net
Location: Reentering the Fray at CC.net
January 16th, 2006, 11:24 PM
Finder,
I do not know if you heard Layton on CFRB 1010 this morning with Bill Carol.
Carol (a moderate Conservative) was questioning him about a lot of his platform, and he went after him for his flip-flop on the private care thing. Layton seemed to have a tough time handling some of the questions, I didn’t catch all of the interview but from what I heard there seemed to be a lot to Layton’s personality that we don’t see.
* Plus I got sick of all the donation letters I got from every charity across the commonwealth. I don’t mind giving to charity but I’m a middle class 24 year old man, I ain’t got the cash.
Finder,
I do not know if you heard Layton on CFRB 1010 this morning with Bill Carol.
Carol (a moderate Conservative) was questioning him about a lot of his platform, and he went after him for his flip-flop on the private care thing. Layton seemed to have a tough time handling some of the questions, I didn’t catch all of the interview but from what I heard there seemed to be a lot to Layton’s personality that we don’t see.
* Plus I got sick of all the donation letters I got from every charity across the commonwealth. I don’t mind giving to charity but I’m a middle class 24 year old man, I ain’t got the cash.
Bright Spark
Posts: 273
Location: Reentering the Fray at CC.net
Location: Reentering the Fray at CC.net
January 16th, 2006, 11:59 PM
When I say there is something about Layton I look at something like this.
What the hell is that. You don’t ask people to vote for you as a change of pace. You put out a party platform that works and appeals to the electorate.
This is a testament to his character that he is just an opportunist, and no better then any other party leader.
Its kind of sad since the party has a lot of good ideas.
When I say there is something about Layton I look at something like this.
Quote:
www.cbc.ca
Jack Layton wants unhappy Liberals to give their party a time-out and vote for the NDP on Jan. 23.
The Liberals need to go into "the repair shop," Layton said on Monday while in Toronto.
"Lend us your vote while the party you have supported in the past cleans itself up,"
Layton said on Monday at a news conference in Toronto.
"Vote for us just this once in this election."
Toronto has been electing mostly Liberal MPs for the past decade or more. Layton's is the only Toronto riding not held by a Liberal.
He's hoping to take some of those seats away and says Canadians want change in Ottawa.
"I'm asking people who supported the Liberal party in the past to vote for the NDP. Lend
us your vote while the The NDP hopes to reverse 2004, with some last minute poaching of Liberal supporters. Just this once, says Layton. But the change offered by the Conservatives, which according to Layton amounts simply to tax cuts, wouldn't be good for ordinary Canadians, he said.
"Ontarians know what tax cuts mean," he said, alluding to the Tory provincial government of Mike Harris. "Service cuts."
Layton began his appeal for disaffected Liberal votes last week when polls began to show the Conservatives were solidifying a lead in national support.
On Sunday, Layton spoke to supporters in Kenora, Ont., by phone, delivering his stump speech from Sault Ste. Marie because his plane had been diverted.
He doesn't want to lose a single opportunity to rally supporters in the final week of campaigning. He saw his support collapse during the final days of the 2004 election as wary voters switched to the Liberals in fear of a Conservative government.
The Liberals need to go into "the repair shop," Layton said on Monday while in Toronto.
"Lend us your vote while the party you have supported in the past cleans itself up,"
Layton said on Monday at a news conference in Toronto.
"Vote for us just this once in this election."
Toronto has been electing mostly Liberal MPs for the past decade or more. Layton's is the only Toronto riding not held by a Liberal.
He's hoping to take some of those seats away and says Canadians want change in Ottawa.
"I'm asking people who supported the Liberal party in the past to vote for the NDP. Lend
us your vote while the The NDP hopes to reverse 2004, with some last minute poaching of Liberal supporters. Just this once, says Layton. But the change offered by the Conservatives, which according to Layton amounts simply to tax cuts, wouldn't be good for ordinary Canadians, he said.
"Ontarians know what tax cuts mean," he said, alluding to the Tory provincial government of Mike Harris. "Service cuts."
Layton began his appeal for disaffected Liberal votes last week when polls began to show the Conservatives were solidifying a lead in national support.
On Sunday, Layton spoke to supporters in Kenora, Ont., by phone, delivering his stump speech from Sault Ste. Marie because his plane had been diverted.
He doesn't want to lose a single opportunity to rally supporters in the final week of campaigning. He saw his support collapse during the final days of the 2004 election as wary voters switched to the Liberals in fear of a Conservative government.
