Will Brexit and Trump come to Canada?

[Machjo]

'Free trade might be good for the economy, but it hasn't helped me.'

I remember reading this or a similar quote a while ago.

A few decades ago, when everyone was on the free-trade bandwagon, governments were also promising loads of cash for trades, professional, and other education for unskilled labour and others to help them benefit from free trade. The free-trade deals materialized, but the money for training never did or was paltry at best.

The unemployed, the underpaid, and others waited for the help to transition to free trade, but it never materialised. Their numbers grew, especially after 2008. Again, nothing.

Today, though there is no denying that free trade has benefited the overall economy, it has also left ever more people behind. Some of these people, while acknowledging the benefits of free trade, are angry as hell and are now saying that they have nothing to lose and so might as well tear the whole system down so that we can all feel their pain. Some of them aren't stupid and acknowledge quite consciously that their vote won't benefit them. They're just hoping that it will spread the pain as a wake-up call.

In many respects, Canada has made the same mistake as other countries: embark on free-trade, promise trades and professional education for the negatibvely affected to thelp them transition, and then forget about them for the most part. It appears it's now catching up to us. So, could the left--behinds eventually turn to a Trump-like figure in Canada?

 

[Blackleaf]

Trump-like figures will be turning up all over the place in the West, including Canada.

Britain will get its own Trump if May doesn't deliver Brexit and deliver it well.

 

[Machjo]

Trump-like figures will be turning up all over the place in the West, including Canada.

Britain will get its own Trump if May doesn't deliver Brexit and deliver it well.

to be fair to May though, she can only offer a deal to other states and blocs like the EU or accept offers from them, but can't force one on them.

 

[Blackleaf]

to be fair to May though, she can only offer a deal to other states and blocs like the EU or accept offers from them, but can't force one on them.

Yeah, she can. The EU is going to be May's bitch.

The EU is now demanding that Britain, before it leaves, pay the pensions of thousands of eurocrats.

I hope May tells the EU to get stuffed.

 

[Machjo]

But I agree that this can also cause a vicious cycle. As governemnts become more protectionist, more people get left behind. As more people get left behind, they vote for ever more protectionist governemnts. Yet free trade, though, better, is little better since the core problem is not rooted in free trade but rather in education. Free trade opens opportunities that protectionism hinders, but only those with the right education can exploit those opportunities. The rest get left behind either way.

Yeah, she can. The EU is going to be May's bitch.

The EU is now demanding that Britain, before it leaves, pay the pensions of thousands of eurocrats.

I hope May tells the EU to get stuffed.

She probably will. All I'm saying is that she won't be able to force the EU to give the Uk full access to its markets. That will be a decision for the EU to make.

 

[Blackleaf]

But I agree that this can also cause a vicious cycle. As governemnts become more protectionist, more people get left behind. As more people get left behind, they vote for ever more protectionist governemnts. Yet free trade, though, better, is little better since the core problem is not rooted in free trade but rather in education. Free trade opens opportunities that protectionism hinders, but only those with the right education can exploit those opportunities. The rest get left behind either way.

The EU is protectionism to the core.

She probably will. All I'm saying is that she won't be able to force the EU to give the Uk full access to its markets. That will be a decision for the EU to make.

The EU can stop trading with Britain all it likes - it'll just hurt the EU more.

 

[Machjo]

I agree that the EU is too protectionist and to its own detriment. Within the EU, the UK could nudge it towards freer trade. But outside the EU, the UK is left out in the cold. Compare the size of the two markets and then look at them on a map. You're right next to one another. You depend on the EU whether you like it or not.

 

[Blackleaf]

Within the EU, the UK could nudge it towards freer trade.

No, it couldn't. The UK had little influence in the EU.

But outside the EU, the UK is left out in the cold.

You mean like Canada is? And New Zealand? And Australia? And America? And China? And Japan? And Russia? And Brazil? And Tunisia? And Estonia? And South Korea? And Fiji? And Uruguay? And South Africa? And Jamaica?

You depend on the EU whether you like it or not.

The EU needs Britain more than Britain needs the EU.

Britain has a trade deficit with the EU but a trade surplus with the rest of the world.

British trade with the EU is in rapid decline.

 

[Machjo]

If Trump could tear up NAFTA, Canada would quicly become an economic has-been. We can only be thankful that most Republicans in the Senate and the House oppose him on protectionism.

