How long will Trudeau's luck last?
If you’re a federal Liberal, these are the best of times. Continuing what appears to be this country’s longest political honeymoon ever, the Trudeau government just scored a 56 per cent approval rating in the latest Abacus Data poll, a full eight months after its election. An Angus Reid survey recently delivered a 63 per cent approval rating for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
And if an election were held today, Abacus found that 44 per cent of Canadians would vote for the Liberals, 28 per cent would cast their ballots for the Tories and a scant 16 per cent would back the NDP. Forget sunny ways: The Liberals are blinding their opponents with a laser beam.
To be fair, both the Conservatives and NDP are labouring under one major disadvantage — neither party has a permanent leader. Conservative interim leader Rona Ambrose is acquitting herself admirably, but will not be sticking around past May 2017. NDP leader Thomas Mulcair was turfed by his party at their convention this spring, after winning an anemic 48 per cent support in his leadership review; he’ll be officially out by October 2017.
Trudeau, meanwhile, strides across the world stage from Paris to Washington to Tokyo, winning accolades from the international community. Back home, he can take credit not only for his party’s election, but for its resurrection. Vaulting from third place to majority government is no small feat, especially considering he entered the election campaign as the underdog.
In light of this fact, should the opposition parties be resigned to a waiting game, pinning their hopes on their respective leadership contests? Not completely. But they need to “pace themselves”, as my dear late father always advised me — to take the long view and change the nature and focus of their attacks, which have been largely ineffective so far.
First, the opposition parties need to realize that the average Canadian has little interest in what happens in the House of Commons. ‘Elbowgate’ offered a perfect illustration of this. This incident in May saw Trudeau cross the floor, grab the Conservative whip and elbow NDP MP Ruth Ellen Brosseau in the chest.
It didn’t dent Trudeau’s popularity one whit; if anything, the situation backfired on the New Democrats, who overplayed it as a form of gender-based violence. The public shrugged and looked away, more concerned about the fate of the Blue Jays in the playoffs than NDP MP Niki Ashton’s claim that “people would call what happened here assault.”
The takeaway: Don’t assume what plays big in Ottawa does so in the living rooms of the nation. Focus on issues that affect people’s daily lives, not inside-baseball.
Second, the Conservatives (especially the Conservatives) need to stop ridiculing Trudeau as “PM selfie” or comparing him to the Kardashians, as Manitoba MP Candice Bergen did in May when Trudeau appeared in a Tourism Canada ad.
Canadians know this government is image-obsessed: The Angus Reid poll cited above found that 54 per cent think the government prioritizes style over substance. But that same poll found that nearly 2 in 3 Canadians approve of the PM’s performance.
In other words, voters like ‘PM Selfie’. If they’d felt as much affection for Prime Minister Stephen Harper, they would have mobbed him for pictures too, and the Tories would have been crowing about how wonderful it was, instead of comparing him to a reality TV star. The takeaway: Don’t attack a leader for being popular. It didn’t work for the Democrats when they tried it on Ronald Reagan, and it won’t work against Trudeau either.
Third, take your own advice and focus on substance. The Liberals are putting a lot of product in the policy window: assisted dying legislation, CPP reform (ie: more taxes), government handouts (first GM, next Bombardier?). They have more to come: marijuana legalization, democratic reform and (possibly) a federal carbon tax.
Hammer away at the negative implications of these. Do it in local media, not national, where arguments tend to fly at 30,000 feet. And use your leadership contests to advance alternative visions for the country, contrasting them with what’s on offer from the federal government: more spending, more debt and, likely, a higher tax burden down the road. The takeaway: Attack the policies, not the person, and don’t just oppose — propose.
How long will Trudeau’s luck last?
If you’re a federal Liberal, these are the best of times. Continuing what appears to be this country’s longest political honeymoon ever, the Trudeau government just scored a 56 per cent approval rating in the latest Abacus Data poll, a full eight months after its election. An Angus Reid survey recently delivered a 63 per cent approval rating for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
And if an election were held today, Abacus found that 44 per cent of Canadians would vote for the Liberals, 28 per cent would cast their ballots for the Tories and a scant 16 per cent would back the NDP. Forget sunny ways: The Liberals are blinding their opponents with a laser beam.
To be fair, both the Conservatives and NDP are labouring under one major disadvantage — neither party has a permanent leader. Conservative interim leader Rona Ambrose is acquitting herself admirably, but will not be sticking around past May 2017. NDP leader Thomas Mulcair was turfed by his party at their convention this spring, after winning an anemic 48 per cent support in his leadership review; he’ll be officially out by October 2017.
Trudeau, meanwhile, strides across the world stage from Paris to Washington to Tokyo, winning accolades from the international community. Back home, he can take credit not only for his party’s election, but for its resurrection. Vaulting from third place to majority government is no small feat, especially considering he entered the election campaign as the underdog.
In light of this fact, should the opposition parties be resigned to a waiting game, pinning their hopes on their respective leadership contests? Not completely. But they need to “pace themselves”, as my dear late father always advised me — to take the long view and change the nature and focus of their attacks, which have been largely ineffective so far.
First, the opposition parties need to realize that the average Canadian has little interest in what happens in the House of Commons. ‘Elbowgate’ offered a perfect illustration of this. This incident in May saw Trudeau cross the floor, grab the Conservative whip and elbow NDP MP Ruth Ellen Brosseau in the chest.
It didn’t dent Trudeau’s popularity one whit; if anything, the situation backfired on the New Democrats, who overplayed it as a form of gender-based violence. The public shrugged and looked away, more concerned about the fate of the Blue Jays in the playoffs than NDP MP Niki Ashton’s claim that “people would call what happened here assault.”
The takeaway: Don’t assume what plays big in Ottawa does so in the living rooms of the nation. Focus on issues that affect people’s daily lives, not inside-baseball.
Second, the Conservatives (especially the Conservatives) need to stop ridiculing Trudeau as “PM selfie” or comparing him to the Kardashians, as Manitoba MP Candice Bergen did in May when Trudeau appeared in a Tourism Canada ad.
Canadians know this government is image-obsessed: The Angus Reid poll cited above found that 54 per cent think the government prioritizes style over substance. But that same poll found that nearly 2 in 3 Canadians approve of the PM’s performance.
In other words, voters like ‘PM Selfie’. If they’d felt as much affection for Prime Minister Stephen Harper, they would have mobbed him for pictures too, and the Tories would have been crowing about how wonderful it was, instead of comparing him to a reality TV star. The takeaway: Don’t attack a leader for being popular. It didn’t work for the Democrats when they tried it on Ronald Reagan, and it won’t work against Trudeau either.
Third, take your own advice and focus on substance. The Liberals are putting a lot of product in the policy window: assisted dying legislation, CPP reform (ie: more taxes), government handouts (first GM, next Bombardier?). They have more to come: marijuana legalization, democratic reform and (possibly) a federal carbon tax.
Hammer away at the negative implications of these. Do it in local media, not national, where arguments tend to fly at 30,000 feet. And use your leadership contests to advance alternative visions for the country, contrasting them with what’s on offer from the federal government: more spending, more debt and, likely, a higher tax burden down the road. The takeaway: Attack the policies, not the person, and don’t just oppose — propose.
How long will Trudeau’s luck last?