What the hell is that. You don’t ask people to vote for you as a change of pace. You put out a party platform that works and appeals to the electorate.
This is a testament to his character that he is just an opportunist, and no better then any other party leader.
Its kind of sad since the party has a lot of good ideas.
Ponderous Intellect
Posts: 4,465
Videos: 1
Location: Surrey, British Columbia
Videos: 1
Location: Surrey, British Columbia
January 17th, 2006, 12:02 AM
I can certainly understand the reasoning behind the request of the Honourable Jack Layton; without a move in support from persons who would otherwise vote for the Liberal Party of Canada, his party is going to continue to be seated near the Bar.
I can certainly understand the reasoning behind the request of the Honourable Jack Layton; without a move in support from persons who would otherwise vote for the Liberal Party of Canada, his party is going to continue to be seated near the Bar.
Genius
Posts: 953
Location: Calgary, AB
Location: Calgary, AB
January 17th, 2006, 12:07 AM
Quote:
...the thing is Layton is not subject to as much scrutiny as Harper or Martin, since the chances of him winning the election are about as much as me winning the lottery. I would bet that if Layton were leading in the polls there world be much more criticism and people would be attacking his socialist policies and economic outlook with unrelenting vigor. But since he is not in a position to win (although we might see some surprises in seats numbers) he unintentionally gets looked over, therefore avoids harsh criticism from the media and voters.
Layton seemed to have a tough time handling some of the questions, I didn’t catch all of the interview but from what I heard there seemed to be a lot to Layton’s personality that we don’t see.
Genius
Posts: 953
Location: Calgary, AB
Location: Calgary, AB
January 17th, 2006, 12:21 AM
Quote:
hmmm...as much as I belive anything can happen I do not see the NDP getting more that 25-30 seats max....I'll make a prediction for 25. I don't think the Liberals will fall to as low as 50.....I'll say around 80.......I estimate the Torys will take around 145 seats... and the remaining would go to the bloc (around 55-60)
Ekos January 15, 2006 Seat Projection
Liberal: 50
Conservative: 156
NDP: 40
BLOC: 61*
Other: 1
Liberal: 50
Conservative: 156
NDP: 40
BLOC: 61*
Other: 1
Ponderous Intellect
Posts: 4,465
Videos: 1
Location: Surrey, British Columbia
Videos: 1
Location: Surrey, British Columbia
January 17th, 2006, 12:25 AM
I would concur, Hank C.
However much I would like to see the views in the House of Commons further diversified, I cannot foresee the New Democratic Party of Canada making any major "breakthrough" come voting day.
While the support of the NDP nation-wide may have risen, I do not think that, at this point, the support is high enough in concentrated numbers to elect NDP members to the House as Members of Parliament in more than twenty-five, perhaps thirty electoral districts.
I would concur, Hank C.
However much I would like to see the views in the House of Commons further diversified, I cannot foresee the New Democratic Party of Canada making any major "breakthrough" come voting day.
While the support of the NDP nation-wide may have risen, I do not think that, at this point, the support is high enough in concentrated numbers to elect NDP members to the House as Members of Parliament in more than twenty-five, perhaps thirty electoral districts.
Ponderous Intellect
Posts: 3,786
Location: Toronto
Location: Toronto
January 17th, 2006, 12:59 AM
Well if you look at the 308 seats up for graps, the NDP are in about 80 battlegrounds where they could win those seats. So they could win up to 80 seats depending on a lot of different things. Voter trends, voter turnout, strategic voting and so on.
Now! the NDP won't win all 80 of those seats. If they did.... Well it would be like betting on a lotto, it's possible to win but the odds are just stacked against you. Last election the NDP had about 32 "too close to calls" when most of the stations stoped prodcasting. By morning they had 21 seats, by the late morning they ended up with 19. Really this is where I say the NDP just have no luck when it comes to FPTP because really last election a lot of people thought they'd hold onto those 32 too close to calls which the NDP were given because of the early leads and trends.
Now with all this said when you factor in the scandel the NDP could easyly win those 32 seats they almost had last election plus a dozen more which were extremly close as well. Put we are just not facotring in the scandel. We are factoring in the conservative magority fear in the left, the cold weather, voter turnout, and even Harpers new appeal to NDP BC swing voters who vote conservative.
