but NDP say analysis is invalid
shocking
Alberta’s climate plan could lead to 15,000 fewer jobs, a $4-billion drop in household income, as well as lower corporate profits, oil exports and overall economic activity.
That’s what Alberta Treasury Board and Finance officials initially projected last November in an internal analysis conducted for the NDP government — data the province doesn’t deny, but insists was based on invalid assumptions that make the information irrelevant.
The province hasn’t released a fully detailed economic impact assessment, but preliminary government analysis from November — dated about a week before the climate strategy was unveiled by Premier Rachel Notley — shows an array of potential consequences.
According to a projection for Finance Minister Joe Ceci and obtained by the Herald, the climate plan would lower the province’s gross domestic product by 1.0 to 1.5 per cent by 2022, “due to the decline in energy investment, weaker production and lower consumer spending.”
Oil exports would be crimped by 0.5 per cent from the business-as-usual (BAU) case in 2018-19, the study says.
Consumer spending would fall by almost two per cent by 2022, “due to the impact on employment and slower wage growth.”
As well, corporate profits would decline about $1.5 billion, or 1.7 per cent, from the BAU scenario by 2022.
These key impacts are based on several assumptions rolled out by the province on Nov. 22, such as implementing a $30-a-tonne carbon tax by 2018, phasing out coal-fired power plants and investing in renewable energy.
However, the NDP government says the study made a number of incomplete or out-of-date assumptions.
Most significantly, it assumed about half of the money raised by the carbon tax would go directly to general government revenues, which didn’t happen.
For a cash-strapped government, this would have been an enticing prospect.
Instead, carbon tax revenue will be spent on consumer rebates, promoting green energy, mitigating the impact on coal communities and other goals.
Provincial officials insist these assumptions would alter the key impacts, but don’t say what the updated figures would be for the final plan’s effect on Alberta’s economy, job numbers or other measurements.
“It was a snapshot in time, and cabinet deliberated and made a number of decisions that are not reflected in this note,” says Environment Minister Shannon Phillips.
“It’s an analysis, quite frankly, of what we didn’t do.”
OK.
But there’s much here the government did do, such as introduce a carbon tax that will reach $30 a tonne within two years, and plan to speed up the closure of coal power.
more
Varcoe: Leaked forecast suggests climate plan could cost Alberta billions, but NDP say analysis is invalid | Calgary Herald
shocking
Alberta’s climate plan could lead to 15,000 fewer jobs, a $4-billion drop in household income, as well as lower corporate profits, oil exports and overall economic activity.
That’s what Alberta Treasury Board and Finance officials initially projected last November in an internal analysis conducted for the NDP government — data the province doesn’t deny, but insists was based on invalid assumptions that make the information irrelevant.
The province hasn’t released a fully detailed economic impact assessment, but preliminary government analysis from November — dated about a week before the climate strategy was unveiled by Premier Rachel Notley — shows an array of potential consequences.
According to a projection for Finance Minister Joe Ceci and obtained by the Herald, the climate plan would lower the province’s gross domestic product by 1.0 to 1.5 per cent by 2022, “due to the decline in energy investment, weaker production and lower consumer spending.”
Oil exports would be crimped by 0.5 per cent from the business-as-usual (BAU) case in 2018-19, the study says.
Consumer spending would fall by almost two per cent by 2022, “due to the impact on employment and slower wage growth.”
As well, corporate profits would decline about $1.5 billion, or 1.7 per cent, from the BAU scenario by 2022.
These key impacts are based on several assumptions rolled out by the province on Nov. 22, such as implementing a $30-a-tonne carbon tax by 2018, phasing out coal-fired power plants and investing in renewable energy.
However, the NDP government says the study made a number of incomplete or out-of-date assumptions.
Most significantly, it assumed about half of the money raised by the carbon tax would go directly to general government revenues, which didn’t happen.
For a cash-strapped government, this would have been an enticing prospect.
Instead, carbon tax revenue will be spent on consumer rebates, promoting green energy, mitigating the impact on coal communities and other goals.
Provincial officials insist these assumptions would alter the key impacts, but don’t say what the updated figures would be for the final plan’s effect on Alberta’s economy, job numbers or other measurements.
“It was a snapshot in time, and cabinet deliberated and made a number of decisions that are not reflected in this note,” says Environment Minister Shannon Phillips.
“It’s an analysis, quite frankly, of what we didn’t do.”
OK.
But there’s much here the government did do, such as introduce a carbon tax that will reach $30 a tonne within two years, and plan to speed up the closure of coal power.
more
Varcoe: Leaked forecast suggests climate plan could cost Alberta billions, but NDP say analysis is invalid | Calgary Herald
