Economists know about the economy.
Who knew?
Our economic problems run deeper than brief dips in GDP
With Tuesday’s release of quarterly GDP data, Statistics Canada confirmed that Canada fell into recession in the first half of the year. Canada’s economy (adjusted for inflation) shrank slightly in the spring (for the second quarter in a row), hence meeting economists’ traditional definition of the dreaded “R”-word. It is likely to be short and shallow, a far cry from the global conflagration of 2008-09. But a recession it certainly is. Coming six years into a lacklustre recovery (the weakest since the Second World War), weary Canadians probably question whether the last recession ever really ended.
Not surprisingly, federal Conservatives are scurrying to minimize the political fallout, going as far as redefining the very term. Conservative candidate Jason Kenney argues that a “discrete sectoral downturn” doesn’t really count as a recession. Conservative Leader Stephen Harper claims the downturn is limited to one industry, and that 80 per cent of the economy is “healthy and growing.” (The statistics tell a different story: most of the 20 broad industries tracked by Statistics Canada contracted during the worst months of the downturn.)
The economists’ traditional rule of thumb is admittedly arbitrary, but it has applied for decades, and an election campaign is hardly the time to mess with it. Moreover, the Conservatives themselves baked this very definition into their own recent balanced budget law – passed just before the writ was dropped, in a symbolic effort to distance themselves from their own history of deficits. They enshrined the two-quarter rule in actual law, and now they are stuck with it.
Nevertheless, it is certainly true that Canada’s economic problems go much deeper than a quarter-to-quarter drop in GDP, and it would be unfortunate if we now put too much emphasis on that one politically explosive statistic. Canada’s economy was serially disappointing (to use Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz’s phrase) long before oil prices tanked last year; that’s the only way that bad news in one sector (oil) could pull the whole country into negative territory. I hope the election campaign now starts to address some of these deeper challenges:
Investment: For years, Canada relied on energy megaprojects to lead business investment. But that engine is now sputtering badly. Expensive corporate tax cuts didn’t produce any measurable uptick in investment. We need new strategies to elicit badly needed capital spending – both private and public.
Exports: This government’s trade strategy consists almost exclusively of signing lots of free-trade deals. They’ve inked six, and are negotiating several more (including the Trans-Pacific Partnership). Yet Canada’s actual exports hardly grew at all under Conservative rule – by far the worst record in postwar history. It turns out that producing goods and services that foreigners actually want to buy is a lot more complicated than signing deals and waving them about.
Productivity: Free markets and low taxes are supposed to automatically spur efficiency. But Canada’s measured productivity performance has been abysmal: growing less than 1 per cent per year, badly lagging previous governments and most of our trading partners. Upgrading, innovation and investment are the prerequisites for productivity – yet we’ve gone backward in every area.
These are more profound and important economic challenges than the momentary ups and downs of the GDP cycle. They explain why the Conservatives’ brand as “capable economic managers” has been so tarnished – and not just by this year’s lousy numbers.
In a longer-term view, the Harper government has presided over the weakest economic era in Canadian postwar history. That’s not entirely the government’s fault. But enough of the damage was self-inflicted to cast major doubt on its economic credibility.
With the GDP numbers under our belt, let’s hope the election debate now turns to more important policy questions. Let’s talk about the fundamental drivers of Canadian economic progress: working more (and working more productively); investing in people, innovation, and capital (private and public); producing a full portfolio of excellent goods and services we can sell to the rest of the world.
Our economic problems run deeper than brief dips in GDP - The Globe and Mail
Who knew?
Our economic problems run deeper than brief dips in GDP
With Tuesday’s release of quarterly GDP data, Statistics Canada confirmed that Canada fell into recession in the first half of the year. Canada’s economy (adjusted for inflation) shrank slightly in the spring (for the second quarter in a row), hence meeting economists’ traditional definition of the dreaded “R”-word. It is likely to be short and shallow, a far cry from the global conflagration of 2008-09. But a recession it certainly is. Coming six years into a lacklustre recovery (the weakest since the Second World War), weary Canadians probably question whether the last recession ever really ended.
Not surprisingly, federal Conservatives are scurrying to minimize the political fallout, going as far as redefining the very term. Conservative candidate Jason Kenney argues that a “discrete sectoral downturn” doesn’t really count as a recession. Conservative Leader Stephen Harper claims the downturn is limited to one industry, and that 80 per cent of the economy is “healthy and growing.” (The statistics tell a different story: most of the 20 broad industries tracked by Statistics Canada contracted during the worst months of the downturn.)
The economists’ traditional rule of thumb is admittedly arbitrary, but it has applied for decades, and an election campaign is hardly the time to mess with it. Moreover, the Conservatives themselves baked this very definition into their own recent balanced budget law – passed just before the writ was dropped, in a symbolic effort to distance themselves from their own history of deficits. They enshrined the two-quarter rule in actual law, and now they are stuck with it.
Nevertheless, it is certainly true that Canada’s economic problems go much deeper than a quarter-to-quarter drop in GDP, and it would be unfortunate if we now put too much emphasis on that one politically explosive statistic. Canada’s economy was serially disappointing (to use Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz’s phrase) long before oil prices tanked last year; that’s the only way that bad news in one sector (oil) could pull the whole country into negative territory. I hope the election campaign now starts to address some of these deeper challenges:
Investment: For years, Canada relied on energy megaprojects to lead business investment. But that engine is now sputtering badly. Expensive corporate tax cuts didn’t produce any measurable uptick in investment. We need new strategies to elicit badly needed capital spending – both private and public.
Exports: This government’s trade strategy consists almost exclusively of signing lots of free-trade deals. They’ve inked six, and are negotiating several more (including the Trans-Pacific Partnership). Yet Canada’s actual exports hardly grew at all under Conservative rule – by far the worst record in postwar history. It turns out that producing goods and services that foreigners actually want to buy is a lot more complicated than signing deals and waving them about.
Productivity: Free markets and low taxes are supposed to automatically spur efficiency. But Canada’s measured productivity performance has been abysmal: growing less than 1 per cent per year, badly lagging previous governments and most of our trading partners. Upgrading, innovation and investment are the prerequisites for productivity – yet we’ve gone backward in every area.
These are more profound and important economic challenges than the momentary ups and downs of the GDP cycle. They explain why the Conservatives’ brand as “capable economic managers” has been so tarnished – and not just by this year’s lousy numbers.
In a longer-term view, the Harper government has presided over the weakest economic era in Canadian postwar history. That’s not entirely the government’s fault. But enough of the damage was self-inflicted to cast major doubt on its economic credibility.
With the GDP numbers under our belt, let’s hope the election debate now turns to more important policy questions. Let’s talk about the fundamental drivers of Canadian economic progress: working more (and working more productively); investing in people, innovation, and capital (private and public); producing a full portfolio of excellent goods and services we can sell to the rest of the world.
Our economic problems run deeper than brief dips in GDP - The Globe and Mail