So the NDP could win up to 80 seats this election I'd say it is in there power to win them. But will they? I think I'll bet on the lotto and believe in my chances there before believing the NDP could possibly pull off the luck needed for 80 seats. On the other hand would I be surprised if they won 40.... No... Would I think they were still cheated out of seats... Yes... But this is FPTP, it's like going to Disney land on acid... It's just trippy.
Well if you look at the 308 seats up for graps, the NDP are in about 80 battlegrounds where they could win those seats. So they could win up to 80 seats depending on a lot of different things. Voter trends, voter turnout, strategic voting and so on.
Now! the NDP won't win all 80 of those seats. If they did.... Well it would be like betting on a lotto, it's possible to win but the odds are just stacked against you. Last election the NDP had about 32 "too close to calls" when most of the stations stoped prodcasting. By morning they had 21 seats, by the late morning they ended up with 19. Really this is where I say the NDP just have no luck when it comes to FPTP because really last election a lot of people thought they'd hold onto those 32 too close to calls which the NDP were given because of the early leads and trends.
Now with all this said when you factor in the scandel the NDP could easyly win those 32 seats they almost had last election plus a dozen more which were extremly close as well. Put we are just not facotring in the scandel. We are factoring in the conservative magority fear in the left, the cold weather, voter turnout, and even Harpers new appeal to NDP BC swing voters who vote conservative.
So the NDP could win up to 80 seats this election I'd say it is in there power to win them. But will they? I think I'll bet on the lotto and believe in my chances there before believing the NDP could possibly pull off the luck needed for 80 seats. On the other hand would I be surprised if they won 40.... No... Would I think they were still cheated out of seats... Yes... But this is FPTP, it's like going to Disney land on acid... It's just trippy.
Ponderous Intellect
Posts: 4,465
Videos: 1
Location: Surrey, British Columbia
Videos: 1
Location: Surrey, British Columbia
January 17th, 2006, 01:02 AM
One Member per constituency; if they were elected from outside this framework, then those "extra" Members of the New Democratic Party of Canada would be accountable to absolutely nobody. They are not being cheated, but rather defeated.
But you already knew where I stood on this issue, lol.
I would be quite surprised if the NDP were to take more than, say, thirty seats or so during this election; that's just my instinct, though, and my instincts don't exactly have a "sparkling" track record.
One Member per constituency; if they were elected from outside this framework, then those "extra" Members of the New Democratic Party of Canada would be accountable to absolutely nobody. They are not being cheated, but rather defeated.
But you already knew where I stood on this issue, lol.I would be quite surprised if the NDP were to take more than, say, thirty seats or so during this election; that's just my instinct, though, and my instincts don't exactly have a "sparkling" track record.
Ponderous Intellect
Posts: 3,786
Location: Toronto
Location: Toronto
January 17th, 2006, 01:13 AM
Well Paradox, if the Liberals get 15-25% of the vote and they only get a handful of seats, like the PC's did in the 90's then don't come to me saying they were cheated, even if they were in a democratic sence.
I'd hate to see the Liberals and Liberal voters cheated like NDP and Conservative voters have in the past BUT maybe then we'd finally get Liberal party members to see the mistakes in a pure FPTP.
Anyhow I highly doubt the Liberals will lose as badly as the PC's had done. It would take a lot of bad luck on there part. There are still way too many liberal "safe" ridings. If Ken Dryden loses for instance in my riding I'd be amazed.
Quoting
One Member per constituency; if they were elected from outside this framework, then those "extra" Members of the New Democratic Party of Canada would be accountable to absolutely nobody. They are not being cheated, but rather defeated. But you already knew where I stood on this issue, lol.
I would be quite surprised if the NDP were to take more than, say, thirty seats or so during this election; that's just my instinct, though, and my instincts don't exactly have a "sparkling" track record.
But you already knew where I stood on this issue, lol.I would be quite surprised if the NDP were to take more than, say, thirty seats or so during this election; that's just my instinct, though, and my instincts don't exactly have a "sparkling" track record.
Well Paradox, if the Liberals get 15-25% of the vote and they only get a handful of seats, like the PC's did in the 90's then don't come to me saying they were cheated, even if they were in a democratic sence.
I'd hate to see the Liberals and Liberal voters cheated like NDP and Conservative voters have in the past BUT maybe then we'd finally get Liberal party members to see the mistakes in a pure FPTP.
Anyhow I highly doubt the Liberals will lose as badly as the PC's had done. It would take a lot of bad luck on there part. There are still way too many liberal "safe" ridings. If Ken Dryden loses for instance in my riding I'd be amazed.