 

[Blackleaf]

If Trump could tear up NAFTA, Canada would quicly become an economic has-been. We can only be thankful that most Republicans in the Senate and the House oppose him on protectionism.

Well I've got no problem with NAFTA. It's merely a trade block of independent, sovereign nation states. It is a completely different sort of entity than the EU, which is an actual burgeoning nation state in its own right, a huge country.

 

[Machjo]

Well I've got no problem with NAFTA. It's merely a trade block of independent, sovereign nation states. It is a completely different sort of entity than the EU, which is an actual burgeoning nation state in its own right, a huge country.

But NAFTA is also a trading-block-type of trade deal imposing country-of-origin requirements for example. Plus it's free-trade light that does not give us complete access to each others' financial markets for example. Banking and other financials are a major UK export to the EU... for now.

Canada could not just walk away from NAFTA's protectionist clauses for the sake of free trade with the world. We're too dependent on the US economically. Sure NAFTA allows us to negotiate tariff reductions with other countries for example, but tariffs are low worldwide already. The trade deals of today must go beyond tariffs but NAFTA does limit Canada's maneuverability on that front.

That said, for Canada, NAFTA is better than nothing. And if the UK wants free trade beyond just tariff reductions, whether it likes it or not, it will probably have to join some trading bloc or other, since so many countries are in one now. The EUY would make the most sense, but I suppose the next best option for the UK might be to try to join NAFTA... if Trump will allow it.

f he does not tear NAFTA for Canada and Mexico, it will be only because the Senate and the House will oppose it so as to maintain the status quo on that front. But as for the UK trying to join while Trump is in power will be a tough slog. Sure Canada could put a fgood word in for the UK, but compare our population to the US'. And unfortunately even Canada would be forced to respect NAFTA's country of origin clauses against the UK so as to respect the NAFTA.

 

[Blackleaf]

But NAFTA is also a trading-block-type of trade deal imposing country-of-origin requirements for example. Plus it's free-trade light that does not give us complete access to each others' financial markets for example. Banking and other financials are a major UK export to the EU... for now.

Let's face facts here: despite what the Remainers say, the EU is becoming less and less important as a trade destination for the UK.

British dependency on EU trade is at a record low and its importance as a destination for UK trade is likely to keep declining.

The EU is not as important for the UK as the defeated Remainers would have you believe.

Canada could not just walk away from NAFTA's protectionist clauses for the sake of free trade with the world. We're too dependent on the US economically. Sure NAFTA allows us to negotiate tariff reductions with other countries for example, but tariffs are low worldwide already. The trade deals of today must go beyond tariffs but NAFTA does limit Canada's maneuverability on that front.

That said, for Canada, NAFTA is better than nothing. And if the UK wants free trade beyond just tariff reductions, whether it likes it or not, it will probably have to join some trading bloc or other, since so many countries are in one now. The EUY would make the most sense, but I suppose the next best option for the UK might be to try to join NAFTA... if Trump will allow it.

f he does not tear NAFTA for Canada and Mexico, it will be only because the Senate and the House will oppose it so as to maintain the status quo on that front. But as for the UK trying to join while Trump is in power will be a tough slog. Sure Canada could put a fgood word in for the UK, but compare our population to the US'. And unfortunately even Canada would be forced to respect NAFTA's country of origin clauses against the UK so as to respect the NAFTA.

From what I've been reading a recent poll shows support for NAFTA is weak amongst Canadians.

 

[Machjo]

Let's face facts here: despite what the Remainers say, the EU is becoming less and less important as a trade destination for the UK.

British dependency on EU trade is at a record low and its importance as a destination for UK trade is likely to keep declining.

The EU is not as important for the UK as the defeated Remainers would have you believe.



From what I've been reading a recent poll shows support for NAFTA is weak amongst Canadians.

Some Canadians do want to renegotiate NAFTA, and I suspect it's towards more protectionism unfortunately. I would like to renegotiate it towards more open borders. So seeing the trends, I would fear the direction a renegotiation would take in the present political environment.

Those Canadians who oppose freer trade with the US just don't realise how dependent Canada is on the US economically.

Now if the US did tear up NAFTA, and since the EU's rules does not allow a non-European state to join it, then maybe I'd propose Canada join Caricom (the Caribean Community) if Caricom's rules should allow it and encourage the UK to join it too. However, for Canada that would be a very poor second choice after NAFTA.